Why Suppan?

[Trowekamp]

I know there has been alot of talk about who gets in the rotation between (Vargas, Bush, Capuano, Villy, and Parra) but why has there been not pursuing a Suppan trade. Let's face it the only reason he is guaranteed a starting spot is that fact we are paying him $10million a year for the next 3. However, I think he was a mild disappointment last year. For the money he was a major disappointment but I thought he was overpaid when he signed and this year has not exactly looked like is will live up to the paycheck. However, as a veteran who will give you 200+ innings and world series experience you would think he would have some value for a team like the Rays or Twins that could use some stability in their rotations.

 

If you can remove him from the equation (even if you have to eat a couple of million to do it) you open up another spot and give you self 7 - 10 million the next couple of years to pay the young studs or attempt to re-sign sheets. I don't like trading Cappy when his value is so low or Bush who I think is a perfect #5 pitcher so I would rather see Suppan and Vargas (while he is looking good) go.

 

If you did that you could start the season with:

 

Sheets

Villy

Cappy

Bush

Parra

 

and then Yo is ready you can send Parra down to save innings or demote Cappy or Bush if they haven't picked it up after 3 or 4 starts and you still are covered if a major injury hits.

[1992casey]

Jeff has a full no-trade clause in effect this year. Next year and in 2010, he can block trades to eight clubs of his choice.

[Trowekamp]

Thanks not sure how I missed that...

 

So we overpaid him $3 - $4 million for 1 or 2 years to many and gave him a limited no trade? I understand they didn't have a clear picture of Yo, Villy, and Parra before last year but wow where they a little desperate.

 

Not as big of deal this year but that $10 million would look nice in 2009 and 2010 when Sheets walks out the door and we struggle to sign all the you guys in arbitration.

[logan82]

Well I think most people see Suppan this way. We can't trade him if he doesn't pitch well, and we don't want to if he does.

[adambr2]

The thing is, Suppan really wasn't a disappointment last year. He was exactly who he is every year. Pretty much all of his numbers were at or right near his career averages. Those expecting Suppan to toss out a sub 4.00 ERA in 2008 are probably going to be disappointed again. He's just not that good. He's a so-so starter who will eat up 200+ innings and made a big paycheck off his NLCS performance. Did we overpay? Well, you won't hear me argue against that. If we could unload him and the $25M remaining on his contract after 2008, I'm all for it. There's a handful of teams out there that wouldn't have a problem paying $12.5M a year for 2 years to solidify their rotation. He'd make a hell of a #5 pitcher anywhere. And he is a good pitcher to have in a pennant race as he seems to get stronger as the season goes on. That was definitely the case in '05 and '06, and in '07 to a lesser extent.

 

I think Soup will probably see a slight improvement in his numbers in '08, mostly on the benefit of pitching in front of a better defense. I'd be thrilled with something like 4.15 and a 16-10 record.

[Gopher74]

So we overpaid him $3 - $4 million for 1 or 2 years to many and gave him a limited no trade? I understand they didn't have a clear picture of Yo, Villy, and Parra before last year but wow where they a little desperate.

 

Not as big of deal this year but that $10 million would look nice in 2009 and 2010 when Sheets walks out the door and we struggle to sign all the you guys in arbitration.

Gil Meche got 55 Million dollars over 5 years.

Ted Lilly got 40 Million over 4 years.

Jason Marquis got 21 over 3 years.

 

None of those three had been as good in regards to what the Brewers were looking for at the time, so 4 years and 42 million dollars really isn't overpaying for him. He provided stability to our staff. It was also a bit of a Carlos Delgado deal IMO in that you sign him for a reasonable price for the first two years with a No Trade Clause and then you deal him when his contract starts to increase the last two years.

 

There are plenty of teams that would be willing to take a guy for 12.5 a year that is going to throw 200 Innings every year and give you an ERA in the mid to low 4's. The Mets are one that jumps out at me as they may just want a number 3 next year if they let Perez and Pedro go.

I just don't know why you'd think we were desperate for signing a guy to a pretty standard deal given the market.

 

And finally, we're not going to struggle in the least bit to sign our arby guys next year or the year after. We've go about 35 million dollars coming off our books, and I believe we had a net gain last year of 50 million dollars. The Brewers are doing just fine.

 

It's like some people will complain when you don't sign anyone only to turn around when you do sign someone arguing that he's overpriced.

[Trowekamp]

I agree that in the market his contract was in line with what those other pitchers got. However, in hindsight would you do the deal again?

 

I would say at this point no I would prefer to have the money for the young players as we seem to have plenty of starters would can give us average starts as he will put up. We are not the Yankees, $10 million for a good #5 starter doesn't cut it. However, I think he does have value for a team that needs stability or wants to get a good #5 so I would rather dump him now then take a chance he ends up with a 5.00 era and we can't pay anyone to take him at the end of the year. Unless you are Roger Clemens or Jamie Moyer you don't get better as you get to his age.

[theavrock]

I agree that in the market his contract was in line with what those other pitchers got. However, in hindsight would you do the deal again?

