Is Rickie's Production A Concern?

[JohnBriggs12]

Maybe it's good that he gets one of his slumps out of the way in spring training. But if he's still under .150 and fanning every other time up two weeks from now, it's hard to see how he'll suddenly snap out of it in 35 degree weather.

[rluzinski]

But we have 4 or 5 players who aren't hitting home runs right now. That certainly becomes more statistically significant.

 

Only if we knew nothing else about the players on the team would it become more stastically significant. But in this case, the more players you include in your team sample, the more information you add of prior knowlege. You wouldn't have any expectations of these players if you didn't have prior information (scouting and past performance) telling you to. The more players you add to your team sample, the more thousands of AB from previous seasons you need to consider.

 

Unless we have a reason to believe that the perfomance of teamates are somehow linked (beyond sharing a specific ballpark and having common opponents), a team sample tells us nothing more than simply looking at the samples individually. This is why my in-season series probabilities are currently pretty flawed, even if I do wait until about midseason to start them. I'm trying to estimate a player's true skill from maybe 300 AB, which has a high degree of uncertainty associated with it. I should be adding the in-season sample to my preseason projection as my first step.

 

By the way, has anyone ever actually does extensive regression analysis on spring training stats? Surely there must be some correlation between spring training success and regular season success. That would make for a great article.

 

I vaguely recall a study that looked at the most extreme performances over spring training and concluded that it predicted a small increase or decrease in expected performance for that upcoming season. Something like 40 points of OPS above or below expectations in spring training translated to 4 points in the regular season. It was small but it existed. Spring training starts aren't worthless, but small samples, lower average opponent skill and players not always putting winning first adds a lot of noise to the data.

[crewcrazy]

But we have 4 or 5 players who aren't hitting home runs right now. That certainly becomes more statistically significant.

For all we know, the guys that aren't hitting HRs right now are focusing on doing other things at the plate -- just like you can't really trust pitchers' spring training numbers because they're working on location and pitch development, you can't really trust batting stats in spring because a lot of guys are focusing more on taking the ball the other way or timing their swings.

 

If we had proof that the guys were consciously trying to hit HRs and were still putting up goose eggs, I'd be more inclined to get worried. I wouldn't even bother to get worried until there's about a week before the start of the season when there's more continuity in the lineups.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

I guess one way to look at this is if the situation were in reverse... if the Crew's regulars were bombing out an ungodly amount of HR, and the team total would put them on pace for over 300 HR on a season, would people be expecting a huge progression in terms of HR hitting, or would they chalk it up to ST & small sample?

[Fatter than Joey]

would people be expecting a huge progression in terms of HR hitting

 

I'm pretty sure we would collectively expect 300 HRs

[twobrewers]

For all we know, the guys that aren't hitting HRs right now are focusing on doing other things at the plate -- just like you can't really trust pitchers' spring training numbers because they're working on location and pitch development, you can't really trust batting stats in spring because a lot of guys are focusing more on taking the ball the other way or timing their swings.

That is certainly a possibility. But how often are playing not trying to hit HRs?

 

I know pitchers in spring training often work on different pitches - and usually don't bust out all of their breaking pitches until a few weeks in. But for the most part, hitters are trying to hit. Obviously they work on adjustments (Such as Week's seeing more pitches), but I don't think it is nearly as pronounced as pitching statistics in spring training.

[jordanmuehl]

I'd be lying if I said that Rickie's slow start wasn't making me a little concerned, but as TLB has pointed out a few times in this thread, it is just spring training. I have confidence in Rickie after last year's August/September -- he's got the talent and the drive to turn it around and the ambition to never go back to AAA going for him.

[rluzinski]

But for the most part, hitters are trying to hit.

 

Prince is trying not to pull everything, braun might be trying to be more selective. It's not even worth fretting about for so many reasons.

[1992casey]

A couple of years ago when the Cardinals clinched the division, Reggie Sanders consciously stopped swinging. He said he went into "spring training mode" to prepare for the playoffs. Rather than trying to get hits, Reggie's "spring training mode" was to take pitches and watch.

[Gobias Industries]

Prince is trying not to pull everything, braun might be trying to be more selective. It's not even worth fretting about for so many reasons.

Rluzinski-

 

I wish I could be as positive and patient as you but I've never seen a player struggle so bad in Spring Training when it's the norm for the pitchers to be the rusty ones. Yeah Prince and Braun are working on specific areas of their approach but they are still somewhat succeding at being productive. Weeks is lucky to make contact in an at-bat or let alone get on-base. Whatever the hell he's working on out there better stop come opening day. As a huge Weeks fan this spring has been very disheartening.

 

 

[endaround]

Counsell had a 900 OPS through two months in 2006. He didn't suddenly become a great hitter. Unless you believe Weeks suddenly forgot how to hit, why are you worried?

[Ennder]

Last year Kouzmanoff hit .113 with a .354 OPS in april and then hit like .295 the rest of the way.

 

I'll be happier to see Weeks hit his groove before opening day but I don't think this somehow portends a bad year for him.

