Designated Lineup Thread - Kendall Batting 9th?; Lack of Left-Handed Hitters SOLVDD (#203); Hall To Bat 5th, Hart 6th (#216)

[Ennder]

The 9th hitter will not get to leverage his SLG very much and will be setup to leverage OBP so Kendall is the most fitting guy. He is also the worst hitter in the lineup so you would want to minimize his ABs anyway.

[ozzybourne]

instead of the pitcher?

[TooLiveBrew]

Yes - the choice essentially boils down to whether or not you want more runners on base left to drive in for the low-/nil-slugging Kendall... or more runners for Weeks to drive in.

[1992casey]

Keep in mind that the pitcher only bats 9th 65% of the time, anyway. He'd be batting 8th about the same percentage of the time; that minimizes the number of PAs that are tacked on because of the move.

 

At any rate, The Book concludes that hitting the pitcher eighth will tack on about two runs over a 162 game season. Moving the pitcher up to 7th will be about equal to leaving him in the 9th spot.

[ozzybourne]

The 9th hitter will not get to leverage his SLG very much and will be setup to leverage OBP so Kendall is the most fitting guy. He is also the worst hitter in the lineup so you would want to minimize his ABs anyway.

quick question--much of this discussion is based on theoretical stats or a limited sample from TLR in st louis. why do we want to base the yost lineup with kendall? this seems to be a very limited sampling to work from. why not hardy or hall from the 9th spot?

[TooLiveBrew]

why not hardy or hall from the 9th spot?

 

Bc it's an attempt to put your least-effective hitter/slugger in a more favorable spot, while not taking away from your 7 (in our case) other solid hitters.

 

That's my take on it, anyway... take that with a grain or grains of salt.

[rluzinski]

I don't think it's worth the hassle of moving the pitcher to the 8 spot for around 2 runs. I do like putting one of your best hitters in the 2 spot, though.

[logan82]

TLB--i still think it awkward to bat the pitcher 8th. and as for yost i suscribe to the keep it simple theory. here is some additional info as long as we are looking at this topic.

 

--the 8th spot averages about 25-30 ABs more per year

 

--with RISP for the 2007 brewers, the 8th spot came up 15 more times than the 9th, in 2006 7 more times, 2005 13 more, 2004 34 more times. and yes some of that may be offset by PH, but usually not til after 6th or 7th inning.

 

--interesting about the 3rd spot. team high AB with RISP for season-206 plate appearances. team high BA .335, team high OBP .408, SLG .618

Just my opinion, buty I think PA is what should be looked at not AB. Everything I have read or people have talked about has been 18-20 PA per spot in the order. Especially when you get to the bottom of the order where there are a lot of Sac bunts and intentional/unintentional BB. Take the #1 vs #2 AB on that page. You see, as should be expected with Weeks at the top quite a bit, the #2 spot actually had more AB than the #1 spot.

[DrWood]

I can't comprehend why anyone would want Ned to think, inside a box, outside a box, or in a padded room. A guy should go with his strengths whenever possible. Regarding the "stats" about batting order, Heisenberg principle is in play here, I think. A markov chain model isn't reality. A guy that has a .340 OBP batting 8th, will probably have a different OBP batting 7th, 2nd, etc. The idea you can put players in place for certain situations (which is where any benefit would acrue) ignores that the **presence** of the situation is dependent on which player is batting in the other positions. So, the only way to find out what works best is to try it out. I'd suggest that "trying it out" will sacrifice a win here and there, and thus experimenting during the regular season is only appropriate for psychological reasons ("shaking things up").

[olliegjw]

I can't comprehend why anyone would want Ned to think, inside a box, outside a box, or in a padded room. A guy should go with his strengths whenever possible. Regarding the "stats" about batting order, Heisenberg principle is in play here, I think. A markov chain model isn't reality. A guy that has a .340 OBP batting 8th, will probably have a different OBP batting 7th, 2nd, etc. The idea you can put players in place for certain situations (which is where any benefit would acrue) ignores that the **presence** of the situation is dependent on which player is batting in the other positions. So, the only way to find out what works best is to try it out. I'd suggest that "trying it out" will sacrifice a win here and there, and thus experimenting during the regular season is only appropriate for psychological reasons ("shaking things up").

I agree with this premise. By batting the pitcher 8th and Kendall 9th, there will be a ripple effect in numbers. The 7th hitter will have an inflated OBP by being pitched around in front of the pitcher. There will be no change in the pitcher's line. Kendall's OBP will be lower. He will not get the walks that he would in the 8th spot. Also, pitchers won't walk him very often with Weeks after him. Kendall doesn't have the slugging to take advantage of seeing a lot of good pitches to hit.

