Designated Lineup Thread - Kendall Batting 9th?; Lack of Left-Handed Hitters SOLVDD (#203); Hall To Bat 5th, Hart 6th (#216)

[Never Outhustled]

Hardy is not one of the slowest baserunners on the team. Somewhere in the middle, iirc.

 

 

Somewhere in the middle? Are you counting pitchers? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

4 of the other 7 starting position players are clearly faster (Weeks, Braun, Hart, Cameron) as are bench players Counsel and Gwynn. Hall and Fielder are pretty similar to Hardy. Hall appeared to be playing heavier and running slower than usual last season. Fielder is faster than he looks (though that's not really saying much), and may even have decent speed. Kendal was clearly faster in his prime and is likely still a tick faster now. Kendal has 162 career steals with only 77 CS. Hardy has 3 steals with 4 CS in his career. Gross is likely also a tick faster. Dillon and Rivera would be the only guys one could suggest are slower than Hardy, and that's even by a fairly slim margin.

 

 

 

His OBP will rise nicely in 2008 imo. He doesn't K much, and has a good eye at the plate. I'd be surprised if he walks less than 50 times this season.

His OBA was lower in 2007 than it was as a rookie. That makes it tough to say for sure that it will make a huge jump this year, especially when you look at his minor league numbers.

 

Hardy's career OBP is .321. A .321 OBP is better than 11 teams got out of the SS position in 2007, better than 10 teams in 2006 and better than 17(!) teams in 2005. Granted shortstops have lower offensive output than most positions, but one of the best ways to judge a player is to judge him against players at his position. He holds his own even if it is middling to a little below average.

This thread is clearly about constructing lineups. What position a player player should have no bearing on where he bats in the lineup. In constructing a lineup, we should only be comparing how players compares offensively

 

 

 

I'm not bashing Hardy, he has good power and can be considered an above average defender, and could continue to improve if he can maintain his strength throughout the season better. He is clearly an asset to this team.

 

I'm simply saying Hardy has never shown any of the traits desired in a table setter, and shouldn't be used in that fashion on a team as talented as this one.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hall and Fielder are pretty similar to Hardy.

 

As is Kendall. So by my count that puts Hardy in a tier with 4 of the 8 starters, and he's faster than Dillon & Munson/Rivera. Slower than Hart/Braun/Weeks/Cam/Gwynn (if you even think he's got a spot on the 25-man once Cam comes back)/Counsell.

 

Pretty much sounds like in the middle to me.

His OBA was lower in 2007 than it was as a rookie. That makes it tough to say for sure that it will make a huge jump this year, especially when you look at his minor league numbers.

 

I think you're going to be surprised by J.J. this season, then. His power alone is enough reason to expect growth in his OBP, not to mention that he has a good eye and avoids Ks. Hardy's best spot is 7th, imo.

[Time for a Miller]

I'll just throw my line-up out there after watching and reading this thread over the course of the last few days/weeks.

 

Weeks

Fielder

Hart

Braun

Cameron

Hardy

Hall

Pitcher

Kendall

 

This will never be the lineup and we've given a lot of thought to an issue that really won't make that much of a difference. It's more important for the guys to understand and accept their role so they are happy players. Maybe that means not giving into the Sabermetrics unless you can convince your players of its quality. Perhaps swapping Fielder and Braun would look acceptable on paper without a big statistical differnce if Braun can hit near where he did last year.

[logan82]

You know we actually have pretty good team speed. Nobody is really a slug.

[zurch1818]

According to the Brewers Website, it looks like it near official that Kendall will be batting ninth. Interesting move.

[sbrylski]

According to the Brewers Website, it looks like it near official that Kendall will be batting ninth. Interesting move.

 

Awesome. Now, just get Braun in the 2nd spot and I'll be very happy with the lineup.

 

"But it doesn't bother me, really," Kendall said. "I'm not just saying that. Whatever it takes to win. I mean, I'm at a point in my career -- I always want to win -- that if that's what they want, that's fine.

 

"I have no problem with it."

 

Great attitude to hear.

[ballnglove]

I'm still confused as to why it's so good to bat Kendall ninth. Doesn't that make it more likely that the pitcher would be pulled for a pinch hitter earlier in the ballgame? And wasn't the whole issue with the staff last year that they didn't go deep enough into ballgames? And isn't this offense pretty potent enough already, even without trying to squeak out an extra run here or there with this rather unconventional strategy?

