Designated Lineup Thread - Kendall Batting 9th?; Lack of Left-Handed Hitters SOLVDD (#203); Hall To Bat 5th, Hart 6th (#216)

[adambr2]

again-- i must believe that with all the money at stake for winning in mlb, and all the high priced talent in front offices assigned to evaluate almost every situation, if this was such a logical thing to do, it would be employed on a more regular basis. that is why it is a stupid theory--yes imho, more importantly in the judgement of the proffessionals who run mlb.

I think you were on the right track when you started by talking about money being at stake in MLB...money is tied to stats such as the save, which is why you'll see a teams closer burned in a 3 run game when their worst reliever was in the game the previous day to protect a 1 run lead with the bases loaded and 1 out.

 

A lot of "conventional wisdom" has been derived from such things. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing that the pitcher batting 9th is one of them, but a manager definitely puts his reputation at stake to experiment with strategy that goes outside the box of conventional wisdom. I think you'll probably see a different game in some aspects in 20 years because new things will be tried that will or won't work well, and conventional wisdom and trends will change. Just like you don't see the same game now that we saw 20 years ago.

 

 

(edit: long quote --1992)

[homer]

"again-- i must believe that with all the money at stake for winning in mlb, and all the high priced talent in front offices assigned to evaluate almost every situation, if this was such a logical thing to do, it would be employed on a more regular basis. that is why it is a stupid theory--yes imho, more importantly in the judgement of the proffessionals who run mlb."

 

 

It hasn't been until recently that baseball front offices have begun hiring statisticians to analyze stuff like this. At the end of the day, they still need to convince a manager to set the lineup and most managers are not brain surgeons - not to mention the backlash if it backfired. It's easier to go with convention than try something radical. I'm not surprised LaRussa (one of the more cerebral managers in the game) tried it first. He has the job security and resume to do whatever he wants.

 

If all people did was go with convention, Knute Rockne wouldn't have revolutionized the forward pass and college football would still look like a rugby scrum.

[BuckyBrewer61]

If Ned were to actually institute this strategy, I would hope he bats Fielder 3rd behind Braun. I understand the logic of many here wanting Hart in the 5-hole with Fielder still clean-up, but IMO it would be a big mistake to not put Braun and Fielder back-to-back in either order. To split them up would be a waste of their ability to influence the pitches seen by the batter in front of them. Don't you think some of Braun's success last year had something to do with him batting in front of an MVP candidate?

[adambr2]

From what has been said, they're going to try to avoid Fielder batting behind Braun. They feel that neutralizes Braun's speed, since they don't want to let Braun steal with Prince at the plate.

[logan82]

The third hitter in a lineup comes up with the bases empty almost as often as the #1 hitter. The #3 hitter comes up with 2 outs more often than either the #4 or #5 hitters.

[homer]

I did a little digging on the web for some info on lineup optimization and came across a cool Lineup Analysis tool on Baseball Musings. You plug in a list of players with their corresponding OBP and SLG then the application generates the most productive and least productive lineups. For each of the most productive lineups it has Kendall 8th then the pitcher 9th. Also, has Weeks leading off every time but after that it's kind of all over the place (Although Braun hitting clean up shows up a lot). The most productive lineup it generated (scoring 5.228 runs per game) is:

 

Weeks

Fielder

Cameron

Braun

Hart

Hall

Hardy

Pitcher

Kendall

 

I used the Marcel projections for 2008 for the hitters and the Brewers team numbers for 2007 for the pitching slot. The Lineup Analysis can be found here:

 

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py

 

And if anyone knows how to insert a hyperlink like we used to be able to, please let me know.

 

Here's an article I found that talks about LaRussa's experiment with batting the pitcher 8th.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-larussa-right-to-bat-his-pitcher-in-the-eight-slot/

[1992casey]

The third hitter in a lineup comes up with the bases empty almost as often as the #1 hitter. The #3 hitter comes up with 2 outs more often than either the #4 or #5 hitters.

Additionally, the #3 hitter comes to bat with two outs and nobody on base more often than anyone else.

 

Simple illustration: the best lineup with four Babe Ruths and five Sandy Koufaxes will have Ruth hitting #1, #2, #4, and #5. The Koufaxes will hit #3, #6, #7, #8, and #9.

