Piniella names 5 Cub starters

[JohnBriggs12]

Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Hill, Marquis.

Lieber goes to bullpen. Marshall figures to be sent down unless he lands lefty spot in pen. That would be a surprise since Pignatiello has been unscored upon all spring.

No mention of who will face Brewers in opening series (after Zambrano and presumably Lilly) but it won't be Rich Hill that's for sure. Hill's had command issues all spring and Piniella wants to seperate his lefties.. Both Marquis and Lieber have thrown the ball well in Arizona and except for one outing, so has Dempster. Lilly's been so-so, and Zambrano's been lights out.

[Patrick425]

Again, other than adding Fukudome, what have the Cubs done this off season to make the "experts" love them so much? I keep hearing about all their "off-season" moves. Huh? Who? They also got Lieber, but he's going to be in the bullpen. I don't get it.

[TooLiveBrew]

Nothing, Patrick. Plus, Fukudome's not much more than a lateral move from the RF production they had in 2007, so you could make the case that the Cubs haven't really improved themselves at all.

 

 

Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Hill, Marquis.

That's great news for the Brewers.

[splitterpfj]

In addition to Fukudome, the one obvious change in their lineup is having Soto for the full season.

[jloos19]

Plus, now Piniella is moving Theriot to the leadoff spot, which is just wonderful considering his spectacular .330 OBP. At least he's gritty...

[valpocrewsader]

The Cubs last year got off to a slow start as they adjusted to their new manager, new players, and dealt with in-fighting. Some here may not agree, but I expect their 2008 performance to be more like the Cubs team that finished the season 63-46 than the Cubs team that started off 22-31. We can contend, but I see them as the clear favorite.

[TooLiveBrew]

The Cubs played over their heads for that stretch imo. Maybe not by a ton, but I don't think it's a good bet to use that record to predict 2008.

 

In addition to Fukudome, the one obvious change in their lineup is having Soto for the full season.

Unfortunately for the Cubs, Soto has no way to replicate his ridiculous BABIP from 2007. They're still probably going to get better production from the C spot that the Brewers, but Soto is probably not going to be the star in 2008 that many are convinced he already is.

[patrickgpe]

Wood was named the closer today. That should be very interesting, I am not sure if he is going to be able to hold up in such a roll. I am surprised they took Dumpster out of that role.

[joepepsi]

Soto pounded the ball in Iowa last year, but it was his 3rd year with the team. I don't think he's a future star. I think he's the next Ramon Hernandez. At least on offense; don't know how he is on defense.

 

Dempster was a good starter one year, back when he was 23 with the Marlins, 8 years ago. If he pitches 200 innings he's going to walk 100+ batters. I see no reason to believe that after 7 seasons as a crappy starter and/or overrated reliever he is suddenly going to "get it" and become a valuable starter.

 

Hill and Lilly are solid pitchers. Lilly should regress a bit, Hill should improve.

 

Zambrano is a bulldog and a workhouse and a warrior and a whatever-other-cliche you want to use, but his ERA and HR rate has climbed steadily of the past 4 seasons. In 2004 he gave up only 14 in 209+ innings with a 2.75 ERA. Last year it was 23 dingers, a 3.95ERA in 216 innings.

 

Marquis is a decent middle rotation guy, sort of a righty Lilly.

 

To me it's a rotation of Capuanos, Bushes, and Vargases.

 

I say, bring on Opening Day. Let's play the games and see who's better. I like the Brewers' chances.

[TooLiveBrew]

Soto pounded the ball in Iowa last year, but it was his 3rd year with the team.

 

He had a BABIP over .400. Ridiculously fluky.

[tristarscoop]

I try not to be too much of a homer, but it seems like every year there are a couple of writers who are all over the Cubs and they throw out their obligatory "this is the year" stuff and I just don't see how we're supposed to buy it year after year. As has been discussed above, they haven't made any moves to prove that this year's team is just going to out-win last year's team. I just fail to see why everyone is on their bandwagon to start each season.

[joepepsi]

They have 3 dangerous hitters, Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez. I think it's safe to say both Lee and Soriano have their best years behind them, though both are dangerous. Ramirez is probably still in his prime. Fukudome is a wild card of sorts, but the rest of the lineup just isn't that impressive. THe Brewers are clearly the better offensive team.

 

Cubs' pitching seemed to overachieve last year, while the Brewers' pitching underachieved. Brewers have the talent and depth to be one of the best staffs in the league, but they had that last year too and failed. So, they have a lot to prove. And Ned has to get better at handling the bullpen.

 

Frankly, I don't think it will be that close between these two teams. Either the Brewers will struggle out of the gate, Yost will be fired and they won't ever get into the race. Or everything will work reasonably well and they'll win the division by 10 games.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think it's going to be a relatively tight race, fwiw.

