Is Rickie's Production A Concern?

[afeter]

updated stat line through 3-17-08

 

abs = 40

hits = 5

bbs = 3

ks = 20

 

- I mentioned that i was concerned after 23 abs. I hinted at why. After the way he finished in 2007, I am sure many of us think he can have a great 2008. For rickie to have a huge season, like all-star or in the top tier of offensive second basemen, i feel it is critical for him to come out hot. He has never started well in the majors. If he got out to a 10-25 start i bet it would do wonders for his confidence. Sample size sample size sample size, that is all i read here. tell that to a major leaguer who is hitting .125 with a 50 percent K rate. 5 hits. I'll buy the spring training argument to explain some of this futility away, but i can't wear the sample size blinders that most of you have on here. This is scary, i hope he can find a way to build some confidence before the season starts. I still believe he is capable of having a great season, but he had better start to get it going.

[TooLiveBrew]

So you're provided a totally legitimate & logical answer as to why he's "struggling", yet you still seek out this doom & gloom? It seems almost like you just want to go on about this regardless.

[1992casey]

Where's that rant thread?

Unlike a couple months ago, the Designated Threads List is now very much up to date and includes the new 2008 Vent Thread.

[afeter]

So you're provided a totally legitimate & logical answer as to why he's "struggling", yet you still seek out this doom & gloom? It seems almost like you just want to go on about this regardless.

i said I buy the spring training argument -- only in part. The original intent of the thread was to generate opinions on whether or not his start was concerning. (I think, for the most part, it was successful returning these ideas) I updated the thread with current numbers and re-posted my worries. I go only to say that i think that rickies start to the season will be a huge factor in how his '08 numbers shake out.

 

 

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Right, you re-posted while remaining totally oblivious to the report that's he's been working on taking as many pitches as possible... which is inherently going to lead to fewer hits & more Ks. What's your concern? If you have a serious concern about Rickie's D, and point to how horrid that has been so far this ST, I certainly can't begrudge you that - it's not like Rickie's been working on biffing as many balls as he can! But to fret that he hasn't been hitting... when his approach has basically been to work on things at the plate excluding hitting... seems like unnecessary worrying to me.

 

 

The original intent of the thread was to generate opinions on whether or not his start was concerning. (I think, for the most part, it was successful returning these ideas)

 

I agree with you here.

[rluzinski]

but i can't wear the sample size blinders that most of you have on here.

 

You are just disagreeing with us because you don't like our answer, not because you (as far as I can tell) know anything about sample statistics. But hey, if the "sample size" mantra is just used by those who can't handle the harsh realities that the Brewers' spring training is bringing to light, perhaps I can be converted:

 

Counsell: 31 AB, .484 BA, .556 OBP .710 SLG

 

Counsell just must be playing with so much confidence right now that I think it's obvious it's going to carry over to the regular season. The Brewers better find a starting spot for the guy or it won't be long before he's demanding a trade. If Fielder can't improve on his current .389 SLG, maybe we can slide Counsell over there to start the season?

 

Have I shed those ignorance inducing sample size blinders yet? Have I seen the light?

[TooLiveBrew]

rluz, now you're just cherry-picking. You conveniently neglect to mention that Craig's new batting stance has obviously made its mark. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[endaround]

Narveson has a 0.75 ERA! The fact he hasn't been given a rotation spot yet is utterly stupid!

[Tbadder]

The thing is, I'd take Rickie's line last year every year. But I really do believe he's going to get better. I listened to the Dennis Krause interview the other day, and I really like his thoughtful, methodical approach to improving and knowing his limitations. I think he'll add a little bit onto his BA, nothing great. I think he'll be right around the same OBP, but I think we could see a more significant improvement in SLG.

 

It seems to me that Rickie always gets one really good hack in there. If he can increase that to two really good hacks and it doesn't affect his OBP he could post some dazzling numbers for a 2nd baseman--a kind of Chase Utley Junior. I can also buy that he doesn't improve all that much. Fine with me.

 

I would hope that the defense comes around. He really is very much below average, and has to try a every possible approach to improve.

[afeter]

rulz, I am trying to think outside the box by catching a trend before it becomes,..you know, a statiscallly measurable trend. If this makes it a little easier to understand: These numbers and my "baseball knowledge" (ala ncaa selection commitee) tell me to be a little worried about rickie.

[logan82]

Maybe Counsell should start at 2B instead of Weeks.

[afeter]

see that's not funny.

[TooLiveBrew]

But you're inviting this all by utilizing your selective 'baseball knowledge.' Being provided with a logical, plausible explanation hasn't done anything for you, so obviously nothing will. Just go on worrying.

[Gobias Industries]

TooLiveBrew[/b]]Right, you re-posted while remaining totally oblivious to the report that's he's been working on taking as many pitches as possible... which is inherently going to lead to fewer hits & more Ks. What's your concern?

That report eased my mind a little bit that his struggle was not really a struggle but more of a training tool for him to get ready for the season. Watching the game yesterday though, I'm not so sure.

 

Felix got ahead of him in the first at-bat and then drilled him in the elbow on 0-2. Putting the result aside, I think it's safe to say that the at-bat wasn't going in a positive direction The second at bat started off 1-0, fouled off the second pitch, and missed the third and fourth by a mile. I didn't even watch the third at bat but it says it ended in yet another K. He was taking the pitches right down the middle and swinging at the stuff out of the zone from what I saw.

