Designated Lineup Thread - Kendall Batting 9th?; Lack of Left-Handed Hitters SOLVDD (#203); Hall To Bat 5th, Hart 6th (#216)

[logan82]

obsessedwithbrewcrew wrote:

If the pitcher bats 8th, he can bunt the runner(s) over, leaving first base open.

I hope it doesn't lead to more sac bunts. That would more than negate the benifit of batting the pitcher 8th.

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

We will have Hall bat 6th, Cameron hit 7th, and the pitcher hit 8th. How many rallies will we kill with 3 straight K's this year?

[logan82]

We will have Hall bat 6th, Cameron hit 7th, and the pitcher hit 8th. How many rallies will we kill with 3 straight K's this year?

Not much different than 3 straight groundouts.

[Terok Balefire]

It actually looks like Cameron is the favorite for the two hole, which I approve rather than having Hardy there.

[splitterpfj]

If Yost thinks that Kendall will indeed match his .375 career OBP, he should bat him 2nd, not 9th.

 

My issue with that is, Kendall will not be in the lineup 25% of the time, that means one of the other regulars would hit second 25% of the time, and hit down in the order 75% of the time, I'm not in favor of that. I think Kendall at nine is worth trying, it actually makes sense to me. Reducing double plays makes sense, and so does having a runner on for Weeks, which is more likely with Kendall at nine. I don't mind the pitchers dropping a bunt down every time up, to see if Kendall can drive a guy in with a base hit, I'd rather try that than hope Kendall doesn't hit a sharp grounder with a runner on first.

 

The pitchers can bat ninth 25% of the time, I think this is at least worth trying.

[RU Rah Rah]

I haven't followed the pitcher-batting-eighth debate very closely up until this point. Is the team really going to net 30 runs?

 

(I am not saying it's impossible or anything; I'd just like to see some kind of statistical analysis.)

[1992casey]

The general idea is that you gain a slight advantage by hitting a 'regular' guy 9th and the pitcher 8th. But there should also be some statistical analysis using Kendall vs. what can be expected from current Brewer pitchers. It looks like the Brewers have done that, although I question whether the difference would be as much as 25-30 runs.

 

There's a post (from Sam, I think) way back in the beginning of this thread that I find compelling, though. Kendall has a pedestrian batting average and a lousy slugging percentage, but he does seem to be able to walk. It seems to me that having those walks ahead of the top of the order would be quite useful--probably more useful than they'd be in front of the pitcher.

 

Note: some of the recent quotes in this thread (in posts entitled "Split from Rosenthal thread") come from this article.

[TerraceReserved]

The difference definitely isn't 25-30 runs. I don't have The Book on hand, but if I remember correctly it's around 5-10 runs added.

[1992casey]

I believe it's less than that if you test with a lineup including a pitcher and 8 equal 'typical' players. I can't go further than that, either, because my copy of "The Book" is 200 miles away. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[rluzinski]

On the issue of protection, it is true that sabrmetric studies have shown no significant increase in offensive production between a protected hitter and a non-protected one. But they have confirmed that good hitters see more walks when weak hitters bat behind them than they do with stronger hitters "protecting" them. So in the respect that pitchers may choose to take the bat out of a player's hands because a less effective batter is on deck, it seems there is a case to be made for protection.

 

Why would getting more walks be a bad thing? If the hitter is disciplined, he's going to increase his OBP while maintaining his power. Unless he's being followed by a pitcher, that's going to result in more runs scored for his team, which is all that really matters.

 

Furthermore, most sabrmetric studies on the issue have not looked at the pitch-by-pitch analysis of the situation. Could it be that batters with better protection do actually see more fastballs? If so, wouldn't that also be a case for the theory of protection?

 

Here's something related to that:

 

http://actasports.com/sow.php?id=139

 

Very small differences though. i think it's reasonable to assume a protected hitter might see slightly more fastballs but I don't suspect that it's going to translate into a significant difference in performance. In our case, we aren't talking about Braun being protected by a pitcher, after all. Hart is a damn good hitter.

 

As for Kendall, his career stats are meaningless at this point in his career. A .330 OBP is a good guess for him this year.

[Fear The Chorizo]

As for Kendall, his career stats are meaningless at this point in his career. A .330 OBP is a good guess for him this year.

 

His career stats are meaningless because he just had LASIK...his OBP will be north of .390!

 

I'll honestly take whatever production Kendall provides as long as his OBP is north of .320 and his only limitation defensively is a poor CS% - he brings athleticism to the catching position that Estrada never could have, and should have a better relationship with the pitching staff given his reputation.

 

I like the outside the box thinking, and I like even more that Yost hasn't even thought of hitting Kendall in the #2 spot in the order.

[1992casey]

I'm getting the impression that Ned is heading in this direction:

 

#2 Cameron

#3 Braun

#4 Fielder

 

I'm afraid of whoever he might choose to hit #2 while Cameron is out of the lineup.

 

And as logan3825 said in the Pujols thread, it does seem odd that a manager would be considering the #9 thing without also considering the #3 thing.

 

Here's what I'd do whether the pitcher is hitting ninth or not:

 

#2 Braun

#3 Cameron

#4 Braun

 

And until the suspension is over:

 

#2 Braun

#3 Whoever

#4 Fielder

[olliegjw]

The difference definitely isn't 25-30 runs. I don't have The Book on hand, but if I remember correctly it's around 5-10 runs added.

With the Brewers lineup it may be 25-30 runs. "The Book" deals with average lineups. Every team and every situation is different. I'm guessing that the Brewers statistical analyst would use actual/projected numbers of Brewers players as opposed to league averages.

[rluzinski]

I agree that every situation is different but 25-30 runs is A LOT. If the difference between an average situation and Kendall is less double plays, there's no way.