 

Cubs' pitching seemed to overachieve last year, while the Brewers' pitching underachieved. Brewers have the talent and depth to one of the best staffs in the league, but they had that last year too and failed. So, they have a lot to prove. And Ned has to get better at handling the bullpen.

The defenses were what made the difference in '07, I think. Looking at that Cubs rotation, I just don't see it being able to replicate last year's success. The Brewers' improved D will help elucidate the superior talent in 2008, imo.

[owbc]

I'll take off the Brewer goggles and say that the Cubs have a solid rotation this year.

 

The Brewers have the superior offense, but it isn't by much. The Cubs have Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano as their three big hitters. We have Fielder, Braun, and maybe Hart as our big three. Weeks, Hardy, Hall, etc. all have major question marks. Dempster may not have started in ages, but Villanueva/Parra haven't started a full season either. They've done well in short stints, but does that mean they are good for the long haul? Wood may have injury concerns, but Gagne was terrible for the Red Sox last year and has the steroid cloud following him.

 

So I think the Brewers have the potential to finish ahead of the Cubs and have a higher ceiling than the Cubs. I expect they will play about the same and the little things like defense and managing will be the 1-2 games that decides it.

 

I don't think the Cubs rotation will duplicate last year's success either. But there is no way the Cubs will fall to 10 under .500 again this year. There is also no way the Brewers will blow as many 3 run leads as last year.

 

The bottom line is that this year's NL is a battle to see who gets to fall to the Mets in the NLCS.

[TooLiveBrew]

The Brewers have the superior offense, but it isn't by much.

I couldn't disagree more. Some may have their questions about some of our guys, but compare them to what ChC is running out there. A terrible SS, avg. 2B, young CF (who I happen to like) with a lot to prove, and a C for whom hardly anyone can forecast production.


As for the rotation, just go spot-by-spot:

Sheets > Zambrano (admittedly Z gets the edge if Benny only logs 125 IP or so)
Gallardo > Lilly
Suppan >/= Dempster
Bush = Hill (this one's an odd comparison, since they're very different pitchers, but probably about even)
Vargas/CV/Parra > Marquis

[trwi7]

Bush = Hill (this one's an odd comparison, since they're very different pitchers, but probably about even)

There's no way Bush=Hill. Hill>Bush.

[LUKE232323]

Hill is no question better than Bush.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hey, I was trying to not be a homer!

 

(but I agree)

[endaround]

Not so sure about that. Keep in mind that Bush and Hill are the same age and while Hill was better last year, Bush was better in 2006. I'd likely take Hill over Bush but people act like Hill has a lot of upside when last year could easily have been a career year at age 27.

 

Bush's FIP in 2007 4.53

 

Hill's FIP in 2007 4.28

[joepepsi]

The bottom line is that this year's NL is a battle to see who gets to fall to the Mets in the NLCS.

boy howdy, I don't know about that. The Mets were 54-56 after June 1 last year. Of course Santana, Pedro, and Maine as their top 3 is a good start, but the other two spots are iffy. The offense is really old and creaky except for Reyes and Wright. The Braves were 3rd in runs scored last year and had the 3rd lowest ERA. I realize Santana makes any team better, but the Braves look like the best bet in the East to really break out.

[homer]

Even during the beginning of the season, the Cubs run differential predicted that they were underachieving. Eventually the law of averages caught up and they started winning. Their Pythagorean record was only 2 games better than the actual finish so the Cubs did about what they should have last year.

[rluzinski]

The projections I've seen put the Cubs at around 88 wins for 2008, so it looks like they agree that the Cubs haven't improved much from last year. They are a decent team but nothing special. I'll conceed that they probably have a little mroe talent than the Brewers right now but it's pretty close. It should be a fun season.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

So how does this all change when the Cubs get Brian Roberts?

[Klements Bratwurst]

So how does this all change when the Cubs get Brian Roberts?

The Cubs will be marginally better until Dempster, Marquis, or Hill blow up and need to be taken out of the rotation. Then they only have one additional piece to throw into the rotation in Lieber, because they traded all their pitching depth to get a slight upgrade over DeRosa at second base.

 

Never mind the fact that DeRosa will turn into a cancer on the North Side.

 

 

[naivin]

Plus, now Piniella is moving Theriot to the leadoff spot, which is just wonderful considering his spectacular .330 OBP. At least he's gritty...

 

If this pan's out, it is the best news of all, as Soriano's unwillingness to do any sort of situational hitting whatsoever, makes him a rather average hitter in other spots in the lineup.

 

Cubs have a very solid team, but I guess I'm not buying the hype. This move however would also seem to indicate that the Brian Roberts deal is likely.