Bush vs. Capuano for 2008

[Fear The Chorizo]

Bush is probably a different pitcher from the stretch because he can't really vary his delivery to the plate with runners on base...his wind-up is unique because he is somewhat deliberate with his leg kick and throws hitters' timing off by using that to compliment his stuff. I think he commands his pitches better from the windup, too - especially his breaking ball. Once he's in the stretch, he has to rely more on his stuff without any deception in his delivery...since his stuff isn't overpowering, i think he's going to get hit harder when he can't use his windup to gain an additional advantage. His 1st inning problems may be a combination of him facing the opposition's best hitters and pitching from the stretch if runners are on base for the meat of an order. Regarding Bush's closer status in college, does anyone know whether he threw primarily from the windup, or was he always in the stretch like most mlb relievers? I think Milwaukee may need to make a trade/personnel decision with their pitching sooner than the end of camp - we're rapidly approaching a point in spring training games where not all of the starting pitchers are going to be able to get enough work in the games to get stretched out...the key Brewer relievers are already having to throw in B games and batting practice to get enough work in.

[TooLiveBrew]

His 1st inning problems may be a combination of him facing the opposition's best hitters and pitching from the stretch if runners are on base for the meat of an order.

 

I hadn't thought of that. I'm not good with numbers, but I wonder if there's something to that.

[Tbadder]

I rate them Bush, Vargas, and Cappy a distant 3rd. To me, Cappy's problems go deeper than mere ability (which is limited and certainly less than the other two) I just think his head is screwed on wrong. Losing takes such a toll on people and I don't think there's anyway to escape it. Now, I'm a distant observer and could be completely wrong--so be it, I'm glad to be wrong here.

 

The problem is, I have no real faith in any of them. Back of the rotation guys don't excite me at all, and really good teams do whatever they can to avoid using these type of pitchers. Whatever the Brewers can do to fix this I think needs to be done--it's our number one problem. Of course one of the solutions is that Bush overcomes his men-on-base syndrome. That appears to be the easiest fix among the three and the main reason I'd have him in the rotation.

 

Of course it might be an interesting experiment to put Bush in the pen. For instance, what would happen if his men-on-base problem was resolved or significantly improved? What would that say about mindsets, etc.?

[TerraceReserved]

I rate them Bush, Vargas, and Cappy a distant 3rd. To me, Cappy's problems go deeper than mere ability (which is limited and certainly less than the other two) I just think his head is screwed on wrong. Losing takes such a toll on people and I don't think there's anyway to escape it. Now, I'm a distant observer and could be completely wrong--so be it, I'm glad to be wrong here.

So his head is screwed on wrong becuase he had bad run support?

[FVBrewerFan]

I think it's all about location for Cappy. Could he use another pitch? Sure, a lot of pitchers could. But he has never had dominating stuff, yet he was able to get people out on a consistent basis before last year. Would he accept reassignment to the minors and put in a few extra starts to work out some things?

 

As far as Bush.Vargas goes, I may be the only one to choose Vargas. Bush is a bull dog type everyone loves. But we know what we'll get. 5-6 innings giving up 3 runs or so. Vargas has at least had games where he was almost dominating. I just see more of an upside, and I would rather have a guy like that as the #5.

 

What I'm curious about is how they use Gallardo, Parra, and Villy. How do you limit innings, yet get these guys in the rotation as often as possible? Becaue when you cut through it all, Parra and Villy are better choices in the rotation than Cappy, Bush, or Vargas.

[Tbadder]

Yes, because he had bad run support. After awhile it doesn't matter how you lose--only that you keep losing--just ask the Bucks. That messes with your head and after awhile you stop believing. If you stop believing you're dead in professional athletics.

[lukevan]

Capuano still believes he can pitch. Hell, he pitched pretty damn well yesterday. Obviously we'd like to see him be consistently good, but he is still able. Athletes often go through struggles and come back to put up excellent seasons. I'm not saying Cappy should be in the rotation, but he has just as good a shot as Bush IMO.

 

Amazing how we've gone from proclaiming Capuano as our ace to calling for him to be DFA'd in 2 short years.

[Tbadder]

I just really believe he should be in the bullpen and maybe by the grace of god he works out his problems. I hope so because when he's on he kills the Cubs.