 

Yost is pretty much crazy. On one hand, he's willing to think way out of the box and bat Kendell 9th. On the other hand, he breaks the cardinal sabermetric lineup rule by batting his maybe 6th best hitter 2nd. If you want to follow "The Book", you take this:

 

"Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2 and #4 slots. Your fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality."

 

And using your favorite projection system (I'll use ZiPS):

 

http://rluzinski.blogspot.com/2008/01/2008-brewer-offensive-zips-projections.html

 

You come up with something like this (with the the pitcher 8th thing):

 

Hart

Fielder

Hall

Braun

Weeks

Cameron

Hardy

Pitcher

Kendell

 

Of course, there are other factors to consider, but any lineup that doesn't have Cameron featured anywhere near the top of the lineup would be a good start in my book.

[sbrylski]

Of course, there are other factors to consider, but any lineup that doesn't have Cameron featured anywhere near the top of the lineup would be a good start in my book.

 

Really? You don't think much of Cameron? I consider Hardy, Hall, and Mike pretty interchangeable - 330 OBPs with 400-odd SLGs.

[rluzinski]

Hardy and Cameron, sure. But Hall has put up a couple very good years recently and isn't 35 years old. I still like Cameron but I like Fielder, Braun, Hart, Weeks and Hall more.

[sbrylski]

Hardy and Cameron, sure. But Hall has put up a couple very good years recently and isn't 35 years old. I still like Cameron but I like Fielder, Braun, Hart, Weeks and Hall more.

Cameron has had the higher OBP of he and Hall each of the last three seasons. I think its a crapshoot on who does better next season between those two, I don't think Hall has any more upside than he's shown already. Hardy has the potential to be a 360/500 guy if everything goes right. (Not expecting it, just saying he could have a season or two like that during his career.)

 

[logan82]

I would have thought that Weeks should bat leadoff because of his huge BA/OBP split. The Book says that your leadoff hitter should be a guy who gets on base a lot by means other than hits. So I would take that to mean a high OBP/Low BA guy would bat leadoff. I also agree with Sam that Cameron, Hall and Hary are pretty interchangable. Just my opinion though.

 

By the way, I was just thinking that my criticsm of LaRussa batting Pujols 3rd would also apply to Yost batting Baun or Fielder 3rd, but Casey beat me to it. I am still hoping that Yost will bat either Fielder or Braun 2nd. Doing one and not the other just seems to be odd to me as I would think there is more actual benifit to moving Braun/Fielder to #2 than switching Kendall and the pitcher.

 

I thought the Book said closer to 2-3 runs for switching the pitcher and 8th hitter. 25-30 runs is thought to be 2.5-3 wins. I highly doubt that to be the case. I am not sure if a totally optimized lineup like Russ has would add up to 25-30 runs over a traditional lineup.

[TerraceReserved]

Ya, I checked the Book and the difference is 2 runs per year, given average hitters in the rest of the lineup. And even with the Brewers lineup, or any lineup, there's no way the difference is 25-30 runs. Sure, it could be more, but I'd expect a modest gain, from 2-5 runs. I honestly have no idea how our stat's guy came up with those numbers.

[TerraceReserved]

Wow. I may be completely wrong. Using Pinto's Lineup Analysis tool, I just found some very surprising results.

I used this lineup:
Weeks
Cameron
Fielder
Braun
Hart
Hall
Hardy
Kendall
Pitcher

I used Zips projections for all the position players, and I averaged the career averages of the 5 most likely starting pitchers. (Sheets, Suppan, Gallardo, Bush, Cappy) Their line was .193/.231 (OBP/SLG)

With all that plugged in, a lineup with the pitcher batting 9th scores 4.962 runs per game. With the pitcher batting 8th, that number jumps to 5.128. So heres the run gain:

Pitcher 8th: 831 RS
Pitcher 9th: 804 RS

Wow. That's 27 runs, almost 3 wins! Either I did something wrong in the process, or this strategy will add 25-30 runs over the season.

Edit: I wondered whether having Gallardo's stellar stats last year affected the results, so I regressed his performace to .250/.350, then ran the same process. There was no difference at all. Still 27 runs gained.

[Biestie1]

I don't own the book, but one of the authors was on The Homer's show the other day, and he said batting the pitcher 8th would get the Crew 2-3 more wins. What that equates to in runs...?

[sbrylski]

I don't own the book, but one of the authors was on The Homer's show the other day, and he said batting the pitcher 8th would get the Crew 2-3 more wins. What that equates to in runs...?

20-30, just as TR got above and what the Brewers guys are saying.

Tell me, how nice would it be if your job was to do what TR did (run some lineup sims) then report to DM and Yost, and call it a week.

[rluzinski]

I know that lineup tool is fun but it's based on bad math. The basis of that tool is finding the value of a specific player in a specific position in an average ML lineup. How can you use that to analyse a non-traditional lineup? The Book goes this route:

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/introducing-markov-chains/

 

A simulator could do it as well.

[ozzybourne]

put the book away! there is no way this stat analysis can predict the effect on the line up that this pitcher batting 9th will have on a bunch of players who have been stars at every level and are not used to it.

 

the effect of 2-3 runs per year and the UNKNOWN effect of the pitcher in the 8th spot is not worth the risk for this team. let's focus on the in game managing decisions and the pitching staff first.

[logan82]

The biggest extreme I have seen or heard about in lineup building was 5 wins per year. That was an optimized lineup compared to the absolute worst lineup, pitcher leading off. So a difference of 50 runs. I have a hard time believing that switching your 2 worst hitters in the lineup would have a 25-30 run difference if leading off with your pitcher and batting Fielder last would make a 50 run difference.