Designated Lineup Thread - Kendall Batting 9th?; Lack of Left-Handed Hitters SOLVDD (#203); Hall To Bat 5th, Hart 6th (#216)

[sbrylski]

The 1-4 last year was not really broken.

 

Weeks

Hardy

Braun

Fielder

 

The next question is how you want to bat Hart and Hall in the 5 and 6 slots.

 

I'm baffled as to why Yost would want to "fix" what isn't broken.

My TV isn't broken, but it's not HD.

[DrWood]

can you make your TV a HD version by rearranging its parts?

[homer]

How much of a difference would LH, RH, RH (Prince, Braun, Hart) make vs. RH, LH, RH? I know managers sometimes prefer the alternating approach to avoid some of the later innings mismatches with the opposing bullpen. Not sure that's enough to change someone's mind but maybe it would factor in a little bit.

[olliegjw]

small ball should be the last thing in the offensive arsenal of this team. They are made to mash. If they hit 250 HR, it won't matter if they steal 70 or 150 bases, except they'll score FEWER runs by getting caught stealing.

Mashing is great, but the ability to play small ball can win you some extra games. There are many times when HR's just aren't going to happen very often (i.e. wind blowing in hard, rain, dominant pitching, etc). Being able to squeeze out an extra run can be very beneficial. When you're talking about a close race between the Brewers and Cubs, the couple extra wins could be huge.

 

I don't think anyone is suggesting to turn into a strictly small-ball team. However, having the ability to do so, when needed, is very important.

[Oldcity]

Only thing is small ball usually involves giving up outs, which takes runs away.

 

Ok, not trying to hijack the thread. I don't think the order matters all that much, but I'm all for getting Prince as many PAs as possible. Also Hardy should not hit second until he shows more patience. I like Cameron in that spot quite a bit.

[rluzinski]

I'm baffled as to why Yost would want to "fix" what isn't broken.

 

Unless the Brewers had won the World Series last year, it's hard to pretend that last year's performance in any area was good enough. If shifting around the lineup could give the offense extra runs, I don't see why you shouldn't do it.

 

The tradational lineup isn't a bad one but it's most likely not the optimal one. Here's an article on the subject (if it hasn't been posted somewhere else already):

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=363160

 

I don't think think it's worth the hassle of moving the pitcher for a couple extra runs in a season but the typical #2 and #3 hitter doesn't fit very well where they are tradationally put. The fact that the average #2 hitter isn't a very good hitter overall should suggest that managers might want to rethink their batting orders. That move is more common sense than anything else.

 

As for protection, it's always talked about as if it has a huge effect but there simply is no evidence that. Most likely, the effect is quite small. For every example of protection proving itself, you can find examples of the opposite occuring.

[UndraftedFA]

I don't think making a lineup built for more stolen bases necessarily means they steal more. As said before, it would look great in games when the HR's aren't coming.

[JohnBriggs12]

Fielder hitting 4th you're tying up two players, Braun's opportunities to steal, plus Hart won't be slowed down by Fielder with any balls he hits to the gaps.

 

especially with Simmons on the bench, i'm expecting a bit more small-ball play from Yost this year, and having Fielder a spot higher in the lineup I think he's that. or maybe a better question would be, Does hitting Fielder 3rd promote small-ball play?

That's fine but how can you ignore last year's splits?

 

Braun hit .332/.379/.643 batting 3rd ahead of Fielder. He batted just .227/.277/.500 batting 4th.

 

Conversely, Fielder hit better batting 4th: .304/.424/.677 than he did batting 3rd: .262/.345/.524.

 

Hart raked in the 5 hole and should stay there.

 

You don't play small ball with Fielder or Braun.

[RightFieldCoder]

How much of a difference would LH, RH, RH (Prince, Braun, Hart) make vs. RH, LH, RH? I know managers sometimes prefer the alternating approach to avoid some of the later innings mismatches with the opposing bullpen. Not sure that's enough to change someone's mind but maybe it would factor in a little bit.

 

Look at the entire line-up. If Prince is batting 3rd, it looks like this:

 

R R L R R R R R R

 

and if Prince is batting 4th it looks like this:

 

R R R L R R R R R

 

So I don't think we need to worry about L/R this year. Unless you think Gross or (shudder) Gwynn should be hitting 1-6.

[mletto157]

I like...

 

Weeks

Braun

Hardy / Cameron

Prince

Hart

Billy

Cameron / Hardy

Pitcher / Kendall

Kendall / Pitcher

 

Where my preference is to the 1st name, but I wouldn't be opposed to the 2nd name hitting there either.

[DrWood]

lets just go: Fielder, Braun, Hart, Weeks, Cameron, Hall, Hardy, Kendall.

[sbrylski]

mletto, that's mine too.

[lukevan]

That's fine but how can you ignore last year's splits?

 

By looking at the sample size.