[joepepsi]

Bush's BB and HR rates were up slightly last year, but otherwise he was almost no different than the previous season. He still has a low walk rate and an excellent K:BB ratio...better than 3:1 in 2007. While I realize Quality Start is a somewhat dubious stat, it is relevant to note that 16 of his 31 starts qualify as QS, while only 9 of Vargas' 23 starts were QS. Also, Vargas had only one game where he lasted beyond the 6th inning. Bush had 10. Of the three, Bush, Vargas, and Cappy, there's more to like about Bush's potential. He has the peripherals to be a solid 2-3 rotation pitcher and a career that surpasses Suppan. If there's only one spot left in the rotation for these three, I'm leaning toward giving it to Bush. I think Capuano is going to be traded.

 

Fear the Chorizo, I have no idea if your analysis is correct, but it sure seems to make a lot of sense! Thanks for that. Good work.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yes, because he had bad run support. After awhile it doesn't matter how you lose--only that you keep losing--just ask the Bucks.

 

Interesting that you point to a team as your example while using team stats to evaluate an individual pitcher.

[Tbadder]

Interesting indeed since there is absolutely no correlation between what individuals do and what groups of individuals do.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think Bush's problem is when he's off, he misses in the zone. Many times this happens early in games when he hasn't settled in or late in games when he gets a little tired.

Generally in between, he's pretty good.

 

Capuano is different. He has a delivery that's a little funky to the hitter's eye. That often helps him the first time or two through the order and he gets a false sense of security. By the second or third time up. the hitters adjust, then he has trouble countering them because he lacks confidence in a third pitch and he's forced to either nibble with his two main pitches or get hit hard.

[TooLiveBrew]

Interesting indeed since there is absolutely no correlation between what individuals do and what groups of individuals do.

 

That was precisely my point. You're using team results to establish that Cappy's suddenly caught 'the losing gene.'

[Tbadder]

To say that groups of individuals do not at times resemble or emulate individuals themselves borders on something, something. While not true every time, the correlation simply can't be dismissed, especially when dealing in an area as broad and complex as pyschology.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm going to go out on a limb and believe that Cappy's 2007 had to do with bad luck & poor support (run & bullpen) much moreso than his inner demons.

 

 

Did you just completely contradict yourself, or was this sarcasm?

 

Interesting indeed since there is absolutely no correlation between what individuals do and what groups of individuals do.

[gregmag]

Joepepsi made the point about Vargas that takes him out of the running for me -- the guy simply can't keep his pitch counts at a level where he doesn't shred the bullpen. A good #5 starter (as opposed to a good starter whom a team is fortunate enough to have as its fifth option) burns some innings at a level that gives his team at least a chance to win. Even last year, and despite the W-L results, I'd say both Cappy and Bush did that better than Vargas.

 

As for Cappy vs. Bush, people have made good points both ways; in the end, I don't think the choice matters much. Our leading rotation options include a guy who somehow gets hurt every year, a 22 year-old who probably shouldn't pitch 200 innings and will start the season on the DL, another young guy who has never started for a full season, and yet another young guy whose health record before last year was deadly. Then you have Suppan, who would be in this thread's conversation if he didn't make so much money, and then you have the guys in this thread's conversation. If there's a way to keep seven of these starters around -- Parra in AAA, Villy in the pen until the first body falls, whatever -- I'd do it.

 

BTW, I've been away, so maybe 20 people have said this already, but isn't there a sense in which Yo's knee injury is a great thing? Obviously I'm sorry for his pain and wish him a fast recovery, but his arm is fragile gold; an injury to any other part of his body that just requires some time to heal obviates the temptation to overuse him.

 

Greg.

[endaround]

Seriously, take Suppan, Bush, Capuano, and Villeneuva and any of those 4 could have a great year. There just isn't that much difference between the four that random variations are going to outweigh everything else (assuming all are healthy).

[joepepsi]

Great post gregmag1. There is every reason to hold onto at least 7 of these guys. As much as I want Carlos V. to win a spot and do well, there isn't much to suggest he will be a better pitcher that Bush or Capuano. Also it seems to me Vargas will have more value sticking with the team all year than in a trade.