 

I guess I'm a little late to the discussion, but one thing I didn't see in the discussion about the Braun/Fielder flip (though I could've missed it):

 

What makes everyone so certain that Braun will see a significant ammount of SB opportunities batting behind Prince? I mean, consider all the things that have to happen. Ryan must A) reach 1st base, B) have 2nd base open, C) be less than two outs (preferably), and D) be in the right situation (pitch count, game score, pitcher's ability to hold runners) to swipe a bag. And in the big scheme of things, how many more times is this situation REALLY going to present itself batting 4th instead of 3rd, and when it does, is it REALLY going to make a huge difference in the overall offensive production?

 

Personally, I prefer Braun stay ahead of Fielder for two simple reasons: speed, and discipline. Rather than use his speed as a reason to bat behind Fielder, wouldn't it make just as much sense to want his speed on the basepaths ahead of Fielder for all those non-HR hits Prince stands to collect? Or conversely, would you really rather have Prince running the bases from 1st to 3rd or 2nd to Home on a Braun single, or perhaps 1st to Home on a Braun double, rather than the other way around? And in terms of discipline, I would imagine the bat would be taken out of Fielder's hands with Braun hitting behind him more than it would be taken out of Braun's hands the other way around.

 

I just don't see the overall benefits for either of these two strategies. I believe that whatever advantage there would be for getting more runs with Kendall batting 9th or getting Braun more steals by batting him 4th are small and negligible over the course of an entire 162 game season. And more importantly, both moves potentially take away from other, more delicate parts of the overall team.

[logan82]

Just a short recap..

Your 3 best hitters whould hit 1, 2, and 4.

#1 the player who reaches base the highest percentage of the time by means other than hits.

Lowest SLG guy of the three. He comes up the most with nobody on base. Mostly because of starting the game, but also because the poorest hitters bat at the bottom of the lineup.

#2 is your third best hitter

#4 is your best hitter highest SLG of the three

This keeps Braun and Fielder from stealing eachothers rbi opportunities

#5 is your 4th best hitter

#3 is your 5th best hitter

the #3 hitter comes up the most often with 2 outs so you don't want one of your better hitters coming up with 2 outs.

[Ennder]

I like Braun batting behind Fielder because I think Fielder needs the protection more than Braun does. Fielder is the only lefty in the lineup and teams are going to be approaching him as the 'one guy we don't want to beat us'. If they pitch around him and his BBs jump I want Braun and Hart behind him because the rest of the options on the backend of the lineup cannot hit righties.

 

If Fielder sits at around a .400 OBP and I think he will against righties, Braun is going to be getting up with runners on and Hart batting behind him and he is still going to see plenty of good pitches.

[Biestie1]

I'm not crazy aobut Braun batting behind Fielder either. I'd like to keep Braun in front of him to guarantee he gets some pitches to hit. He really doesn't have a very good eye yet.

 

As far as the pitcher 8th, it gives the top of your order more ABs. It does give the pitcher spot more ABs, but since there's not always a pitcher batting in that spot, the advantage of having the top of your order hit more is more pronounced than the disadvantage of giving a pitcher more ABs. So goes the theory.

 

Your right about them being negligible differences. You could hit the pitcher 4th and probably only lose a few more games.

[zurch1818]

This keeps Braun and Fielder from stealing eachothers rbi opportunities

Two takes on this comment:

One, if this is the problem, then why not put Corey Hart in between Fielder and Braun and then keep the pitcher batting ninth. This way they won't steal each others rbis and we won't be giving away an out. By putting the pitcher eighth, we have given up all hope on the 6 and 7 hole guys. This means we have given up hope on Bill Hall, someone that has hit 35 homers in a season.

 

Two, why would they ever steal each others rbis? If you are successful 30 percent of the time in baseball, that is good. If Prince fails to get someone in from second base, Ryan will be right behind him to knock him in. If your worried about someone taking rbi opportunities, there won't be a second chance to drive the person in from second base. If Prince were to drive in that person, he could also get on second base and won't take Ryan's rbi opportunity.

 

[logan82]

Hall is probably a 20-25 HR guy. If we bat Fielder and Braun back to back that is 40 PA either way that will be with the bases empty for the next guy.

