Tony Gwynn: good chance to be opening day starter

[Fatter than Joey]

And who said anything about Gwynn being a gold glover?

 

I don't think endaround meant JB12 said Gwynn is a gold glover, but this quote was in this thread....

 

"How about Gold Glove caliber defense? He's a fantastic defender. "

 

There seems to be a perception that because Gwynn is fast and can't hit the ball out of the IF from the pitcher's mound that he must be a:

 

1.) Great Basestealer

2.) Great Contact Hitter

3.) Has Plate Discipline

4.) Gold Glove defender

 

When in fact none of these are true at this point in TGJ's career.

 

TGJ is nothing more than a competent 4th/5th OFer. If any team sees him as a starting CFer, he should be traded to that team immediately.

 

I do think the idea of moving Braun to CF eventually (after he cuts his teeth in LF) is an interesting proposition though, I guess I would put the best arm of Hart/Braun in RF, and be content with the other in CF -- assuming Braun isn't a disaster in LF.

[lukevan]

I wouldn't be surprised it there was a bit of a reluctance to move Hart around.

 

Me niether. Melvin already thinks they are "over-moving" their players.

 

Still can't we let Gross play CF? I don't think Hart and Braun will have that much trouble covering gaps, both have plus speed and Gross, while he had a couple of head-scratchers last season, isn't bad defensively at all IMO. I would give Gwynn some starts in CF but I'd have Gross out there at least 2/3 of the time.

[RightFieldCoder]

it's not the worst thing in the world for me to see Gwynn starting vs Right Handed hitters. He did play very well early last year, and he looks thicker this year.

Since the only thing Gwynn does well is run, I'm not to excited to hear that he looks thicker.

[rluzinski]

Gwynn makes more consistent contact than Gross.

 

Ignoring the fact that simply making contact with a ball that results in it being put into play has little value in itself, let's look at the ZiPS projections for both players.

 

Gross: 333 AB, 60 K, 5.6 AB/K

Gwynn: 439 AB, 77 K, 5.7 AB/K

 

The difference is even worth noting. I know that we are just supposed to assume that every fast, skinny player must put a lot of balls in play but for Gwynn, it's a bad assumption. This has been pointed out many times on this messageboard.

[olliegjw]

I wouldn't be surprised it there was a bit of a reluctance to move Hart around.

 

Me niether. Melvin already thinks they are "over-moving" their players.

 

Still can't we let Gross play CF? I don't think Hart and Braun will have that much trouble covering gaps, both have plus speed and Gross, while he had a couple of head-scratchers last season, isn't bad defensively at all IMO. I would give Gwynn some starts in CF but I'd have Gross out there at least 2/3 of the time.

I think I just puked a little when thinking about Gross in CF. He is horrible on defense. Put him in CF next to Braun, and the Brewers would give up a ton of extra hits and runs.

[LUKE232323]

I'm not a big fan of either Gross or Gwynn, however, I think OBP should be a more important stat when comparing who should be getting the bulk of the AB's while Cameron is out. I think we all agree Gwynn is a better defender than Gross, even if Gwynn is not a stud defender like some say. Who is going to get on base more between Gross and Gwynn? Given the amount of power this team has (I believe it has 7 20+ HR hitters in the lineup, that would leave 6 even when Cameron is not playing), I think the guy that gets on base more would maybe be more advantageous offensively.

 

The question is, who is that guy? Career wise, Gross is at .343 and Gwynn is at .307, although Gwynn's AB sample is smaller. How close will these two be this year with regards to OBP? I believe if they are close or equal, Gwynn might bring more because of the upgraded D and the power in the lineup.

 

Thankfully we only have to deal with this debate for 25 games.

[endaround]

Thank god there are projections! And lots of them!

 

Gross:

Bill James .364

CHONE .347

Marcel .348

MINER .338

ZiPS .358

 

Gwynn:

Bill James .329

CHONE .320

Marcel .331

MINER .297

ZiPS .325

[TooLiveBrew]

I think I just puked a little when thinking about Gross in CF. He is horrible on defense.

 

What on earth is this based upon?

[DrWood]

I have the hunch that gwynn, gross, and kapler are all going to be on the OD roster, and crazy joe will be in Nashville or another team. I hope that's not how it happens, but that's my hunch.

[olliegjw]

I think I just puked a little when thinking about Gross in CF. He is horrible on defense.

 

What on earth is this based upon?

Personal observation. He butchered a number of ball in RF last year in limited chances. Moving to CF doesn't make things any easier.

[olliegjw]

Thank god there are projections! And lots of them!