 

Also, instead of Weeks hitting a guys in scoring position, he'll only have a guy on first (if there is anyone on). Kendall will be the one with extra AB's with guys in scoring position (pitcher bunting guys over). That may not be the best scenario.

[TooLiveBrew]

Kendall's OBP will be lower. He will not get the walks that he would in the 8th spot.

 

You can't have it both ways, though. If you're focusing on making sure you're not paying attention to just lineup slot, you really have to throw that statement out. It's not like Kendall has hit exclusively in one spot in the lineup, where you can make the statement that you can determine his line/stats due to where he bats. I'd be more inclined to believe that his OBP would be about the same, no matter where you bat him.

[BrewCrewForever]

All this lineup talk has me very interested to what Yost will actually do this season. Lots of combinations, I just hope he isn't shuffling it all the time like he did last season.

[clancyphile]

The key, though, is not to change what isn't broken.

 

Weeks

Hardy

Braun

Fielder

Hart/Hall

Hall/Hart

 

That 1-6 is not broken.

 

So, it's really a matter of deciding who hits 7-9. I'd have to say that Cameron-Kendall-pitcher would be the most logical.

[TooLiveBrew]

That 1-6 is not broken.

 

Hardy did his best outside of the 1-6 slots last year... or at least not in the 2-slot. Cameron, otoh, is an ideal #2 hitter.

[DrWood]

Hardy is kinda broken as a 2nd batter until he takes more walks (or gets his average over .300).

[LUKE232323]

I don't know if people want to move this to the lineup thread or not, but I'm just wondering why it appears Yost is strongly considering batting Prince third and Braun fourth, as opposed to the Braun third, Prince fourth combination that worked so well last year? I just think Prince doesn't need the protection, and Braun, more of a free swinger and not apt to take a walk would see more fastballs batting third over batting fourth.

 

I know they are trying to put Braun in more running situations, but that will have minimal advantage, IMO. I am hoping we end up seeing Braun/Fielder and not Fielder/Braun when the regular season starts.

[lukevan]

Yeah, here's today's spring training lineup per Haudricourt:

 

Milwaukee Brewers (0-0)

2B Rickie Weeks

CF Mike Cameron

1B Prince Fielder

LF Ryan Braun

RF Corey Hart

3B Bill Hall

SS J.J. Hardy

DH Gabe Gross

C Jason Kendall

SP Claudio Vargas (not batting)

 

 

I like that Cameron gets to hit in front of Prince.

[LUKE232323]

Yeah, I don't mind having Cameron 2, he K's a lot but his OBP is still comparable to Hardy's and he has more speed. I'd still like to see Braun in front of Fielder though, I think he will produce better there and Fielder will produce no matter where he is in the lineup.

[Ennder]

1) I don't think hitters are going to change the way they approach Braun when Hart is behind him.

2) Is it a bad thing for Prince to see more fastballs with Braun behind him?

3) A good hitter is a good hitter and Braun is a good hitter. He'll be fine.

4) If it doesn't seem to be working for some reason they can always just switch them back.

[lukevan]

Cameron works the count well, so he should get some meaty fastballs if he remains patient. With Kendall hitting 9th, I like Fielder up the lineup a tad and Braun will get some opportunities to steal with Hart and Hall behind him, though I don't think we need to be stealing that often.

[afeter]

i couldn't agree with the thread title more, just leave the order alone ned. And for heavens sake please hit sheets in the nine hole.

[monty57]

It makes me smile a bit that this discussion is about which of our two 1.000+ OPS guys should bat 3rd and which should bat 4th. It's not so long ago that our lineup was ?/?/?/Sexson/?/?/?/?/Pitcher.

[GAME05]

Fielder hitting 4th you're tying up two players, Braun's opportunities to steal, plus Hart won't be slowed down by Fielder with any balls he hits to the gaps.

 

especially with Simmons on the bench, i'm expecting a bit more small-ball play from Yost this year, and having Fielder a spot higher in the lineup I think he's that. or maybe a better question would be, Does hitting Fielder 3rd promote small-ball play?

[clancyphile]

The 1-4 last year was not really broken.

 

Weeks

Hardy

Braun

Fielder

 

The next question is how you want to bat Hart and Hall in the 5 and 6 slots.

 

I'm baffled as to why Yost would want to "fix" what isn't broken.

[DrWood]

small ball should be the last thing in the offensive arsenal of this team. They are made to mash. If they hit 250 HR, it won't matter if they steal 70 or 150 bases, except they'll score FEWER runs by getting caught stealing.