[endaround]

Hitting Braun 2nd means less opportunities for Weeks to steal. Trading opportunities for Weeks to give Braun more opportunities makes little sense. Now if Yost is going to throw out the steal, fine, but thats not his stated reason. And if this would cause him to hit and run with Braun.....

[logan82]

Here is a longer article on it.

 

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080223&content_id=2385716&vkey=spt2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=mil

 

Also a link to a spreadsheet showing how much each of our players would lose per plate appearance and per spot in the order. Based off of 18 PA per spot in the order and last years stats.

 

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pKN8HdBGjC9LVeUzB9o8vNg

[sheetswannabe]

Why do we need more runs? Lets worry about pitching first Ned. Lesson 1- Dont pull a Dusty and kill Gallardo

[bullox]

Why do we need more runs? Kind of like asking why people need more money. Sure you could just be more frugal, but then you wouldn't have the luxury of being able to go overboard in some situations and still be safe.

 

And this thread is about the lineup. Pitching can go in another thread.

[BrewCrewForever]

I like this lineup potential.

 

1. Weeks

2. Cameron

3. Braun

4. Fielder

5. Hart

6. Hall

7. Hardy

8. Kendall

9. Pitcher

 

I guess any combo is okay as long as Braun is 3rd and Prince is 4th.

[Team Canada]

As has been noted in the thread already, statistically speaking, it would be much better to swap Braun and Cameron in your lineup.

[BrewCrewForever]

As has been noted in the thread already, statistically speaking, it would be much better to swap Braun and Cameron in your lineup.

Well I feel that your 3rd batter should be your best hitter. Is or is Braun not our best hitter? He its for a high average and hits for power and drives in runs. Just my opinion.

[1992casey]

The cleanup hitter should probably be the best hitter; he leads off more innings than anyone other than the leadoff hitter.

[BrewCrewForever]

The cleanup hitter should probably be the best hitter; he leads off more innings than anyone other than the leadoff hitter.

It does make an argument for the cleanup hitter, but I think that hitter should be your best power hitter. Which would be Prince.

[twobrewers]

Hitting Braun 2nd means less opportunities for Weeks to steal.

I thought of that as well. It would certainly seem to detract from this theory a little.

 

I am now 100% against this. Not because I think it should be dismissed and has no merit. But if the Brewers start the season with this, and promptly get swept by the Cubs - I don't want to spend hours explaining to people why a weird line up was not a bad idea.

 

If Ned does try, and this fails....Just imagine how fast everyone will call for his head then.

[Fatter than Joey]

Hitting Braun 2nd means less opportunities for Weeks to steal. Trading opportunities for Weeks to give Braun more opportunities makes little sense. Now if Yost is going to throw out the steal, fine, but thats not his stated reason. And if this would cause him to hit and run with Braun.....

 

Hitting and running with Braun at the plate....

 

I generally oppose the use of tasers, but if the Brewers start trying to "manufacturing" runs I am going to send Ted Simmons a taser for the dugout -- for entertainment purposes only, of course.

[RyDogg66]

Hitting Braun 2nd means less opportunities for Weeks to steal.

I thought of that as well. It would certainly seem to detract from this theory a little.

 

I am now 100% against this. Not because I think it should be dismissed and has no merit. But if the Brewers start the season with this, and promptly get swept by the Cubs - I don't want to spend hours explaining to people why a weird line up was not a bad idea.

 

If Ned does try, and this fails....Just imagine how fast everyone will call for his head then.

...because a pitcher striking out with the bases loaded and two outs from the 8th spot is completely different from a pitcher striking out with the bases loaded with two outs in the 9th spot.

In many games a pitcher gets 2-3 at bats and no matter if he bats 8th or 9th that isnt going to change. Unless the starter is going really deep into the game where the pitcher bats is irrelevant in the late innings because a pinch hitter is almost always used. If Ned is thinking outside the box a little to get Braun and Fielder more at bats I applaud him.

I have to say I like this idea a lot. If Kendall can do anything well still, it might be working the count and getting on base, Weeks does the same.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"if this is such a creative strategy, why hasn't it been employed more often? answer--because it is stupid."

