THT "Young Pitchers to Watch: Part 1"

[TooLiveBrew]

**If this needs to be in the minor leagues, I apologize... since the focus is on finding the 'next' Gallardo/Lincecum, I felt the ML forum was good**

 

Interesting read, and since it's free content, I'm just going to paste the article here:

 

 

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Young pitchers to watch: Part 1

Posted by Derek Carty at 7:18pm

 

After the year pitchers like Tim Lincecum and Yovani Gallardo had in 2007, a lot of people are trying to identify the "next big thing" for 2008. In this two-part series, I'll point out some guys I think could have a fantasy impact in 2008. In Part 1, we'll look at players who threw a large enough sample at Triple-A or in the majors last year. In Part 2, we'll look at the Double-A guys.

 

Criteria

When attempting to identify young impact pitchers, we must consider two criteria: talent and opportunity. If a player has talent but the major league rotation is full, his Triple-A dominance doesn't gain you any fantasy points. If a player has an opportunity but little talent, he's going to flounder and that opportunity will soon go to someone else... right after he screws up your fantasy team's ratios. Therefore, we'll examine players using these two categories.

 

 

J.P. Howell-Rays

Talent

 Year Age League Level G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% BABIP 2005 22 CAL A+ 8 8 46.3 9.3 4.7 68 0.274 2005 22 TEX AA 3 3 18 11.5 2.5 63 0.256 2005 22 PCL AAA 7 7 38 6.9 4.5 56 0.355 2005 22 MLB MLB 15 15 72.2 6.7 4.8 55 0.298 2006 23 PCL AAA 8 8 41 8.6 3.3 58 0.383 2006 23 IL AAA 10 10 55 8.0 2.5 48 0.333 2006 23 MLB MLB 8 8 42.1 7.0 3.0 45 0.357 2007 24 IL AAA 21 21 123.3 10.6 2.5 53 0.294 2007 24 MLB MLB 10 10 51 8.7 3.7 46 0.391 

2005 scout grade from John Sickels: B+

2006 note from John Sickels: Was rushed very quickly, too quickly in my view... His walk rate was too high in the majors for a guy who doesn't throw hard.

 

Howell has been all over the place in the past few years, including three stints in the majors. His peripherals improved each time, and his excellent Triple-A numbers in 2007 bode well for his 2008 production should he win a spot in Tampa Bay's rotation. He's still just 24 and shown the ability to strike batters out and limit walks, in addition to putting up ground ball rates ranging from good to great.

 

Opportunity

 

Likely MLB Rotation:

1. Scott Kazmir

2. James Shields

3. Matt Garza

4. Battle, including Howell

5. Battle, including Howell

 

He's battling for two spots with Andy Sonnanstine, Jason Hammel, Edwin Jackson and young longshots Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann and Jacob McGee. Sonnanstine and Jackson are probably the favorites, but Jackson's peripherals haven't been very good and Howell will likely get a shot at some point. When he does, he could be a very nice waiver wire pickup.

 

Jeff Niemann-Rays

Talent

 Year Age League Level G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% BABIP 2006 23 SL AA 14 14 77.3 9.8 3.4 43 0.267 2007 24 IL AAA 25 25 127 8.7 3.3 41 0.343 

2005 scout grade from John Sickels: B+

2006 scout grade from John Sickels: B

2007 scout grade from John Sickels: B+ (can he stay healthy?)

2008 scout grade from John Sickels: B

 

Niemann is a talented pitcher, but he's struggled with health since being drafted fourth overall in 2004. He pitched just 30 innings in 2005, underwent shoulder surgery after the season, and then his 2006 was cut short. In 2007, he finally put in a full season. His peripherals don't jump out at you, but they are pretty good. It can't hurt how scouts rave about his stuff (look at Sickels' grades; B and B+ despite injury woes). All said, Niemann figures to be a quality major league pitcher one day, if he can stay healthy.

 

Opportunity

 

Likely MLB Rotation:

1. Scott Kazmir

2. James Shields

3. Matt Garza

4. Battle, with Niemann as a longshot

5. Battle, with Niemann as a longshot

 

Niemann probably won't make the Rays out of spring training. There likely won't be room for him during the year unless someone gets injured, and the Rays have other young pitchers to consider if someone does get injured. Of those other young pitchers, though, Niemann has been around the longest and could be first in line. While Niemann has talent, the opportunity isn't guaranteed.