 

Gross:

Bill James .364

CHONE .347

Marcel .348

MINER .338

ZiPS .358

 

Gwynn:

Bill James .329

CHONE .320

Marcel .331

MINER .297

ZiPS .325

 

So that equates to approximately 2-3 extra times on base for Gross over 100 at-bats (which is about what they'd get in 25 games). I believe that Gwynn would save at least 3 extra hits over the same span with his defense, probably more. Of course, this doesn't take into effect slugging which would obviously favor Gross. I would still rather have Gwynn be the fill-in starter with his defense, and have Gross's bat as a late inning PH.

[Big Reed]

I' m not thrilled with either gwynn or gross. but they are what we have. if these guys are that bad, we should have gone after lofton or PODZ more agressively.

 

or we could still sign Piazza and put kendall in Cf.

 

or can't we follow a larussa strategy and put one of the middle relievers in the outfield?

 

i heard brian roberts and Coco crisp are available. Both can play CF.

[DrWood]

how about Gross as the starter, and Gwynn as the defensive replacement?

[MillerParkSouth]

no matter what, this is not going to be anybody's idea of an optimal solution. as much as it pains me to say it (i love gross and pretty much think gwynn should be gone), i think gwynn should probably get the majority of the ABs. he's probably a slightly better defender than gross, which i think is important with braun out there. gross' bat would be good to have on the bench too.

i'll echo the sentiment that i'm worried that kapler has somehow gritted and battled his way onto the roster instead of crazy joe dillon. i haven't heard his name ONCE this spring training!

[1992casey]

We need the SLG pct. projections. I'm sure there'll be a very visible separation there.

[rluzinski]

I think Gwynn is most likely a very good defender, significantly better than Gross. I just don't like assuming his gold glove material without much evidence, is all. The real question is whether Gwynn's superior defense is going to compensate for their difference in offensive value. ZiPS projections for both (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS):

Gabe Gross . 264/.358/.426/.784
Anthony Gwynn .260/.325/.328/.653

I value defense more than the average guy but that's a huge difference. I'd be very surprised is Gwynn's defense and prowess on the basepaths could make up the difference.

My preference would be to have Hart play CF until Cameron comes back (I think he's more than adequate there). Then use a Gross/Dillon platoon in RF and DFA Kapler. Use Gwynn as a defensive replacment/pinch runner whenever possible.

[TooLiveBrew]

Personal observation. He butchered a number of ball in RF last year in limited chances. Moving to CF doesn't make things any easier.

 

I just don't think Gross is any real downgrade in the OF. He's a fluid athlete with a strong arm, and he's comfortable in the OF. Is he a top-tier defender? No. But he's certainly not some butcher. Besides, Hart is more than capable of playing any of the 3 OF spots.

[rluzinski]

He butchered a number of ball in RF last year in limited chances. Moving to CF doesn't make things any easier.

 

He embarrassed himself on 2 or 3 plays last year. That is 100% true. Trying to use 2 or 3 very good or very bad plays to judge the overall defensive talent level of a player is a very bad idea, however. Throwing out my own personal observation (which isn't worth anymore than anyone elses) but based on everything I've seen of him, I'd put him a little above average in the corner and a little below average in CF.

[Tbadder]

If Hart is so capable of playing centerfield then why sign Cameron? Serious question, not trying to start any thing. Why hang on to a guy like Gywnn who is easily the worst hitting outfielder they possess? If everyone here knows how much better Gross is then why all the debate? (okay trying to start something with this last statement, but nothing else).

[1992casey]

If Cameron wasn't signed and Hart was depended upon to play center, the Brewers wouldn't have the personnel to adequately man right field over the course of the season.

 

Looking for a corner outfielder was an off season option, but those guys didn't seem to be available. I'm not saying one option or the other would have necessarily been better. The Brewers needed to do either/or, though.

 

You keep Gwynn in the organization because he has an option left, has a skillset that can complement the current players on the roster, and if nothing else, can play center for the Sounds.

[theavrock]

"Personal observation. He butchered a number of ball in RF last year in limited chances. Moving to CF doesn't make things any easier."

 

And he made a couple of great plays as well. I don't remember what game it was but he threw a laser to home from deep right field to nail a guy trying to score. It's ridiculous to judge a guy's skill set based on 2 plays. Gwynn is the better defender but not by a huge margin, same thing with baserunning. Gwynn is better but not by much. Gross is a great baserunner. The big difference between the two, IMO, is the OBP skills. Gross has a good advantage over Gwynn. If he can't hit for power he should make up for that by getting on base at a decent clip, which he does not. We don't need more mashers in our lineup but we need guys to be on base for Prince, Braun, Corey etc. I think that fact coupled with the facts that Gwynn's advantages over Gross are only slight makes Gross the better option.