Melvin interview on WSSP: Gross, Kapler, Gwynn likely and other stuff

[rluzinski]

I am still amazed that Melvin signed Kapler, much less is considering him in any kind of starting role. His Marcel projection for 2008:

 

.263 BA

.310 OBP

.397 SLG

.707 OPS

 

Are you telling me that sliding Hart to CF and Dillon in RF against lefties is the inferior alternative? I just don't get it.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Are you telling me that sliding Hart to CF and Dillon in RF against lefties is the inferior alternative?

 

I'm not sure who the 'you' is here...Al, or me, or another poster, or Ned Yost and Doug Melvin? Honestly, I don't get Kapler either, except that he has ties to Melvin, bats RH, and can presumably play some good defense, in keeping with the Brewers' unofficial 2008 theme of 'hey, let's catch a few balls this year.' I hope that he's a short term fix while Cameron is suspended, at which time he will become a roving outfield instructor or something, but something tells me he'll endear himself to the 'brain' trust and stick all year. He did have some good numbers vs LHP a couple of years back, so if they confine themselves to using him in CF vs. LHP in the first month, he may well be a decent fit. But is it worth keeping the guy on the roster for that? Particularly given Yost's seeming reluctance to go with strict platoons...

[Gopher74]

What about this comment?

 

And Gwynn's young and still improving

 

Right up there with '[Catcher X] sucks at hitting, so he's gotta be good on defense'. Gwynn's a decent choice as a 4th/5th OF, but should not be in any type of starting role imo.

Which part of his statement about Gwynn isn't correct? Clearly he's young. That's beyond debate. And Gwynn's improving. I'd think that's also beyond debate. Gwynn has improved just about every year.

 

No, he's not a starting caliber player right now, but I don't get how his statement was in any way incorrect.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

And Gwynn's improving. I'd think that's also beyond debate. Gwynn has improved just about every year.

 

Sure, he may marginally improve/regress from year to year now, but I think it's pretty safe to say that what you see is what you get with Gwynn by now.

[Gopher74]

I am still amazed that Melvin signed Kapler, much less is considering him in any kind of starting role. His Marcel projection for 2008:

I'm a little amazed at how projections are used above all else on here. That's what someone is guessing he'll do, and it's pretty lacking because he didn't play last year. I guess I look at the Bill James projections, the Marcel Projection as a pretty loose guess, and not something that should be used to make roster decisions.

 

[endaround]

Gross can hit, Gwynn can't. If Gwynn can't use his big tool of defense because he can't stay on the field against left handers, what good is he? And his type of hitting should not have huge platoon changes. The other thing is Gwynn is not young. He's 25, meaning he really isn't a prospect anymore.

 

As to projections, then what? Kapler for his career has a 748 OPS but he hasn't been over 700 since 2003 when he got to spend some time in Colorado.

[dadofandrew]

Particularly given Yost's seeming reluctance to go with strict platoons...

 

Ned went with a Jenkins/Mench platoon last year until Dillon got hot in September, so he uses it nicely if that's the parts he has. As for Hart in CF and Joe in Rf, it seems rather obvious the team is going with a defense first vibe in CF, which isn't he end of the world as long as the solution is not Nix or such. Kapler and Gwynn both appear to be very good defenders, and Gross is probably a plus CF offensively, so the pieces seem to fit nicely to me.

[JohnBriggs12]

"Gross can hit, Gwynn can't".

 

The truth is both have some, though different, offensive skills, but neither has yet shown they hit well enough to be everyday major leaguers. That's not degrading either's talent as both are legit major league players, just not everyday starter types.

 

One can play slightly above average defense in CF while the other is somewhat defensively challanged in the corner spots.

 

One is 3 years younger than the other, and therefore more likely to show offensive improvement over the other who's at the age where generally what you see is what you get.

[lukevan]

Gross out-SLGs and out-OBPs Gwynn. Yes they both bring different things to the table, but Gross brings a t-bone steak and mashed potato while Gwynn brings tofu dogs and grits.

 

The difference in their defensive abilities doesn't bridge the gap between their hitting, not even close IMO.

[endaround]

The fact that Gross is older means that he is in his prime and therefore more likely to have a a career year. Gwynn could go to Nashville to work on obtaining Craig Counsell levels of power.

[rluzinski]

I'm a little amazed at how projections are used above all else on here. That's what someone is guessing he'll do, and it's pretty lacking because he didn't play last year. I guess I look at the Bill James projections, the Marcel Projection as a pretty loose guess, and not something that should be used to make roster decisions.

 

A projection like Marcel is where we should start when we are trying to make the best educated guess. All it does is look at the performance from the most recent seasons, regresses it to the mean some and adjusts for age. From there, you can add any other information you might know (injury history, possible park effects, whether he was being platooned, etc...) to tweak it. Marcel is just the best "dumb" guess at future performance based on prior performance.

 

I'm not sure who the 'you' is here...Al, or me, or another poster, or Ned Yost and Doug Melvin?

 

I was directing it towards Melvin and anyone else in Brewer management who thought it was a good idea to bring Kapler back from the dead.