 

At the time yes. Who else would you have had pitch last year? Gallardo would have been on a strict pitch count. Sheets and Capuano both had injuries. The great thing about Suppan is he is durable and dependable. He puts up 200+ innings year in and out. He isn't pretty but he is far from ugly. As some have pointed out on this board his numbers suffered because of crappy defense. He should hopefully have some better luck this year with improved defense. Is his contract huge? Yes, but thats what happens in free agency. For what he gives us in the current free agent market that deal is actually pretty good.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Suppan signing shows the risks you take when you spend big dollars for average production. They overpaid for the peace of mind of having an average pitcher make every start and for the most part keep you in games in the heat of a race. He did that. But now he might not be better than the 6th or 7th best starter so he potentially is blocking someone better. Even worse, his contract makes signing Sheets beyond this year highly unlikely.

 

Baseball economics of today makes for a lesser game in my mind.

 

As to who would you have had pitch last year? Villanueva was set to be the 5th starter before Suppan was signed. They could have then used some of that Suppan money for bullpen help.

 

But that offseason, the injuries to Ohka and Sheets from the year before were fresh in their minds. I posted at the time while I was ok with Suppan, I thought it was never a good idea to use what happened in one season as a basis for all your moves because no two seasons are alike.

[brewjihad]

He isn't pretty but he is far from ugly.

 

That's a nice line.

 

I would still rather have him out there than Bush or Capuano. They're cheaper, of course, but it's not like you can just dump Suppan.

[Trowekamp]

He isn't pretty but he is far from ugly.

 

That's a nice line.

 

I would still rather have him out there than Bush or Capuano. They're cheaper, of course, but it's not like you can just dump Suppan.

Yes but what we are paying Bush, Capuano, and Vargas doesn't equal total what Suppan is getting. No to mention the next 2 years. I will make a prediction that at least 1 of those 3 has a better year than him this year and I think 2 of the 3 will though maybe not with the Brewers.

 

Last Year's rotation would have been:

 

Sheets

Capuano

Bush

Vargas

Villenueva

 

With Parra and Gallardo at AAA to fill in. Also without Villy in the bullpen maybe Thatcher gets called up and we never make the mistake of trading him and also would have been another draft pick last June without the signing.

 

In the interest of full disclosure I was not adamant against it and Suppan did perform up to my expectations as low as they were I just feel he has the more value for some other team than the Brewers and he would free up a spot in the rotation and money in the future if you could get around the not trade.

[DrWood]

Last Year's rotation would have been:

 

Sheets

Capuano

Bush

Vargas

Villenueva

 

With Parra and Gallardo at AAA to fill in. Also without Villy in the bullpen maybe Thatcher gets called up and we never make the mistake of trading him and also would have been another draft pick last June without the signing.

 

.

 

well, we would have been farther behind the cubs with that rotation, and with villy removed from the pen.

[logan82]

I was against the Suppan signing from the start. Not because of anything to do with Suppan, just that you don't get what you pay for in free agency. I dont like free agents in general. Most are the wrong side of 30. You pay for what they did and more than likley will not be as good as they were before they were free agents.

[brewjihad]

I just feel he has the more value for some other team than the Brewers and he would free up a spot in the rotation

 

First of all, Suppan isn't a guy a team would want to pick up unless the Brewers would pick up most of his salary. Which would defeat the point entirely.

 

Second, to 'free up a spot' would likely mean a spot for Bush or Capuano. I think Suppan is just as good as both of them. And if you are eventually going to go with a rotation including Sheets, Gallardo, Villy, and Parra, I think that having an "innings eater" like Suppan isn't a bad deal. All of them except Villy have to be considered injury risks at this point.

[Gopher74]

brewjihad wrote:

 

First of all, Suppan isn't a guy a team would want to pick up unless the Brewers would pick up most of his salary. Which would defeat the point entirely.

 

Second, to 'free up a spot' would likely mean a spot for Bush or Capuano.

I don't think there is any truth to this. I think that Jeff Suppan would be sough after by several teams. Being this late in the game, ie, the seasons about to start, that number would be a bit diminished, but if we were to try to trade him next year, assuming he had a year like he did last year, I don't think we'd have any problem.

 

The Phillies for instance I think would jump at the chance to get him. He's seen as a GB type pitcher, an innings eater and a guy that'll keep you in games. For teams with great offense, but limited defense, that would be a very attractive pitcher. The Texas Rangers, the Mets(especially next year if Pedro and Perez are gone), the Dodgers, the Angels with their pitching right now would gladly take him.

 

I just don't know where this notion that we'd have to eat not only a chunk of his salary, but most of it comes from. Maybe after next year when he's got 2 years and 25 million left on his deal we'd have to eat 2.5 each year and pay the option year or the buyout, but that would be the most we'd likely have to eat.

 

Jeff Suppan's got a lot of value. We got him at what was IMO a decent deal last year given the market. Meche 5/55, Lilly, 4/40, Marquis 3/21(after a 6.00 ERA). Suppan coming off an NLCS MVP and having won seasons of 13, 16, 16 and 12 wins, and ERA's of 4.19, 4.16, 3.57 and 4.12.

 

Now I didnt' really like the deal, but I thought it made our team better.

