Pecota questions

[bbrauch2000]

Do these projections generally come out pretty conservative? I'm prepping for a fantasy draft going through some of their projections and none of the players under 27 seem to be projected to even meet their previous seasons averages, much less progress

[decktard]

The projections are on the conservative side I believe. I've used PECOTA for a couple drafts so far and here are some of the keys:

 

1. Make sure you look at the projected PAs. Sometimes they're on the low side. If you think a player is going to play all year then change the projections for your projected ABs. This may be one of the big reasons that young players are low because PECOTA will list a low number for plate appearances.

2. Take a look at the forecast. It will have a list of the odds of that player performing to certain levels.

3. Take a look at the breakout, improve, and collapse rates. That may give you an idea as to what their projections mean. A projection might be on the conservative side but their odds of breaking out or even improving could help you pick players who are on their way up.

[rluzinski]

Projections are regressed to the mean, since true talent is going to be closer to average than the actual performance you are going to see in 162 games. If you take the 10 highest or lowest for any stat in any year and see how those guys did the year after, they're performance is going to collectively be closer to average. BA, HR, strikeouts, whatever. Take a young player who had a breakout year in 2007 and most of them are going to do worse for 2008. That's all a "sophmore slump" really is.