Melvin interview on WSSP: Gross, Kapler, Gwynn likely and other stuff

[Gopher74]

As to projections, then what? Kapler for his career has a 748 OPS but he hasn't been over 700 since 2003 when he got to spend some time in Colorado.

I'm not sure what this is saying.

 

I'm just arguing with the logic that you don't invite a guy to spring training because of what someone projects him to do. There is no crystal ball here, if there were, this game would be a lot easier for guys like Doug Melvin.

 

The Brewers needed someone to play CF the first 25 games of the year so they brought in Gabe Kapler on a non-guaranteed deal. The suggestion that they shouldn't have done that because of his Marcel projection is...wrong for lack of a better and non-insulting word.

 

And once he's here, then the coaches actual scouting of the player should absolutely take precedence over his projected stat line.

 

It's like some people think there's no need for actual scouting, that you just look at what someone's projected to do and you sign players based on that. The problem is, if you do that, you're not going to have much success on reclamation projects such as Doug Davis, Derrick Turnbow, Matt Wise, Capuano, Overbay, ect..ect..ect..

 

Again, this isn't about Gabe Kapler per say, this is about the rationale behind how we look at players and bring them in.

[Gopher74]

A projection like Marcel is where we should start when we are trying to make the best educated guess. All it does is look at the performance from the most recent seasons, regresses it to the mean some and adjusts for age. From there, you can add any other information you might know (injury history, possible park effects, whether he was being platooned, etc...) to tweak it. Marcel is just the best "dumb" guess at future performance based on prior performance.

 

Yes, of course, I understand what projections are. I took exception with the suggestion that Melvin shouldn't have brought Kapler in because of his projection which appeared to be how you phrased it to me.

Projections to me are something that's fun for fans to use, but I don't want the GM's and Scouts of the team I root for to use projections for more than a little afterthought. Yes, be cognizant of a players past production, but look at their actual skills before that, and in the case of a player like Kapler, where you have a need, I like the fact that they brought him in, and are evaluating him in camp despite the fact that his projections and his 3-year splits would discourage such a move.

 

I think with Kapler even more, he's suffered from injuries the last couple years. Now I don't think that he's going to be anything more than just a passable player for the first month and maybe a nice defensive replacement, PH'er.

 

By the way, I didn't mean to come off the least bit insulting. I generally respect you and your take, and usually agree.

 

I was directing it towards Melvin and anyone else in Brewer management who thought it was a good idea to bring Kapler back from the dead.

I tend to give Melvin the benefit of the doubt when it comes to picking players off the scrap heap. Who else would you like to have seen the Brewers bring in?

 

I guess to me, there just aren't many players out there who would have come to the Brewers for a tiny salary, and who would have accepted such a deal knowing that they could very easily and likely be cut once Cameron's 25 games are complete.

[danzig6767]

As to projections, then what? Kapler for his career has a 748 OPS but he hasn't been over 700 since 2003 when he got to spend some time in Colorado.

It's like some people think there's no need for actual scouting, that you just look at what someone's projected to do and you sign players based on that. The problem is, if you do that, you're not going to have much success on reclamation projects such as Doug Davis, Derrick Turnbow, Matt Wise, Capuano, Overbay, ect..ect..ect..

 

Again, this isn't about Gabe Kapler per say, this is about the rationale behind how we look at players and bring them in.

All those players you listed were still pretty young when Melvin snatched them up, Kapler is old. Plenty of extremely marginal vets through the years have been able to come into a spring training for teams and hit well, but stink up the joint once they have to face big league pitchers instead of camp arms quite a bit.

I don't care at all that Melvin brought Kapler to camp, but he has hit like crap his last three seasons in the bigs, plus he's coming off a full season not playing. Odds likely are much higher that Kapler would continue his crappy hitting with us that he did the last three years he played than him magically finding some fountain of youth and hitting decent like he did when he was JJ Hardy's age.

Then again, if Kapler manages to make the roster, it likely would only be for 25 games and hopefully most of that time would just consist of him watching from the dugout while eat sunflower seeds.

