Weeks for Roberts....Would You Do It?

[joepepsi]

Of all the young stars on the Brewers, Rickie is probably my favorite. I expect him to have a great year despite his poor spring.

 

But bear with me here. My pointy litlle head calculates the Brewers have 3 seasons to win the World Series with this talent core. I think they're going to win the division this year, but it's not a foregone conclusion by any means. If they stumble out of the gate with unsettled bullpen and rotation issues, and Cubs roar out front, things could get real ugly by June. Ned won't make it out of the All Star break, Ted will become interim manager, and season one will be shot. The winter will be occupied hiring a new manager and coaching staff; dealing with arbitration issues for Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, and possibly Hart(?), and season two starts with a ton of questions.

 

Of course Roberts doesn't solve this worst case scenario. But here's what he can do: provide excellent leadoff offense with doubles power, a lefty bat, and very good SB %; greatly improve defense up the middle giving the Brewers one of the better middle defenses in the league; some salary stability since he's signed for the next two years, (albeit at a rather high rate); and prevents the Cubs from getting him.

 

The downside is he's 30 and pipsqueak middle infielders don't always last last that long, Biggio not withstanding. But if anyone can, it would be a fitness freak like Roberts. Plus, they don't have to try and re-sign him after 2009. Weeks is arby eligible after this season. If he realizes his potential he's going to get very expensive, very fast. It's likely the Brewers will lose him to free agency, or if he never develops they won't want him anyway.

 

For the Orioles it's a no brainer. With Markakis and Jones, Weeks would form an offensive core the Orioles could build around. It probably won't work as a 1 for 1 deal, there will have be an "evening" out with other players. Two years down the road it could look like a bad trade for the Brewers. On the other hand, the improved defense up the middle, and "stealing" Roberts from the Cubs just might prove to be the nudge the Crew needed to get to the World Series in the next two years.

 

So, what do you think? Would you do it?

[endaround]

4 season of Weeks is better then 2 of Roberts. And I'm not sure why you think they only have 3 seasons. The only position players not here for the next 4 seasons are Cameron, Kendall, and Hardy. The pitching will be changed, but Parra, Gallardo, and Villaneuava will be here.

[DrWood]

The only thing you'd get by swapping weeks for roberts is somewhat better defense, and probably batting average. weeks should have more power, comparable OBP, SB% as high or better. It wouldn't make the team better, unless you believe ST is indicative of what Weeks will do. In which case, trading him for a sack of peanuts would be worthwhile.

[aracko]

I couldnt do it. September is what sticks out in my mind. Weeks is going to start ALOT of rallys this season1

[dadofandrew]

Weeks is better and cheaper than Roberts.

 

I can't imagine.

[JohnBriggs12]

Weeks is better and cheaper than Roberts.

 

I can't imagine.

Not based on major league production Al.

 

Sure Roberts doesn't have the monster upside Weeks has, but we haven't seen it yet from Rickie over a full season.

 

Roberts is also a far superior defensive player and is just as good a base stealer. We'd also be throwing a wrench into Cubs plans.

 

As for dollars, you could even them out by including Capuano or Vargas in the deal. O's could use either of those guys. Eventually, the Brewers aren't going to be able to pay all their core anyway so 2 years of Roberts isn't all that bad.

 

I don't think Melvin would do it, but it's certainly worth considering.

[TooLiveBrew]

Sure Roberts doesn't have the monster upside Weeks has, but we haven't seen it yet from Rickie Rickie healthy over a full season.

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

All I can think of with the Weeks concerns is almost the exact same stuff about Hardy last offseason. Rickie's coming, of that I have no doubt. In fact, I'd argue that he's already here - Aug. & Sept. '07 were no fluke.

[splitterpfj]

I don't think this is a deal either team would pursue right now. The Brewers think Weeks' issue was his wrist, which they believe is behind him now, this isn't the time to let him go. Baltimore has multiple holes to fill, my guess is, they'd prefer a deal that nets them multiple players to a deal like this one. I also think that if another organization dealt for Weeks, they'd move him off second base immediately.