 

 

Adam Miller - Indians

Talent

 Year Age League Level G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% BABIP 2004 19 SAL A 19 19 43.3 9.6 2.5 -- -- 2004 19 CAR A+ 8 8 91 10.5 2.8 -- -- 2005 20 CAR A+ 12 12 59.7 6.8 2.6 -- -- 2006 21 EL AA 26 24 154 9.2 2.5 55 0.296 2007 22 IL AAA 19 11 62.7 9.8 3.0 53 0.349 

2005 scout grade from John Sickels: A

2006 scout grade from John Sickels: B-

2007 scout grade from John Sickels: B (would be A- or B+ if healthy, but I don't trust his elbow)

 

Miller always has had outstanding numbers, but has been hounded by injuries. The 2005 line looks out of place with that 6.8 K/9, but we need to remember that he had elbow problems. These resurfaced in 2007, in addition to a finger injury, but he still pitched well.

 

If Miller can ever stay healthy, he's has the skills to be a very good major league pitcher. He strikes out a lot of batters, doesn't walk many, and gets lot of ground balls. Major league pitchers who do all three include such guys as Francisco Liriano, Felix Hernandez, and everybody's favorite sleeper this year, Dustin McGowan.

 

Opportunity

 

Likely MLB Rotation:

1. C.C. Sabathia

2. Fausto Carmona

3. Paul Byrd

4. Jake Westbrook

5. Battle, not including Miller

 

Miller will have to prove he's healthy and pitch effectively in Triple-A to work his way back into the Indians' plans, but given his former top prospect status and immense talent, it probably won't take too much to convince them. They have one open spot now, but the guys vying for it aren't ultra-talented. Aaron Laffey is decent, but Cliff Lee and Jeremy Sowers aren't very good. Byrd is getting older and isn't great himself, so there's a possibility Miller could get some action in 2008.

 

 

Dallas Braden-Athletics

Talent

 Year Age League Level G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% BABIP 2005 21 CAL A+ 7 7 44 13.1 2.3 40 0.314 2005 21 TEX AA 16 16 96.7 6.6 3.0 45 0.337 2006 22 RK, A+, AA 10 10 37.3 13.3 1.9 35 0.358 2007 23 PCL AAA 11 11 69.7 10.5 2.5 41 0.282 2007 23 MLB MLB 20 14 72.1 6.8 3.2 37 0.355 

2005 scout grade from John Sickels: none

2006 scout grade from John Sickels: none

2007 scout grade from John Sickels: none

 

Braden was injured in 2006 and bounced all over the place, but he was exceptional in Triple-A in 2007. In the majors... well, it was a different story. His minor league numbers look as though he could be a quality pitcher, but some scouts don't think he'll make it as a starter at the major league level.

 

Opportunity

 

Likely MLB Rotation:

1. Joe Blanton

2. Rich Harden

3. Chad Gaudin

4. Justin Duchscherer*

5. Lenny DiNardo*

*Not set in stone

 

Oakland's rotation has plenty of question marks, and there's a good chance Braden will see time in the majors this season. Blanton could get traded, Harden usually gets injured, Duchscherer could fizzle as a starter, and Lenny DiNardo is no superstar. Braden is a very interesting guy to watch.

 

 

Edinson Volquez-Reds

Talent

 Year Age League Level G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% BABIP 2005 21 CAL A+ 11 11 66.7 10.4 1.6 48 0.331 2005 21 TEX AA 10 10 58.7 7.5 2.6 47 0.306 2006 22 PCL AAA 21 21 120.7 9.7 5.4 45 0.278 2007 23 CAL A+ 7 7 35 9.8 5.1 40 0.264 2007 23 TEX AA 11 11 51.3 9.8 3.0 47 0.240 2007 23 PCL AAA 8 8 50 11.9 3.8 44 0.238 

2005 scout grade from John Sickels: none

2006 scout grade from John Sickels: B+ (excellent raw talent... some question marks)

2007 scout grade from John Sickels: B (Wild guess on the grade. I don't trust the Rangers to develop him properly)

2008 note from John Sickels: Rebuilt his mechanics... Great stuff, all boils down to command, just like before.