[ballnglove]

I like Braun batting behind Fielder because I think Fielder needs the protection more than Braun does. Fielder is the only lefty in the lineup and teams are going to be approaching him as the 'one guy we don't want to beat us'. If they pitch around him and his BBs jump I want Braun and Hart behind him because the rest of the options on the backend of the lineup cannot hit righties.

 

If Fielder sits at around a .400 OBP and I think he will against righties, Braun is going to be getting up with runners on and Hart batting behind him and he is still going to see plenty of good pitches.

The whole point of protection is so the pitcher WON'T walk the batter, not the other way around. Pitching around a hitter is essentially taking the bat out of his hands, which pitchers would tend to do to Prince more often if the strikeout-prone Braun is batting behind him. So while that might mean more RBI opportunities for Ryan, it also would not be the most effective use of Prince's bat. On the flip-side, pitchers wouldn't pitch around Braun nearly as often, as they would have to face a much more disciplined hitter in Prince with Ryan on base if they did.

 

Admitedly, both players are studs, and it's a good problem to have. But if they had to choose, I would imagine pitchers would much rather attack Braun with runners on than they would Prince.

[TooLiveBrew]

The whole point of protection...

 

The notion of "protection" is totally overblown imho. I genuinely believe it largely stems from the reporting done in NYC during 1961 that the only reason Maris had a shot at Ruth was that he had Yankees legend Micky Mantle batting behind him. The idea of "protection" just doesn't come into play that much in reality.

[Ennder]

The whole point of protection is so the pitcher WON'T walk the batter, not the other way around. Pitching around a hitter is essentially taking the bat out of his hands, which pitchers would tend to do to Prince more often if the strikeout-prone Braun is batting behind him

 

So pitchers are going to walk Fielder because Braun is batting behind him? That makes absolutely no sense at all. I don't really believe in the traditional concept of protection but I do believe in wanting my better hitters behind the better OBP guys and Fielder will probably be the highest OBP guy on the team, especially vs righties. He needs guys who can drive him in behind him and that is Braun and Hart.

[ballnglove]

Pitchers are going to pitch around Fielder with Braun behind him more often than they would pitch around Braun with Fielder behind him. I acknowledge Fielder is a better OBP hitter, but how certain are you that Braun can be as effective as he was last year without Prince behind him? Might it just be a coincidence that JJ hit so well last season when Prince was behind him, and only started to drop off when Braun was inserted between the two?

 

I don't know the answers to those questions. I don't think anyone really does. But that brings us back the original point. If it ain't broke, why fix it?

 

On the issue of protection, it is true that sabrmetric studies have shown no significant increase in offensive production between a protected hitter and a non-protected one. But they have confirmed that good hitters see more walks when weak hitters bat behind them than they do with stronger hitters "protecting" them. So in the respect that pitchers may choose to take the bat out of a player's hands because a less effective batter is on deck, it seems there is a case to be made for protection. Furthermore, most sabrmetric studies on the issue have not looked at the pitch-by-pitch analysis of the situation. Could it be that batters with better protection do actually see more fastballs? If so, wouldn't that also be a case for the theory of protection?

 

Obviously Braun is a strong hitter, so it wouldn't be as though Prince still wouldn't be "protected". But I do believe Prince would be walked or pitched around more often in certain situations with Braun on deck than Braun would in those very same situations with Fielder on deck. I say this for the simple fact that we've seen this strategy employed numerous times by every team throughout baseball at one point or another, and there's no reason to believe it won't continue to be a strategy in the future. As I said, if pitchers had a choice, they would likely much rather attack a strikeout prone Braun in key game situations than they would Prince. And so such a lineup would, essentially, lessen the effect of Prince's bat than it would potentially be in a different batting order.

 

Anyway, my preference for Braun batting in front of Fielder has more to do with Ryan's baserunning on Prince's hits rather than Prince's baserunning on Ryan's hits. I simply don't see how Braun gets that many more SB opportunities batting behind Fielder, which was Ned's stated reason for doing the switch in the first place.

[1992casey]

#2 is your third best hitter

 

If you take another look, I believe The Book has the #2 hitter ranked right up there with #4. It gets a bit confusing because it has a lot of "The Book says" boxes, and some of them conflict. You kind have to get into the paragraphs, and once you've done that, draw some conclusions on your own.