[drezdn]

It would be worth doing if only to see the reactions from Cubs fans (who seem to already think Roberts is a Cub).*

[sbrylski]

Roberts has really only had one great year, and last year he was overall just slightly better than Weeks. I think this would be a foolish swap.

[joepepsi]

JohnBriggs you hit on what I was thinking. Believe me I think Rickie is an exciting player and wouldn't want him off the team. But I do think Doug is going to need to make some creative decisions with his young players. It may not be a 3 year window to win, but the payroll is already, what, $90 million? How high will he be allowed to go without making it to the playoffs or Series in the next 3 seasons? Things are going to very expensive pretty quickly.

 

Isn't Rickie currently sitting out with a swollen hand due to a misplayed grounder? Like Rickey Henderson with the A's he's the kind of player who can carry a team through the playoffs, but if he misses another half season his value is going to plummet. They won't win anything with Counsell/Nunez taking 250 at bats playing 2B.

[Invader3K]

I guess I would tend to hang onto Weeks, because I don't think he's going to turn into the megastar that a lot of you are thinking. He's had nagging injuries, and his defense has never looked really stellar. Yes, he started to turn it around towards the end of last season, after what I think was a much needed AAA stint. Now, do I think he'll be a solid player? Sure, you bet. I think that will mean the Brewers will have a chance to hold onto him for a long time.

[DrWood]

They won't win anything with Counsell/Nunez taking 250 at bats playing 2B.

Crazy Joe could play 2B. Besides, missing Weeks for 250 AB shouldn't be that devastating, even if Counsell is playing there.

 

[lukevan]

I would think Weeks could fetch something better than a comparable 2B.

[jackalope02ca]

Weeks is the question mark for this team this year. It's make it or break for him. If he excells we are right to hold onto him. If he bombs, which he has the potential too, we will be trading him for a prospect or two later this year or next before he has no value left. He is one of those guys you can't trade because he has the tools to be an allstar but it really remains to be seen whether he can do it or not. I sure hope he can. One or two months is not a large enough sample size to say he is there.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yes, he started to turn it around towards the end of last season, after what I think was a much needed AAA stint.

 

But it wasn't that he spent time in AAA, it was that the scar tissue was cleaned up/out of his wrist. Rickie's health returned exactly when the doctors said it would over a year ago. This was a physical issue, not something Rickie magically figured out in his approach... which gives great reason to be excited about him entering 2008 healthy - the first such MLB season in his career. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Invader3K]

I know about the scar tissue. The fact was, his approach was pretty bad before the stint in AAA, and it was better afterwards. Maybe the stint in AAA didn't fully make him recover, but it didn't seem to hurt, either.

[dadofandrew]

Not based on major league production Al.

 

Roberts--.351/.409, 760

Weeks---.357/.410, 767

 

Roberts is likely to regress, Weeks is likely to improve.

 

I would assume Brian is a better defender, however.

[Gobias Industries]

It was a combination of both being sent down to work on his approach and swing, and the scar tissue breaking up. He probably would have never had the late season he did if he didn't get sent down. It allowed him to relax and work out his struggles in a low pressure situation.

 

On another note, I'd be tempted to do this trade. It would really improve the infield D and we know what we are going to get with Roberts. Weeks IMO, is probably gonna really break out, or bust.

[ILuvDaBush]

Would you trade a more powerful, better disciplined Brandon Phillips for Brian Roberts? I wouldn't even trade Parra/LaPorta/Escobar for Roberts. ZachJack/Hurricane...yeah. Nada mas.

[Gopher74]

JohnBriggs you hit on what I was thinking. Believe me I think Rickie is an exciting player and wouldn't want him off the team. But I do think Doug is going to need to make some creative decisions with his young players. It may not be a 3 year window to win, but the payroll is already, what, $90 million? How high will he be allowed to go without making it to the playoffs or Series in the next 3 seasons? Things are going to very expensive pretty quickly.

