April projections

[splitterpfj]

By the time April is over, the Brewers will have played 27 games. Mike Cameron will miss most of those games, Yovanni Gallardo seems a safe bet to miss the first half of those games.

 

The home/road splits are basically even, with 13 home games and 14 road games, but those road games include 5 in Chicago, and three in New York. (By the way, whoever decided the Brewers and Cubs should live in Wrigley in April, then play in Milwaukee in late July....should be fired).

 

Twelve of the first eighteen are on the road, which may translate to a slow start this time around. I'd like to hear some April projections, what do you think will happen?

 

April Breakdown...

 

Road Games

5 at Chicago, start the month and end the month

3 at New York

3 at St Louis

3 at Cincinnati

 

Home Games

3 San Francisco

3 Cincinnati

2 St Louis

2 Philadelphia

3 Florida

[GoudaBrew]

5 at Chicago - 2-3

3 at New York - 1-2

3 at St Louis 1-2

3 at Cincinnati 2-1

 

Home Games

3 San Francisco 3-0

3 Cincinnati 2-1

2 St Louis 2-0

2 Philadelphia 1-1

3 Florida 2-1

 

Overall a 16-11 record. Which is pretty solid considering the road trips and the absence of Cameron and Gallardo.

[And That]

I'd be thrilled if we won 15-17+ games. I think that number is doable, though 17 or more may be reaching... on the flip side, if win any fewer than 12 games we'll definitely be off to a slow start.

 

I've gone through the March/April schedule 5 or 6 times now and I keep coming up with either 14 or 15 wins. I'm feeling optimistic... I'll go with 15-12.

[Ennder]

5 at Chicago - 2-3

3 at New York - 1-2 (they will get off to a slow start with all the little injuries so we might sneak in 2 wins)

3 at St Louis 1-2

3 at Cincinnati 2-1 (Baker will be playing the vets so they won't be as good as they should)

 

Home Games

3 San Francisco 2-1

3 Cincinnati 2-1

2 St Louis 1-1

2 Philadelphia 1-1

3 Florida 2-1

 

14-13

 

To be actually comfortable with those projections I'd have to see the pitching matchups though.

[Tbadder]

Chicago 2-3

New York 2-1

St. Louis 2-1

Cincy 0-3

 

San Fran 3-0

Cincy 1-2

St. Louis 1-1

Philly 1-1

Florida 2-1

 

14-13

 

A pretty good start I'd say, except the thorn in our side that will be the Reds

[rluzinski]

Considering the relatively difficult starting schedule and the fact that the Brewers are maybe an 87-88 win team with Cameron and Yo, my gut tells me to be happy with anything above .500. Without doing the math, I'll say 13-14 and mass hysteria at bf.net.

[dadofandrew]

A 90 win pace would be 15 wins, so I'd say the over under would probably be set at either 14 or 14.5.

[Menotti80]

I gave up predictions as a part of my brewer pledges or whatever from the off season. As much as I want to say what I think and go through it game by game, I just can't. What I will say though is that I think much closer to Russ than to FIB4...

 

Gosh this is hard...

[Menotti80]

Just wanted to give at update now that we are 2/3 done with april. and i needed something to make myself feel better after that awful game yesterday

 

the highest prediction was fib4brew with a 16-11 prediction. right now, the crew is 11-7. a 4-3 homestand and a split against the cubs in the first 2 games of that series = 16-11, which i think would make most people here pretty happy. i think that 1 5-4 record to close out april is a worse case scenario, considering 7 or the 9 are at home...

 

cheer up people! and here's to a homestand that breaks several brewers out of theuir slumps!

[rluzinski]

I generally agree, although the Brewers could easily finish up 3-6. Anything can happen over such a small period. Even a 4-5 finish results in a nice April record, though, so I'm very happy with whee the Brewers are right now, record-wise.

[RyDogg66]

I cant see how anyone can complain with the teams record the way they have hit so far. Even in the games Gagne has blown the save in we are 2-1. If/When Braun and Fielder heat up, and when/if Weeks peaks his head above .200 the team has the potential to really take off.

 

Plus it was nice to keep up with the Cards and Cubs considering those two teams have played slightly easier schedules thus far.

[GoudaBrew]

Well if the Brewers take the first 2 games in this series they will have met or surpassed all of our expectations. Considering how bad our offense has been from top to bottom and how well the Cubs have played thus far, being in a tie with the Cubs for the division lead at the end of April would be awesome (of course the Cards might have something to say about that too).

[theavrock]

I agree. Is it just me or do other people out there think the Cubs are playing over their heads right now. Pretty much every starting position player, save Ramirez, is hitting well above .300. The majority of their pitching staff has been very good. I just can't fathom guys like Ryan Theirot, Reed Johnson and Soto keeping up this pace. Maybe its just me and my disdain for the Chubs, but I feel they are playing way over their heads.

[Oldcity]

Fukudome is hitting like a HOFer right now. He's good, but I don't expect that to continue.

 

Unfortunately, I think Derek Lee's April is legit, as the last couple years he was hampered by that wrist injury.

[Ennder]

Derreck Lee has faced pitchers with an OPS against of .758 so far. Fielder has faced pitchers with an OPS against of .675 so far.

 

The Cubs OPS is .810 right now, the Brewers is .697. So if you want to use an OPS+ type of stat the Cubs have hit .052 above average and the Brewers .022 above average. That math isn't perfect of course since it doesn't remove the Brewer/Cub stats out of the OPS against but it does show that the two teams offenses are closer together than they look. The Cubs have faced pitching that has struggled/been average against every team, the Brewers have faced pitching that has been very good against every team (remove the Brewers from that .675 OPS against and it is even lower).

[splitterpfj]

If the Brewers had won one more game on this last homestand, I would be thrilled. As it is, I can't knock their current position, they played a tough schedule, short-handed, and they're right in the mix.

[Oldcity]

Ennder, can I ask how you were able to find that information? That's good stuff.

[Ennder]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=320582

 

not sure if that is free content or not so that link might just ask you for a password.

[Oldcity]

Great, thanks.