St Louis signs Kyle Lohse

[splitterpfj]

He's finally found a home...so much for the 4 or 5 year deal he was demanding in December.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3291978

[JoeHova]

The lack of interest in Lohse may bode poorly for the return the Brewers would get for dealing a mediocre pitcher or two.

[Ennder]

Good news that a team we had no chance to trade with got him.

[SoCalBrewfan]

The lack of interest in Lohse may bode poorly for the return the Brewers would get for dealing a mediocre pitcher or two.

 

Certainly the market for league-average starters has looked different this year. But Lohse being signed for real money is good news if you're hoping for a good return in a possible SP trade...as the 'free' options diminish, and as in-house options either stick up the spring complex or break down physically, a guy like Capuano or Bush becomes increasingly appealing. Before Lohse signed, a GM could rightly think, why give up a prospect when I could just pay a few more dollars and get a similar pitcher in Lohse for a year. Now the best veteran FA pitcher is, who, Jeff Weaver? Freddy Garcia?

[rluzinski]

The thing is, Lohse isn't even mediocre. He has a career ERA of 4.83 and his ZiPS projection for 2008 puts him at a 4.78. I would probably want Bush and if I was certain he was healthy, Capuano. Of course, Lohse thinking he was going to get a long term deal was probably just wishful thinking to begin with.

[Madtown Bomber]

I think baseball was waiting for Lohse to sign so that they can now make a market for guys like Vargas, Bush, Cappy.

 

I think Vargas is pitching himself into a pitching spot on the club this spring.

[Gopher74]

I think this could end up being a great signing for the Cardinals. Lohse has a very good, very live arm and some very good pure stuff. I'm a bit concerned seeing him team with Duncan, and knowing the Cards history of the taking pitchers with this history, a history that up to this point is better than Suppan's was, or Carpenters was, and being very successful with them.

 

I could see Lohse have a bit of a resurgence and posting an ERA in the low 4.00's over 200 or so innings for them. He reminds me in some ways of Gil Meche. His stuff isn't as good obviously, but I think he could end up being the steal of the FA market from this past year.

[JoeHova]

Ok, I've been thinking about this. Does this signing help or hurt the value of Capuano, Vargas, and Bush?

 

On the one hand, teams were only willing to pay 4+ million for a year of a guy whose career performance has been about league average for a starter. Vargas has been slightly worse over his career, Bush and Capuano slightly better. All are approximately the same age- late 20s, so forecasting a breakout for any of them would likely be wishful thinking. Getting Bush, Capuano or Vargas would cost players in addition to money.

 

On the other hand, now there is one less (roughly) league average starter available.

 

I don't know. I can see how Lohse's signing affects the supply of pitchers, but what I don't get is why demand would suddenly sky-rocket when the cost of any of the 3 Brewers will likely be higher (when accounting for salary plus the player(s) traded away) than the price was for Lohse. It seems we are counting on a couple injuries to occur in order to goose the market.

[DrWood]

Lohse's contract is above any of the brewer pitchers in question, particularly considering the bonuses for performance and being traded. He could end up having a very good year in STL. I could see him winning 15 games and having a sub 4.00 ERA (there, that should irritate all those guys that think wins and ERA don't matter!)

[Tbadder]

I don't like the signing one bit. If they can turn Wainwright around they can turn this guy around. He's got very good stuff. Duncan scares the bajeebers outta me.

[JohnBriggs12]

There is very little value for the starters the Brewers are shopping. Most teams either have guys with similar numbers already competing for rotation spots or young guys with some promise who cost quite a bit less. I still expect that some team will take at least one guy, but for nothing more than a body in the low minors. If Melvin's holding out for more, he's going to wait a long time.

[bigredrobbo]

I'm not worried about the Cards. This signing just means they might not finish last.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I don't know that we'll get a lot, but a team like Boston is smart enough to recognize that one of our starters would look a lot better with a good D behind them. Also, a good portion of the value of a guy like Lohse or Bush is the innings...for a team like Boston or Philly, there's real value in certainty and mediocrity, in terms of a guy who can put up 180 innings of league-average pitching and give the offense a chance to win games. Capuano is less certain in some ways because he was hurt last year...Vargas has a history of not working a lot of innings.

 

It does seem that Melvin, and many of the posters here (myself included), misjudged the market for pitching, though. (Though a final determination on that question may have to wait a few weeks.) For the three vets in question, their numbers from last year are not pretty, but I would imagine that GMs recognize the impact of the Brewers' defense on those numbers at least to some extent. And terrible numbers didn't stop a guy like Jason Marquis from getting a guaranteed deal. Based on recent offseasons, a guy like Lohse had reason to believe he could get 3-4 years and many millions per year. Indeed, Silva, who is not a lot different from Lohse in terms of overall track record, did get that kind of deal. I would have guessed, and still would guess for that matter, that a one-year commitment to Capuano or Bush would be appealing to a good team given the free agent market, but it seems that the market has changed.

 

In some ways I don't think it's a reflection on the pitchers as much as it is a matter of two other factors. First, the value of prospects and pre-arby major leaguers has gone through the roof. That's especially true for small market teams, but even teams like Boston, New York, and the Los Angeles teams are holding their prospects close. As salaries have gone up and up, the 0-3 guys are a better and better bargain, and teams seem less reluctant to play kids ahead of mediocre vets. When there are comparable free agents available, as with Lohse, an increasing number of GMs are not willing to give up talent for veterans. The other factor is Melvin's unwillingness to settle for less than he thinks his players are worth. He doesn't seem to want to sell low, which might be wise or stubborn or both.

[Gopher74]

I still expect that some team will take at least one guy, but for nothing more than a body in the low minors. If Melvin's holding out for more, he's going to wait a long time.

I would think that Doug Melvin who's done this for a career and has done it quite well in two stops has a much better grasp of what he'll get than you do quite honestly.

 

 

 

[Gopher74]

It does seem that Melvin, and many of the posters here (myself included), misjudged the market for pitching, though. (Though a final determination on that question may have to wait a few weeks.)

I don't know about that, I think that Melvin was always pretty up front about the fact that he believed that the value for starting pitching was much greater during the season, and position players much greater in the off-season. I think if anything that suggests that the Brewers always had it in the back of their heads that if they didn't get a deal that was acceptable that they would just keep that trio, go into the season with them and wait for someone to lose a starter to injury thus raising that price again.

 

I mean, every year they talk about the value of pitchers at the all-star break and how teams are going after pitchers worse than what we've got and offering decent packages. The only question is are the Brewers going to be patient enough, or is it going to take until the trade deadline for that value to be there?

 

[danzig6767]

I think Loshe only got one year because GM's finally learned their lesson a bit after all those offseasons where they gave big money deals to pitchers who just weren't worth the risk of living up to the contract they received. Giving out these 3-4-5 year deals to the Jeff Weaver, Eric Milton, and Odalis Perez types and getting burned because of it.