The payroll is about 83 million dollars and while the young kids are going to need to get paid, I just don't understand why anytime a topic comes up and someone mentions one of our good young players, people just assume they're going to be gone. If anything, the 83 million dollar payroll and the fact that the team is making a lot of money...a lot more than it's ever made before, combined with Mark A's comments tells you that we ARE going to sign some of our players.

 

Hell, we've got 10 million coming off with Gange, Sheets, 3.25 with Counsell, Suppan could be gone, Cameron's 7 million, Kendalls 4.25, Torres, Mota making about 6 million combined will be off the books...that's almost half our payroll right there for just this year without Suppan and I haven't touched on everyone. With Suppan that's over 50 million dollars.

 

Now of course some of those players will have to be replaced, but that's where you hope that our farm system continues to develop players. We have a couple years yet before we really have to pay everyone. Are we going to sign every player? No, of course not, but we're going to be getting a lot of comp picks, and we've got a fantastic scouting dept.

 

My point is only that you can't say we've got an 83 million dollar payroll and then we're going to have to pay these guys as if we'd still have that 83 million, but then have to add from there.

 

To just assume that we're going to lose everyone...I just don't get it. This isn't Wendy Selig-Prieb's Brewers any longer.

And at 83 million dollars, the Brewers are still likely going to make a lot of money.

[Gopher74]

It was a combination of both being sent down to work on his approach and swing, and the scar tissue breaking up. He probably would have never had the late season he did if he didn't get sent down. It allowed him to relax and work out his struggles in a low pressure situation.

I don't think the 6 games in AAA had anywhere near as big of an impact as his wrist getting healthy almost a year to the day that the Doctors gave the team for his wrist to be fully healed.

 

Rickie Weeks at his worst over a full season was about the same as Brian Roberts was last year, his second best season in the big leagues. The fact that Rickie's 25 years old and Robert's is going to be 31 makes this a bad trade even if Weeks didn't have a incredibly amount of potential.

 

Weeks is the question mark for this team this year. It's make it or break for him. If he excells we are right to hold onto him. If he bombs, which he has the potential too, we will be trading him for a prospect or two later this year

I can pretty much promise you that the Milwaukee Brewers are NOT going to trade Rickie Weeks for a prospect this year, even if he has as bad a start as he had last year. Just the fact that he was so good in the second half would be enough reason to not trade him, and especially not for "a prospect or two". That's just absolutely not going to happen. I think this is an important year for Weeks, but even at 25 to suggest that if he has another down year that the Brewers are just going to dump him isn't realistic. They've got too much invested in him, and they have him too cheap for the next 4 years for it to make any kind of sense to deal him.

 

The Nationals were willing to give up a 25 year old all-star closer with 140 saves already and a 2.79 Career ERA for Weeks after a down year. I can't imagine his value would go from that a couple months ago...(and by the way, the Brewers turned that deal down) to just dumping him in another couple months.

 

[joepepsi]

To just assume that we're going to lose everyone...I just don't get it.

I don't think anyone has said that, but if it helps your argument, then go for it....

[Gobias Industries]

I don't think the 6 games in AAA had anywhere near as big of an impact as his wrist getting healthy almost a year to the day that the Doctors gave the team for his wrist to be fully healed.

I know his wrist was giving him problems the whole year. ( The last series of the year he said in a post game interview he still can't swing the bat as hard as he would like) I just can't buy that it got that much better in the six days that he was down there. It had to be some combination of mental and physical problems dogging him in June and July.

[twobrewers]

I can't believe I almost agree with Briggs. It has been talked about a little in the Escobar Thread in the Minor League Forum...

 

But, if Weeks doesn't "break out" this year - we need to stop talking about his potential. He is a good player - with poor defensive skills. At some point, he needs to live up to his potential. It seems like everyone is willing to give him an unlimited amount of time to justify his immense talents.

 

Everyone points out to his healthy September. While it is very likely his injuries have affected his first few seasons, everyone is so willing to accept September as an example of a fully healthy Weeks. It's just as possible he was on a hot streak.

 

I am willing to give Weeks another year...but after that, I am significantly recalibrating my expectations.