Fantasy baseball trade help

[apirk]

ok I am kind of 50/50 on this trade I was proposed and I usually just figure it out but I thought I'd like to hear what the good people here had to say.

It is an auction keeper league(wouldn't keep any of these players though) We use basic 5x5 only we use OBP% instead of Avg

 

I was offered

Pat Burrell

Brandon Lyons

 

for Abreu ad Theriot

 

Right now I have a well balanced lineup but if anything I have a lack of power in which Burrell would help me out with( I have a bunch of 20-25 HRs minus AROD and Konerko) , and Lyons could be a nice extra closer to have. burrells biggest two weaknesses dont affect me (avg and Ks).

 

I do like Abreu and how complete a player he is and theriot is a nice bench player who can play two positions.

 

What do you say should I pull the trigger

[Houlie24x]

I would say don't do it. You can pick up another closer as the season goes on.

[apirk]

I don't need a closer I need HR and RBIs.

He is pretty much throwing Lyons in because he has cap problems.

[trwi7]

I would do that. Burrell is better than Abreu and Theriot sucks while Lyon should be a pretty good closer.

[TooLiveBrew]

^^

 

What he said. Pull the trigger on this one. Abreu's more advanced in years than Pat the Bat. Theriot is exceedingly replaceable.

[bigredrobbo]

In an auction league, the extra closer you don't need could be really useful trade bait down the line for someone you do need.

Plus, if the Cubs do pick up Roberts, The Riot could spend half the year on the bench.

 

I'd pull the trigger on this one, if it were me.

[jordanmuehl]

I'd have to agree with the above posters, especially if you're looking for home runs and RBI's -- both of which should be more abundant for Burrell (a true power hitter) in a good Phillies line-up, as opposed to Abreu, who is playing in a phenomenal line-up, but relies on his power to the gaps to produce runs (he'll probably have 85-90 RBI's this year).

[ryne100]

Burrell is better than Abreu?

 

Abreu had 11 homers in the second half, so I'm expecting more than the 16 he had last year. Lyon is no lock to keep the closer job. Theriot is bad but Abreu is so much better than Burrell.

Abreu 123 Runs, 16 HR, 101 RBIs .369 OBP 25 steals

Burrell 77 Runs, 30 HR, 97 RBIs, .400 OBP 0 steals

 

The runs and steals makes up for the power difference.

[apirk]

I agree but I have a surplus of R and SB

 

Here is my team it would probably help

 

1B James Looney $12

2B Aaron Hill $1

SS Orlando Cabrerra $4

3B AROD $45 r

OF Ichiro $28

OF Bobby Abreu $19

OF Hunter Pence $19

UT Konerko $11

P Erik Bedard $23

P Gagne $8 - overpaid big time

P Ben Sheets $9

P Tim Hudson $6

P Ubaldo Jimenez $4

P Scott Kazmir $15

P Fransisco Rodriguez $20 - overpaid

P Carlos Villanueva $1

P Adam Waingwright $4

 

Bench

2B/SS Ryan theriot $1

OF Wladamir Balentien $1

OF Jacoby Elsbury $7

OF/3b Bill Hall $3

OF Carlos gonzalez $1

OF Colby Rasmus $5

 

P Scott Baker $1

P Luke Hochevar $1

P Brian Wilson $2

P Chris Carpenter $2

[ryne100]

I would not call that a surplus of SB. Unless you have Reyes or Hanley plus another solid guy, It's hard to have a surplus. I think you have a good amount of speed. I'm assuming it's roto, so if you take a huge lead in speed you can always trade Abreu to someone with an abundance of power.

 

Admittedly, I am a huge fan of Abreu and not a fan of Burrell, but getting an extra 10-15 homers is way easier than getting 10-15 steals.

[apirk]

It is head to head

 

AROD, Ichiro, Abreu, Cabrerra and probably Pence will all steal 20+ bases and if Ellsbury starts he'll steal a bunch. That is a lot more then probably any other team has. Sure I don't have someone who will steal 50 but I have a handful who will steal 20+. I really don't like Burrell but he has good power and he won't hurt my OBP%. Good points though.

[ryne100]

Get someone better than Burrell then. Abreu is ranked 49 overall on ESPN, Burrell is 145. Manny, Adam Dunn, Nick Swisher are all ranked lower than Abreu and you could be able to get one of them. I would try for something bigger.