 

I believe it mentioned qualitative factors for determining which hitter would go in each of those spots: walks for #2 and extra base hits for #4. That would seem to suggest that the Brewers might want Fielder at #2 and Braun at #4. Fielder has the definite walk edge and they're pretty close in extra base hits.

 

I think the bottom line, though, is that no team is going to have a complement of players that match up exactly to the descriptions in The Book, and that we can be a bit flexible. If someone wants to use protection as the reason to bat Fielder #2 and Braun #4, I'm fine with that. If someone else wants to use speed to bat Braun #2 and Fielder #4, I'm fine with that, too. And if another person's gut says that Prince is a prototypical cleanup hitter and defaults Braun into #2 on that basis, I'm also fine with that.

 

Basically, I believe the bottom line is that one of those guys should bat #2 and the other should bat #4. If that happens, even if you disagree with the explanation behind it, you're still getting a good thing.

[bigpeteanderson]

I really don't like Ned tinkering with the lineup, I would rather have Braun bat 3rd and Prince bat 4th, it worked last seson, why mess with what works. To me batting the catcher 9th is silly, it didn't work that well in St Louis last season.

[Ennder]

Actually the Cardinals offense improved in every area after they made the switch, not that it means the two were related.

 

I dont' get why people are worried about Braun batting 4th. The entire concept of protection is overblown and teams are not going to pitch around Braun when Fielder is getting on 40% of the time in front of him and Hart is hitting behind him.

[JohnBriggs12]

"help them score 25 to 30 more runs"?

 

If Yost thinks that Kendall will indeed match his .375 career OBP, he should bat him 2nd, not 9th. As for his "extreme double play tendencies", you compensate for that by a novel notion called the "hit and run" using your fastest runner, or the straight steal also using your fastest runner.

 

That makes more sense to me and does not involve reinventing the game.

[SmartBall]

Yeah baseball lineups can be tinkered with to get the best possible results. Sometimes people mentally feel comfortable hitting in a certain spot, but just because something worked well last year doesn't mean something else won't work better this year.

[owbc]

I know we've discussed this before, but I really like the idea of batting Kendall 9th.

 

Although there are arguments the other way, I see a common situation arising where the #6 or #7 hitter gets on base with less than 2 outs. If Kendall is batting 8th, he will frequently end the inning by grounding into a double-play--and we all know how irritating double plays are. Even worse, the pitcher will be up first to start the next inning.

 

If the pitcher bats 8th, he can bunt the runner(s) over, leaving first base open. Then, Kendall is up with runners in scoring position. Knowing Kendall's high OBP, he may draw a walk, leaving many big opportunities for Rickie Weeks, who most of us think will have a big year. If Kendall hits a weak ground ball, the inning is over, but instead of having the pitcher leading off the next inning, we will be back to the top of the order.

 

Thus, it doesn't always make sense to have the worst hitter bat 9th. In the same way, we wouldn't want Prince Fielder batting 1st, even though he is our best hitter.

 

I really hope Yost goes through with this.

[dadofandrew]

AL teams have been doing this for years, it's basically just enhanced by Jason's relative speed, OBP, and ground ball tendencies.

 

After seeing the numbers, it's certainly worth a try.

[TooLiveBrew]

Manager Ned Yost first began toying with Kendall and Rickie Weeks as dual leadoff hitters when he was considering batting Ryan Braun second. Mike Cameron will hit in the No. 2 hole instead after he completes his 25-game suspension, but Yost still likes the idea of Kendall hitting ninth.

 

Wow. As an unabashed Yost-frustrate-ee, I have to bring out the props for Ned here. Not only has he selected the proper #2 hitter, he's been open & objective about any sort of lineup re-arrangement. I think the placement of Cameron at #2 & Kendall at #9 is a great sign that Ned has grown as a manager. We can hypothesize that perhaps he'd never have considered this without Simba around or whatever, but it sounds like the Brewers organization contributed well all-around here -

 

The team's assistant scouting director, Tony Blengino, and statistical analyst Dave Lawson suggested that such an arrangement could help the club score 25 to 30 more runs.

 

Great to hear that not only do we have a stats analyst, but that his recommendations are taken under serious consideration, too. +5 to Mark A., Doug, Ned, & Co.

[Oldcity]

I like batting Kendall ninth more if Braun hits second.