[DrWood]

gwynn doesn't really need a platoon partner. I don't know what he did last year, but I seem to recall his splits were not extreme at all.

[Tbadder]

Gwynn needs to play in Cameron's absence because he has more potential value than Kaplar. Again, if Gwynn can get hot at the beginning of the year we might be able to deal him, which is important because it doesn't look like we're going to be able to deal any pitching. And while Gross is the better hitter now, neither is adequate long term. If you're going to play Gross, I'd play Dillon and put Hart in center.

[joepepsi]

I don't get the Kapler love either. If it's defense, well, isn't Nix supposed to be a pretty good CF'er too? If Ned and Doug refuse to put Gross or Hart in CF for the fist 25 games, wouldn't Nix be a better option than either Kapler or Gwynn anyway?

[TooLiveBrew]

Gross out-SLGs and out-OBPs Gwynn. Yes they both bring different things to the table, but Gross brings a t-bone steak and mashed potato while Gwynn brings tofu dogs and grits.

 

Bravo... bravo. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

 

 

gwynn doesn't really need a platoon partner. I don't know what he did last year, but I seem to recall his splits were not extreme at all.

Gwynn has had extreme BABIP numbers in both 2007 & 2006 at AAA - especially against LHP - 2006: .406 (& .360 overall), 2007: .383 (& .321 overall). I think the only thing we really know from that is that Gwynn can consistently carry a solid OBP/BA when he gets a BABIP somewhere around or north of .350... which is obviously not something that's going to happen at the MLB level.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Grits are underrated. Not grit, mind you, but grits...I've lived south of the Waffle House line, so I've had some really good grits. I'd have to think hard about grits vs. a mashed potato.

 

I gues what I'm saying is that it's not fair to grits to compare it (them?) to Gwynn's offense.

 

Ned went with a Jenkins/Mench platoon last year until Dillon got hot in September, so he uses it nicely if that's the parts he has.

 

I would not cite Mench as an example of Yost using a platoon nicely. Of Mench's 308 plate appearances, do you know how many came against RHP? Remember that he had an OPS of 564 vs. RHP, as opposed to 900 vs. LHP, and that the team had Jenkins and Gross to hit RHP...both were better defensively in addition to the platoon advantage, so there was little reason to have Mench in there vs. righties. Platooning would mean that the guy would never see a righty, right? Or almost never? How about 46% of his PA coming vs. RHP? Forty-six percent. FORTY SIX PERCENT? One of those plate appearances will stick in a lot of people's heads, of course. Ned Yost has many characteristics as a manager, but I don't think there's evidence to support the notion that adhering to strict platoon roles is one of them.

[lukevan]

Ha ha, sorry SoCal, couldn't think of anything else to compare to potatoes.

[rluzinski]

Ned Yost has many characteristics as a manager, but I don't think there's evidence to support the notion that adhering to strict platoon roles is one of them.

 

Ned is too infatuated with the "hot hand" to ever use a strict platoon.

[DrWood]

Grits are underrated. Not grit, mind you, but grits...I've lived south of the Waffle House line, so I've had some really good grits. I'd have to think hard about grits vs. a mashed potato.

hmm, there are waffle houses all over the south, and I believe you can get grits at them.

If you want something more upscale sounding than grits, just call it polenta.

 

[Ennder]

grits are terrible, just one more thing I don't miss about living in NC.

[SoCalBrewfan]

hmm, there are waffle houses all over the south, and I believe you can get grits at them.

 

Yes...apparently my reference didn't register there. I guess you are not familiar with the Waffle House - IHOP line?

 

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/36622

 

grits are terrible,

 

Heathen.

[Brian the Automator]

I've always called it the Grits/Hashbrown line, but admittedly, the two do coexist on the menu in the South.

 

Yeah, I've never understood what people like about grits. Maybe I haven't had them done "right". I'm a hashbrown guy all the way.

[homer]

Cheese grits are paltable and can actually be quite tasty. Regular grits taste like diseased chipmunk pelt.

[dadofandrew]

I never had grits until I tried them at a breakfast buffet when in the South on our honeymoon...awful.

 

Of course, plain oatmeal is pretty bad too until you add some stuff to it.

[Gopher74]

And Gwynn's improving. I'd think that's also beyond debate. Gwynn has improved just about every year.

 

Sure, he may marginally improve/regress from year to year now, but I think it's pretty safe to say that what you see is what you get with Gwynn by now.

I really don't think that's safe to say at all.

 

And he hasn't marginally improved or regressed. He's improved every single year. Let's face it, he was clearly over drafted. When he got drafted, his name was a big factor. However, he's since improved to the point where he's worthy of that spot.

 

I just don't understand how you can say that a guy who continues to improve and has a great mind for the game is what he is at 24 years old and that he's not going to improve by now. That's not even a little bit fair.

 

It's entirely possible that he become a more selective hitter and raises his OBP significantly. IF he does that, then he goes from being a 4th OF'er to a very good leadoff hitter. Of course, I'm not saying that's going to happen, and I'm not saying I want him to start. I've never even been a real fan of Gwynn as I think the casual fan overrates him because of his father, but I do respect how he continually improves his game and has worked himself into become a serviceable 4th OF'er.