[Houlie24x]

Yeah I agree with Ryne. Look at every fantasy site or magazine, they all have Abreu way ahead of Burrell I think you would be better off trading Abreu for a 2b/SS if you were looking for more hrs. You could probably get guys like Jhonny Peralta or Khalil Greene at SS and double your hr production for next to nothing if that is all your looking for.

 

If Burrell and Abreu aren't keepers you might as well just stick with Abreu because he helps you in more categories overall. You never know who is going to get hurt or whatever else may change as the season goes on. At the very least, wait it out a few weeks into the season to see where your team is at.

 

I'm also not saying give up Cabrera for Greene or Peralta but if your giving up Abreu for Burrell your basically making a similar move at a different position.

[apirk]

Those magazines use AVg not OBP when ranking players and it is a huge difference in this case. Burrell was 18th last year Abreu was 55.

 

I've kind of thrown out a few other trades and I'll see what happens

[Houlie24x]

Abreu has a higher career obp and besides last year has been higher than Burrell every year. Even if they both put up the same obp as last year, the difference is so minimal that it really won't make a difference. They both will bounce around week to week.

 

I understand Abrue is declining but his overall numbers should still be better than Burrell.

[valpocrewsader]

Can I hi-jack rather than start a new thread? I need to pick 10 keepers from this list of 25 (typical Yahoo settings):

 

Posada, Fielder, Utley, Wright, Hall, Burrell, Dunn, Hart, LoDuca, Giambi, Beltre, V. Wells, Swisher

Sheets, Carmona, Lilly, Halladay, Burnett, F. Cordero, C. Cordero, Smoltz, Lowe, Capps, Hughes, Lidge

 

First 7 are easy: Fielder, Utley, Wright, Dunn, Hart, Sheets, Halladay

Next 2 are probably...: Burnett, Posada

Can't decide between: Hughes or Carmona

Nervous that I'm underestimating: V. Wells, Swisher, Smoltz, F. Cordero

 

Any thoughts?

[Houlie24x]

I think you have to keep Carmona and Smoltz for sure. Smoltz is old but its hard to give up a top 15 pitcher. I would then probably go with Hughes over Posada and Burnett. Your starting pitching is probably strong enough that you could afford to let Burnett go.

 

Is this a 12 team league? Your team looks really good.

[elbobbo82]

Hmmm....crewsader, I'd say just throw your best players back into the free agent pool http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Just kidding, he's my competition, it's only a nine-team league, by the way

[ryne100]

For sures: Fielder, Utley, Wright, Dunn, Hart, Sheets, Smoltz

I probably would: Halladay, Carmona, and Beltre

 

The reasoning: I think that you have enough youth and pitching that Hughes isn't as important to you, and I wouldn't keep 5 pitchers. Pitching is also way easier to get in season. Posada is a good catcher, but he's coming off a career year and probably not worth a keeper unless you look around and 4 or 5 teams are keeping a catcher, then I would replace Belte with Posada. Everyone is upset with Beltre because of his huge drop off after his MVP type year, but he still put up solid numbers last year. I wouldn't keep Burnett because you already have Sheets and Halladay, you don't need 3 pitchers with that much injury risk.

[apirk]

Smoltz or call me crazy but I might keep Swisher. Swisher is a nice 2 position player who could do really well in Chicago's lineup.

I am pretty down on Carmona though.

[TooLiveBrew]

Why down on Carmona?

 

Swisher should have a career year in not only leaving Oakland's pitchers' park, but swapping over to hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular. I'd imagine the fact that he can play OF & 1B on top of that would be quite useful.

[valpocrewsader]

This is why I wanted more than 10 keepers in our league. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif Thanks for the insight guys, still not sure what I'm going to do. Now I'm thinking about keeping Smoltz, Swisher, and Beltre -- they were barely on my radar before.

[pogokat]

swish has cf eligibility as well, so if its a position league, he's an excellent pick

 

edit:

 

10 keepers is an insane amount...i think 4 is borderline too many in the leagues i am in..

[ryne100]

valpo, 10 keepers is to keep your very good team from becoming a dynasty. Let the other teams have a chance!