 

[Gopher74]

danzig6767 wrote:

All those players you listed were still pretty young when Melvin snatched them up, Kapler is old. Plenty of extremely marginal vets through the years have been ale to come into a spring training for teams and hit well, but stink up the joint once they have to face big league pitchers instead of camp arms quite a bit.

 

As I said, I wasn't specifically talking about Gabe Kapler when I was making my point, I was talking about using any of the projections to say that we should bring this player to camp or that we shouldn't bring that player to camp as opposed to letting Doug Melvin and the Scouting Dept invite a guy to camp and then decide to go with him.

I can't imagine that Doug Davis was greeted much differently than Gabe Kapler on this board given his high walk rates and the fact that he very likely wasn't "projected" to have a good year at all when he first got here.

 

Either way, my point still stands, we're without Cameron for the first 25 games, and the options we had to play LF were all left handed(Gross and Gwynn) and can't hit right handers very well at all. I just can't see why people would be upset with bringing Kapler, a good defender in to see if he can resurrect his baseball career for 25 games. And if he's around after the first 25 games, he likely played very well.

I don't care at all that Melvin brought Kapler to camp, but he has hit like crap his last three seasons in the bigs, plus he's coming off a full season not playing. Odds likely are much higher that Kapler would continue his crappy hitting with us that he did the last three years he played than him magically finding some fountain of youth and hitting decent like he did when he was JJ Hardy's age.

 

I don't believe the argument was ever made that he'd "magically" do anything, but we needed a cheap right handed CF'er who we could possibly get rid of after 25 games. That he's not projected to hit well isn't a argument against bringing him in.

[joepepsi]

The Brewers needed someone to play CF the first 25 games of the year so they brought in Gabe Kapler on a non-guaranteed deal.

Actually Kapler was signed on January 2nd, Cameron on January 15th. I think Kapler was signed because a) the risk was minimal and they were short a RH reserve OF, and b) Doug loves his ex-Rangers. He's at best a 5th OF'er. Nix, although left handed, is a better choice for that role, to say nothing of Gross, Dillon, or Gwynn.

[MJLiverock]

Kapler was signed on 12/20/07 and Cameron wasn't added until 01/11/08. Melvin may have know he was close on Cameron and needed a guy for 25 games or he could have just been throwing a chance to a former player of his. I will admit I wasn't very excited about Kapler's prospects when he was signed, as others have mentioned he wasn't very good before he sat out year, but was glad it was a non guarnteed invite. My biggest fear with him was the chance he will be labled a gritty verteran presence and kept around for longer than he his needed or gets more playing time than his ability warrants.

[MJLiverock]

Sorry, JoePepsi, I didn't meant to duplicate your post. I guess we were typing at the same time, great minds and such.

[joepepsi]

No problem, great minds do think alike. I'm guessing so do sociopaths. I like your dates better, mine were from Yahoo.

 

I cringed when they signed Kapler. It just felt like one of those signings where you knew management would do anything to make sure he makes the team.

[rluzinski]

Yes, of course, I understand what projections are.

 

A projection doesn't even have to be statistically based, so I can't say that you don't know what one is.

 

With regard to the type of statistical projection I'm talking about, I don't think you really understand them. You are basically saying that evaluating a player during spring training is a better predictor of future performance than simply looking at prior performance. For an established veteran with thousands of major league ABs, that's a difficult position to defend. Heck, should we ignore all of Prince's prior performance and estimate his expected future performance based on a scouting evaluation of his spring training performance? Do you honestly think that would result in a more accurate projection?

[dadofandrew]

Kapler was brought into be a reserve OF and a defensive replacement...his ceiling is meaningless. I think most everyone would prefer to have a guy brimming with talent get waived by someone and pass through waivers and have the Brewers pick him up, having the same skill set as Gabe.

 

That seems a bit unlikely, however, due to the Crew's waiver position and the simple fact guys with talent like that are rarely waived.

[rluzinski]

Or the Brewers could have Hart play CF and Dillon play RF, as I already mentioned. And we already have a defensive replacement with at least some upside (Gwynn).