 

 

 

[fondybrewfan]

Seems to me Weeks is just a little messed up in the head. He seems to get screwed up very easily both in his approach and on defense and it takes him a long time to fgure it out. Until he figures out how to consistently have the same approach at the plate and consistently concentrates while playing defense I am afraid we are going to see a lot of these types os stretches. He is just completely out of whack right now and has no idea what is going on. Its pretty ugle, I still hope something clicks in that head of his though, and hopefully the lights stays on for more than 2 weeks at a time

[afeter]

But you're inviting this all by utilizing your selective 'baseball knowledge.' Being provided with a logical, plausible explanation hasn't done anything for you, so obviously nothing will. Just go on worrying.

ok, for now i will. --- i ll touch on your underlined word to say that the definition of "baseball knowledge" i was using is this exact opposite of selective. by the way for this thread, please offer your opinion and basis for it, no need to take shots or convince people otherwise that you are right.

[Gobias Industries]

rluzinski[/b]]Counsell: 31 AB, .484 BA, .556 OBP .710 SLG

I respect your baseball opinion GREATLY rluz, but we know what Counsell is. He's obvously in somewhat of a groove and has obviously gotten very lucky in his very limited at-bats this Spring.

 

The thing with Weeks though is that he isn't getting unlucky because hits are just not falling in for him. (Maybe one or two balls he actually put in play could have went the other way) His timing is way off and he looks eerily similar to Rickie Weeks circa July 2007. If he doesn't show some life before opening day, I can't help but be worried. Of course he's not gonna hit .120 over a full season. But because of injuries, we really don't know what we have in Weeks. With the drastic peaks and valleys he has had as a major leaguer, I have no idea what to expect.

 

[rluzinski]

rulz, I am trying to think outside the box by catching a trend before it becomes,..you know, a statiscallly measurable trend.

 

Well, I'm not contending that I'm 100% sure Weeks is perfectly fine. If he's hurt, I wouldn't know. My contention is simply that on the balance, 40 spring training ABs does a very poor job of representing a player's true skill. Craig friggin' Counsell has a 1.266 OPS!!!!

[TooLiveBrew]

I respect your baseball opinion GREATLY rluz, but we know what Counsell is. He's obvously in somewhat of a groove and has obviously gotten very lucky in his very limited at-bats this Spring.

 

That was his point. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

i ll touch on your underlined word to say that the definition of "baseball knowledge" i was using in this exact opposite of selective. by the way, please offer your opinion and basis for it, no need to take shots or convince people otherwise that you are right.

But by definition it's been selective - you know Rickie's been deliberately doing one specific thing this spring that's going to lead to a lot of outs & Ks, but then you're worrying that it's a sign to heed moving forward... as though it wasn't his intention, when we clearly know it is.

 

I apologize for taking a shot. I've gotten frustrated given the straightforwardness of this situation.

 

 

He was taking the pitches right down the middle and swinging at the stuff out of the zone from what I saw.

But couldn't that be exactly what he's working on doing? How can anyone be certain that Rickie's not working semi-exclusively on hitting breaking pitches/borderline pitches? Everyone already knows what he can do with those fastballs right down the pike.

[GoudaBrew]

Turns out Weeks is hurt, but it just happened so that's not why he stinks so far this spring. He says its all timing and isn't concerned about it.

 

The injury doesn't sound serious, but it will take ABs away from him and make it harder to iron out the kinks.

 

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080317&content_id=2434426&vkey=spt2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=mil

[afeter]

rulz, I am trying to think outside the box by catching a trend before it becomes,..you know, a statiscallly measurable trend.

 

Well, I'm not contending that I'm 100% sure Weeks is perfectly fine. If he's hurt, I wouldn't know. My contention is simply that on the balance, 40 spring training ABs does a very poor job of representing a player's true skill. Craig friggin' Counsell has a 1.266 OPS!!!!

i guess that number is equally as astonishing as rickies 50 percent k rate. Page one, razzor actually hit some of my underlying motivation for this discussion. I did draft him, probably a bitearly, i was hoping for some real reassurance that he'll be ok. that number actually works a bit for me.

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

To elaborate on FIB's post...

 

"My timing is way off right now," Weeks said. "My swing feels good, and I feel real good up there, but that could be my nemesis: I feel too good right now. I'm out in front of everything."

 

 

Also, I found Braun's sore/stiff achilles tendon to be much more worrisome... to each his own. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

"Left fielder Ryan Braun sat, as expected, because of lingering stiffness in his right Achillies tendon.

...

Braun has played just once since he was scratched from a game against the Mariners on March 12, and was a late scratch again Sunday. Braun believes a new pair of shoes may be to blame, a pair of Nike Shox metal cleats.

"I guess Nike has had problems with the Shox," said Braun, who had heard that NBA players had stopped wearing the shoe. "It makes sense, because they take so much pressure off your heel and put it on the front of your foot. I don't know if that had anything to do with it or not.

"It's my right Achilles, so it hurts when I try to push off my back leg [while] hitting or running. Better to get it taken care of now than have it lingering later. ... There's no reason to take a chance."

 

Sounds very similar to what troubled Hall after his high-ankle sprain (in terms of effect, obv. it's ankle v. achilles tendon) last year.

 

[Gobias Industries]

That was his point. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Yes, I know. I was just saying how I understand his argument and what he meant by his post, but I'm not so sure I agree that Counsell and Weeks situation is the result of a small sample size.

[TooLiveBrew]

*removes foot from mouth, transfers to kicking backside*

[homer]

Weeks problem has always been that he's been way out in front of everything.