 

Traded to the Reds from Texas this offseason, Volquez has plenty of talent. His biggest asset is his strikeout rate, which was incredible at 11.9 in Triple-A in 2007. His control has been shaky at points, but it was very good in 2005. If he can fine-tune that just a bit, Volquez could be an excellent major league pitcher.

 

Opportunity

 

Likely MLB Rotation:

1. Aaron Harang

2. Bronson Arroyo

3. Battle, including Volquez

4. Battle, including Volquez

5. Battle, including Volquez

 

The Reds have several quality options for three spots, including Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey and Matt Belisle, as well as Josh Fogg and Jeremy Affeldt. Volquez's peripherals have been great this spring, but his ERA is 5.63. With Dusty Baker as his manager, it's looking like Volquez might start the year in the minors. He figures to get recalled at some point this year, though, and he has the skills to be a very good major league pitcher.

 

 

Kei Igawa-Yankees

Talent

 Year Age League Level G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% BABIP 2005 25 CEN JAP 27 25 172.3 7.6 3.1 -- 0.345 2006 26 CEN JAP 29 21 209 8.4 2.1 -- 0.292 2007 27 MLB MLB 14 12 67.2 7.1 4.9 30 0.307 2007 27 IL AAA 11 11 65.7 9.7 2.1 35 0.320 

Kei Igawa was pretty bad for the Yankees to start the year, but his great Triple-A numbers after his demotion really caught my eye. He'll be just 28 this year, and he had pretty good numbers in Japan, so don't count Igawa out just yet.

 

Opportunity

 

Likely MLB Rotation:

1. Chien-Ming Wang

2. Andy Pettitte

3. Philip Hughes

4. Mike Mussina

5. Ian Kennedy

 

Igawa will start the year in Triple-A, but if he pitches as well as he did there in 2007, he'll probably see some time in the majors this year. Mike Mussina's best days are behind him, and the Yankees will limit the innings of Hughes, Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain. Plus, Kennedy is no sure thing, and Hughes has had injury troubles in the past.

 

 

Ian Kennedy-Yankees

Talent

 Year Age League Level G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% BABIP 2007 22 FSL A+ 11 11 54.7 10.5 3.5 35 0.280 2007 22 EL AA 9 9 48 10.7 3.2 41 0.234 2007 22 IL AAA 6 6 33 9.3 3.0 41 0.267 2007 22 MLB MLB 3 3 19 7.1 4.3 26 0.237 

2007 scout grade from John Sickels: B- (potential B/B+ if he can regain '05 form)

2008 scout grade from John Sickels: B+

 

Kennedy's strikeout rates were good in the minors, but dropped off in the majors. Scouts call Kennedy a finesse guy and think the Ks will fall off further once batters see him again. If that happens, his control hasn't been good enough to compensate. Kennedy has the potential to be good, but he could also fail miserably. Consider a downside of a 5.0 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9.

 

Opportunity

 

Likely MLB Rotation:

1. Chien-Ming Wang

2. Andy Pettitte

3. Philip Hughes

4. Mike Mussina

5. Ian Kennedy

 

With Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen, Kennedy will start the year in the rotation. He'll have to pitch well to keep the spot once Joba gets moved, but he'll get to take a stab at it.

 

 

Sean Gallagher - Cubs

Talent

 Year Age League Level G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% BABIP 2005 19 MDW A 26 26 141 8.5 3.5 47 0.261 2006 20 FSL A+ 13 13 78.7 9.2 4.4 57 0.345 2006 20 SL AA 15 15 86.3 9.5 5.8 51 0.326 2007 21 SL AA 11 11 58.7 8.3 3.7 49 0.291 2007 21 PCL AAA 8 8 39 8.5 3.0 45 0.308 

2006 scout grade from John Sickels: B

2007 scout grade from John Sickels: B (inning-eater type)

2008 scout grade from John Sickels: B

 

Gallagher isn't the most talented pitcher on this list, but he could be a usable player in deeper leagues. His strikeout rates weren't fantastic last year and his control has been a little iffy, but he has shown the ability to get ground balls and is at least decent in every regard. His scouting grade seems to indicate the same. You could find better; you could find worse.