 

Ozzy, so far you've been a good 'read', so you may want to rachet it down a notch on the confrontational rhetoric. Some long-time, respected posters like Brettac, JBriggs, adambr, Sam and Casey have at least kicked the tires on this idea, and Tony LaRussa has employed it in limited doses, so dismissing it as "stupid" is a bit harsh. Otherwise, keep up the solid posts, rook!

 

"And Jason Kendall has his horrible SLG and "eh" batting average - not the guy to drive them in. But he's got that solid OBP, so placing him 9th will actually make a pretty good impact on getting some baserunners for Weeks to drive in. "

 

While I agree with the parts about the BA and SLG, the cynic in me just can't wrap myself around the notion of JK as able to just bounce right back to lucidity after last year, Sam. He's a physically overused (abused, really) catcher in his 13th season who very well may have hit his career wall in 2007. The odds of JK hewing closer to his 2007 numbers, seem much more likely than JK reverting neatly back to what he was, years ago.

 

It's fine to feel confident in him and all, and you're obviously entitled to that. But I see him as a lineup hole, and batting him 8th or 9th probably won't make enough of an impact anyway.

 

It's a fun topic to dscuss when games, even exhibition games, are nowehere to be found. But I just don't believe Ned's capable of seriously entertaining such out-of-the-box ideas, do you?

 

And if it IS Simba advocating such an unusual move, then he must have a lot more influence than we've been led to believe, and if the team DOES falter coming out of the gate, if we're still close enough to rescue the season, then Simmons will take over sooner, rather than later...a move, by the way, which I'd applaud.

[Oldcity]

"Common sense tells me you want your best hitters to have the most at-bats," Yost said.

 

Has Yost said a more sensible thing in the last two years?

 

I always thought it was stupid when La Russa hit the pitcher eighth because he didn't change the rest of his lineup. If he had moved Pujols up to second when he did this, it would have made a lot more sense. This idea is pretty intriguing to me...

[sbrylski]

It's fine to feel confident in him and all, and you're obviously entitled to that. But I see him as a lineup hole, and batting him 8th or 9th probably won't make enough of an impact anyway.

 

I should have said "relatively good impact". My projection for Kendall OBP/SLG is about 330/330. Relatively, its a very substancial improvement over our pitchers OBP.

 

 

For those worried about getting Weeks and Braun stealing opportunities (I couldn't care less), batting Cameron 3rd with his very solid P/PA would give each an opportunity to run before Fielder gets to the plate.

[TooLiveBrew]

The odds of JK hewing closer to his 2007 numbers, seem much more likely than JK reverting neatly back to what he was, years ago.

 

If, by "years", you exclude "two years" ago, then yes. But if you're more fair-minded, well, a huge improvement over Estrada's offensive numbers can be expected.

 

 

"Way back in prehistoric times, kids - 2006! - [crowd of children: "Ooooooohhh"] Jason Kendall put up the line of .295/.367/.342. He posted this all while spending half of his season in one of the worst hitters' parks in all of MLB. Luckily our archaeologists were able to uncover this historical gem from tar pits near Oakland!"

[bigredrobbo]

So, from this thread, we can glean the following:

 

If it works, Simba is a genius - way to go Ted!

 

If it doesn't, Yost is a dunderhead - what the heck were you thinking, Nedly?

[ozzybourne]

These "professionals" also use their best reliever in the lowest leverage situations so that arguement doesn't hold much water.

yes the professionals may do things you dont agree with--but they seem to do it consistently. that is most teams do things in a similiar fashion because it has been tried and true. then the talent (front office) and in game managing (managers) will win the game. your point seems to agree with what im saying. by the way, my stated opinion does hold water since 99.9% of the lineups have the pitcher batting 9th.

 

money ball and the use of statisics has influenced the game. but until i see this 'bat the pitcher 8th' argument used on the mlb level with some consistency, and not a few times ala larusso, i dont buy into it. and weren't the cards having some major injury problems at the time when he did it?

 

another side of this--if the clean up hitter leads off an inning more often than anyone but the leadoff hitter--and if your 4 and 5 hitters are good (why else would they be 4th or 5th) it seems the 8th hitter is going to be up quite often with runners on base and 2 outs. and you want the pitcher batting here in the first 6 or so innings of a game? again, dumb idea.

 

 

(pared nested quote --1992)