[logan82]

I think most people thought we would see a lineup of

 

Weeks

Cameron

Fielder

Braun

Hart

Hardy

Hall

Kendall

Pitcher

 

Keep in mind that I consider Hall, Cameron and Hardy to be pretty equal hitters so they are pretty much interchangeable. Cameron being a better base runner than the other 2 and Hardy striking out less than the other two. From whot Yost has been sayin it sounds like our lineup could end up

 

Weeks

Braun

Cameron

Fielder

Hart

Hardy

Hall

Pitcher

Kendall

 

The only one who changes more than one spot is Braun. You need .050 points of OBP difference between players to make the 20 extra at bats equal one more base runner over the course of the entire season.

[Ennder]

Seemed to work today, Braun with a HR in his first spring training AB, heh.

[crewcrazy]

With Prince being the more patient hitter, I definitely don't mind him batting 3rd. Let pitchers pitch around him if that means Ryan's going to get more baserunners to hit in.

[Gopher74]

i couldn't agree with the thread title more, just leave the order alone ned. And for heavens sake please hit sheets in the nine hole.

 

Yea, I'm pretty sure that Sheets is going to hit 9th when he does hit.

 

But this move makes very good sense almost across the board.

 

I like that Cameron's going to get good pitches to hit. Look at everyone who hit in front of Prince last year. Braun, Hardy, Gross when he got white hot. Cameron's the exact type of hitter who's going to explode in that type of scenario. He's a straight fastball hitter.

Braun has the type of speed that you don't want to hide in front of a 50 HR type hitter. Braun's got 30/30 potential(would say 40/40, but I don't think he gets 40 SB's unless he's just trying to reach that mark).

 

And it splits up the L/R earlier in the lineup. That's not a big deal, but it's nice. If you want to bring in a left hander to face Prince, you're going to have to take him right back out for Braun.

[danzig6767]

i couldn't agree with the thread title more, just leave the order alone ned. And for heavens sake please hit sheets in the nine hole.

I like that Cameron's going to get good pitches to hit. Look at everyone who hit in front of Prince last year. Braun, Hardy, Gross when he got white hot. Cameron's the exact type of hitter who's going to explode in that type of scenario. He's a straight fastball hitter.

I doubt Cameron will or would get pitched much differently regardless if Fielder hits after him or Braun does. Both guys can absolutely rake and the last thing pitchers will want to do is walk Cameron so they have to face Braun or Prince. Plus, walking or allowing a hit to Cameron if Braun hit third opens the possibility of Braun getting on base next and thus having to face Fielder with two men on base.

I have a very slight preference to batting Braun third and Prince fourth simply for having a R/L/R situation with Braun/Fielder/Hart late in games when relief matchups get factored in. Either way though that the lineup gets set with Braun and Fielder isn't something i'm to concerned with because i don't think it will really make much difference.

 

[Never Outhustled]

Hardy doesn't strike out as much. Has a decent OBP.

Hardy has never had an OBA over 327. Thats very poor, not decent. He is also one of the teams slowest baserunners. I'll be happy as long as Hardy never hits near the top of the lineup.

[Ennder]

Hardy is too young to judge.

 

In 2005 he had an .363 OBP in the second half and I think we can all agree his first half doesn't represent Hardy very well that season.

In 2006 he had an .323 OBP in April and then in May he had a .179 BABIP before getting hurt.

In 2007 he had a good OBP in April and May and then got hurt in June and tailed off the rest of the year.

 

It is just not an easy body of work to judge just yet. His MLEs suggest he has a .350 OBP future in him given a .275 AVG and a 7-8% BB rate.

[BrewCrewForever]

I have to say I love the fact that we have enough good hitters that we can argue where they should be batting. It's refreshing.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hardy has never had an OBA over 327. Thats very poor, not decent. He is also one of the teams slowest baserunners. I'll be happy as long as Hardy never hits near the top of the lineup.

 

His OBP will rise nicely in 2008 imo. He doesn't K much, and has a good eye at the plate. I'd be surprised if he walks less than 50 times this season.

 

Hardy is not one of the slowest baserunners on the team. Somewhere in the middle, iirc.

 

I could not agree more with your third sentence.

[homer]

I think Hardy is definitely one of the slower starters for sure and I bet Gwynn and Gross have him too.

 

My personal ranking (not sure how accurate that 60 yard deal was last year during ST)

 

Weeks

Hart

Braun

Cameron

Hall

Hardy

Fielder

Kendall

 

Prince may even have a step on Hardy - hard to say for sure.

[DrG1ue]

Along the same lines, Cameron was able to score easily yesterday from first off a Fielder double. Even if Hardy reaches a similar OBP to Cameron, (most projections I've seen don't have him at this) it's an obvious benefit to have the guy who can get from first to home or first to third more often batting in front of our XBH machines.

[And That]

Hardy has never had an OBA over 327. Thats very poor, not decent.

Hardy's career OBP is .321. A .321 OBP is better than 11 teams got out of the SS position in 2007, better than 10 teams in 2006 and better than 17(!) teams in 2005. Granted shortstops have lower offensive output than most positions, but one of the best ways to judge a player is to judge him against players at his position. He holds his own even if it is middling to a little below average.

 

I'd say it is much closer to "decent" than "very poor."

This is not to defend any notion that J.J. should bat anywhere near the top part of the lineup. His best spot on this team in the #7 spot. That more a credit to how strong the rest of the lineup is than anything else.