 

Opportunity

 

Likely MLB Rotation:

1. Carlos Zambrano

2. Ted Lilly

3. Rich Hill

4. Ryan Dempster

5. Battle, with Gallagher as a longshot

 

Likely MLB Rotation if Traded to Orioles:

1. Jeremy Guthrie

2. Daniel Cabrera

3. Adam Loewen (might start on DL)

4. Battle

5. Battle

 

If Gallagher stays in Chicago, he's got several pitchers ahead of him, including Jon Lieber, Jason Marquis, Sean Marshall and possibly Kevin Hart. He could get a shot at some point in 2008, but there is no guarantee of that.

 

If he is traded to Baltimore, he'll be in a tougher league, but his chances of playing greatly increase. The O's have several players battling for spots, some more talented than others, but Gallagher is skilled enough to get a shot over some of them. A trade is looking more likely in recent days given the report that the Cubs may have included Jose Ceda in their offer for Brian Roberts.

 

 

Concluding thoughts

That does it for our Triple-A pitchers. Next time, we'll look at some Double-A pitchers, including some more exciting guys like Johnny Cueto and Gio Gonzalez.

 

Derek Carty is a student in New Jersey who loves Fantasy Baseball. His articles can also be found at FOX Sports, and he'll be contributing content to Rotoworld in the coming season. He welcomes questions via e-mail.

 

 

EDIT: Linkage

[joepepsi]

No Manny Parra? But two Yankees? Oh, I see, the writer lives in Jersey....

[bjkrautk]

No Manny Parra? But two Yankees? Oh, I see, the writer lives in Jersey....

"In Part 1, we'll look at players who threw a large enough sample at Triple-A or in the majors last year. In Part 2, we'll look at the Double-A guys."

 

I'm guessing that Manny's injury history, and/or limited time in AAA last season is what's keeping him out of the article.

[fondybrewfan]

No Manny Parra? But two Yankees? Oh, I see, the writer lives in Jersey....

"In Part 1, we'll look at players who threw a large enough sample at Triple-A or in the majors last year. In Part 2, we'll look at the Double-A guys."

 

I'm guessing that Manny's injury history, and/or limited time in AAA last season is what's keeping him out of the article.

I hope so because if he is Kei freaking Igawa and Sean stinking Gallagher as being "better" than Parra than he needs to layoff the cheech.

[TooLiveBrew]

"Kei Igawa was pretty bad for the Yankees to start the year, but his great Triple-A numbers after his demotion really caught my eye. He'll be just 28 this year, and he had pretty good numbers in Japan, so don't count Igawa out just yet."

Yes, the guy's a Jersey boy, and therefore likely Yanks fan, but I personally find the Igawa case interesting. I don't take this as his true ranking of the top 5 minor-league SP, just some interesting candidates to examine. There are a lot of guys he could have included, but didn't. I don't take this to be a diss at all - to anyone.

[RightFieldCoder]

When attempting to identify young impact pitchers, we must consider two criteria: talent and opportunity. If a player has talent but the major league rotation is full, his Triple-A dominance doesn't gain you any fantasy points.

This is most likely the other reason Parra is not included. As of right now, most people believe he will spend most of the year (or at least start the year) in the minors. Not very useful for a fantasy team.

[joepepsi]

Igawa made 11 AAA starts. He was 5-4 with a 3.69 ERA in 68-1/3 ip. He did have fantastic K and K:BB rates, striking out 71 and walking only 15. But he also gave up 10 homers in those 11 starts. I'm not saying that's horrible, but it's not particularly impressive considering he was already 28 when he went to AAA, and he's a veteran of the Japan's major leagues.

[Gopher74]

This is most likely the other reason Parra is not included. As of right now, most people believe he will spend most of the year (or at least start the year) in the minors. Not very useful for a fantasy team.

I don't think anyone expects him to spend "most" of the year in AAA. I think at most some expect him to start the year out in AAA, but to eventually move up to the big leagues.

 

[nate82]

Where is David Price on that list? How can you have Igawa on that list but not have Price from the Rays on the list? A six foot six power left hander not on the list?

[Ennder]

Well it is titled Part 1 and it was stated the article is just for fantasy baseball and most don't think Price will be up until late in the season if at all this year.

[ILuvDaBush]

I would imagine he will be profiled in the AA portion, with Johnny Cueto.