Second, I don't see how Gallardo is an injury risk? One injury in your career does not make you an injury risk. Not to mention, trading Suppan, which again, is not going to happen since he's got a no-trade clause WOULD free up a spot to go with Sheets, Yo, Parra, Villy, and then one of Vargas, Cappy or Bush, save us 32 million over 3, and give us money to bring Sheets back.

[TheBrewer]

We all knew what we were getting when we signed him. We didn't know back in December of 06' that Villanuva, Parra etc would be legit and competiting for spots. He was signed because of his leadership ability, his vet pressence, the fact he could typically keep you in games, put up 200+ innings etc. What does that pay? Yea 40 million for stability and those intangibles. Its alot of money, but thats what the market pays

[logan82]

We all knew what we were getting when we signed him. We didn't know back in December of 06' that Villanuva, Parra etc would be legit and competiting for spots.

Well to be fair, we thought we might have something in Villanueva.

[Time for a Miller]

We are getting exactly what we thought we would. There was also the intangible of putting the Brewers on the map as contenders. I don't know what effect that had on ticket sales, (it sure raised the price of parking) but it definetly sent a signal from Attanasio that the Brewers were serious about winning. I don't think it was a bad signing since it was a fairly short contract that didn't break the bank. Suppan is also a guy that a lot of teams that are contending would want to have for the stretch run and if the Brewers are floundering I don't think Suppan would veto a trade to a contender. He definetly wouldn't veto a trade if it got him closer to his resteraunt in California. hmmmm cheesestake.

[endaround]

Not sure hoiw overpaying for mediocrity sends a signal about the Brewers being serious about winning. Suppan makes $12 million next season. Yes thats is going to be hard to move.

[Trowekamp]

Not sure hoiw overpaying for mediocrity sends a signal about the Brewers being serious about winning. Suppan makes $12 million next season. Yes thats is going to be hard to move.

This is a more succint way of stating my original argument. I don't think trading Suppan diminishes our ability to win this year with the depth currently there and it enhances the ability to win the next two years by freeing up $30 million in payroll.

 

So if he has a no trade for 8 teams who would that be? Let's say it is:

 

Rays

Rockies

Reds

Rangers

Orioles

Blue Jays

Twins

Pirates

 

Obviously his list is very different but no matter what his list is unless it is all high revenue teams the no trade probably doesn't dramatically impact the ability to move him.

[gregmag]

The Suppan signing shows the risks you take when you spend big dollars for average production. They overpaid for the peace of mind of having an average pitcher make every start and for the most part keep you in games in the heat of a race. He did that. But now he might not be better than the 6th or 7th best starter so he potentially is blocking someone better. Even worse, his contract makes signing Sheets beyond this year highly unlikely.

 

Baseball economics of today makes for a lesser game in my mind.

 

As to who would you have had pitch last year? Villanueva was set to be the 5th starter before Suppan was signed. They could have then used some of that Suppan money for bullpen help.

 

But that offseason, the injuries to Ohka and Sheets from the year before were fresh in their minds. I posted at the time while I was ok with Suppan, I thought it was never a good idea to use what happened in one season as a basis for all your moves because no two seasons are alike.

That's a really, really good analysis. In fairness to the Brewers, you can say that they made a four-year deal, got basically what they wanted out of the first year, and have a great deal of flexibility over the final two years (assuming Suppan doesn't collapse or get hurt this year), because -- as several people have said -- big-budget contenders would happily pay his salary if they needed his skills. So this year is really the one you have to live with, and if he gets slightly better results this year, the deal doesn't look bad at all.

Gopher: I'd say the reason Gallardo is an injury risk is that he's a 22 year-old who will be asked to pitch a full season in the rotation. He hasn't done anything at all to earn the "injury risk" label, but he doesn't have to: pitchers that young, with that kind of workload, just get hurt at alarming rates. The team will need to be careful with him, but the temptation to ride him will be incredibly strong.

Greg.

 

[brewjihad]

Second, I don't see how Gallardo is an injury risk? One injury in your career does not make you an injury risk.

 

Trading Suppan would eventually lead to a rotation of Sheets, Gallardo, Villy, Parra, and Bush or Capuano. I don't necessarilly consider Yovani an "injury risk", but he is only 22 and I heavily doubt anyone in the organization wants him over 200 innings this year. Parra is scheduled for about 160. We all know about Sheets's injury problems.

 

It probably sounds like I'm being pessimistic here about the durability of the rotation. I'm more just trying to illustrate that Suppan does have value to this team this year.

[logan82]

Why would we need to keep Gallardo under 200 innings this year? He pitched somewhere around 180 last year.

[brewjihad]

Mark Prior

Year, Ag, Tm, Lg, W, L, IP

2003 22 CHC NL 18 6 211.3

2004 23 CHC NL 6 4 118.7

2005 24 CHC NL 11 7 166.7

2006 25 CHC NL 1 6 43.7


Now this, of course, is the extreme example.

What I meant in the original post was that he shouldn't be subjected to a crazy, Dusty Baker-style workload that damages him long-term.

[theavrock]

https://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1658 Here is a great article about young pitchers and how young pitchers and injuries are related. Good read for those who are interested.