[rluzinski]

I wish I could be as positive and patient as you but I've never seen a player struggle so bad in Spring Training

 

And when I didn't think Gwynn Jr. was the next Gwynn Sr. after 36 AB last year, people wanted to know why I was being so pessimistic. I may not always be right but I'm just looking at the facts as I see them. I'm patient with regard to analyzing performance because the game demands it.

[logan82]

I see Weeks still has a 100+ point split between his BA and OBP. Whenever his hitting comes around his OBP should skyrocket. Yost seems unconcerned, so that's good.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=728418

[Gopher74]

My indication on Weeks having a break-out 2008 is based on his career as a whole and most recently his camp performance. Using last Aug/Sept 2007 as your indication is completely acceptable and we can leave it at that.

 

Yes, and I understand what you're saying. I really do, and I respect it. But you corrected me by saying the "indication" I was using was too small a sample size. I was just saying that by definition, it's always going to be.

But anyway, yes, I only meant it to mean that Rickie's shown that he is capable of playing that way. That's all. I don't think it means that he's definitely going to have a Ted Williams like season, but I think it's a very encouraging sign that he at least proved last year that it was in large part the wrist that was the problem.

 

So Weeks was healthy all of sudden just 10 days after he was injured (called up 8/10)? Was he injured all of 2005? I don't ignore his wrist injury, but I will not use it as an excuse for his performance to date.

 

"To date" is a bit too broad. He had a rookie season in which he clearly hit the wall and looked as though he just hit a wall, his second year he was very good until he got hurt. Then when he had his surgery the Doctor's said that it would take up to a full year until he was completely healed, and almost one year to the day that he had the surgery he started to perform exceptionally well.

 

But you also have to keep in mind that while he was suffering from that wrist injury, he had to alter the way he played the game, even if it was only a small amount, he had to alter it. For starters, on sliders. He had to get his bat started a bit early from lost bat speed with a bad wrist. Well, that's going to lead to not being able to see the ball well enough, and then having a bad wrist, it's incredibly painful to check your swing. So now you're jumping at pitches, getting started early and not being able to check it. When you struggle because of injury, you do things to compensate. My guess would be that Rickie's wrist was feeling better probably a little bit before the date that we're talking about, ie, his recall from AAA, but that he then had to fight some poor mechanical issues from the injury.

I'm not trying to hate on Rickie Weeks here, but I am kind of a realist. He has the ability to produce, but I just haven't seen the stars align for him up to this point.

 

With all respect, this is one of my biggest pet peeves. I've yet to find anyone who thinks that they're not a realist when arguing. I don't think that anyone on this post is saying something they find to be UN-realistic. So of course you think you're being realistic, that's the point of you arguing.

 

But as for the second part, I don't think anyone can argue. No, he absolutely has not had everything come together for him up 'till this point that has allowed Rickie to put it all together. That is something I can certainly agree with.

 

I don't want to sound rude either, but i'm pretty sure that's not the very definition. An indication does not have to encompass a small sample size. It is more broad than that. I wouldn't want to say i have an indication I will win the lottery soon because I matched two numbers yesterday but never matched a number up to that point. Matching two numbers could be seen as a sign[/i] of matching all 5 in the future, but remains as unlikely given the history to date.

 

However, I replied to a post in which someone said that Weeks had shown no indication that he could have a .400 OBP. You came in and said that it didn't count because it was such a small sample size. My point is that an indication absolutely IS by definition a small sample size. If it was a large sample size, what would it be indicating? Nothing. An indication definitely is a small sample, a "sign".

 

Your lottery ticket analogy doesn't really relate in any way. The lottery isn't a progressive measure. Improvement on the baseball field or improving skills certainly are. Let me see...how about a wounded animal. A wounded animal that broke it's leg that can get up and limp on it. That's an "indication" that it's healing. A small measure that points to progress.

 

I do have to admit, I'm actually shocked that I'm sitting here arguing the definition of "indication".

[saget]

Powell said on the broadcast today that Weeks is trying to take as many pitches as he can per AB(or something like that). It might be just something he's doing in ST to help him prepare for the season.

 

His ST production is not really an issue with me.

[lukevan]

Wake me up when spring training ends. I have yet to really care about any boxscore or statistic from this preseason.

 

Except for Vargas, he's obviously showing he is a winner.

[Gobias Industries]

Powell said on the broadcast today that Weeks is trying to take as many pitches as he can per AB(or something like that). It might be just something he's doing in ST to help him prepare for the season.

 

His ST production is not really an issue with me.

That is really good to hear. Makes a lot more sense to why he's striking out so much.

[lcbj68c]

I'm so concerned about Rickie's defense, I'd be half tempted at a trade and let Irriberean (spelling) get up here. I always was higher on Callix Crabbe then I was Weeks and the errors this spring have about let me reach the end of my rope when it comes to rooting for Rickie Weeks to succeed. Power or not, the defense is killing this team. We have lots of power, so let's find a 2b than can field his position or get Herman up here. Where's that rant thread?

[Fear The Chorizo]

It's not Weeks' offense that has me concerned, it's his defense this spring training...unless he's working on how to boot a groundball, he's not doing much right in the field

[jason21nl]

It's not Weeks' offense that has me concerned, it's his defense this spring training...unless he's working on how to boot a groundball, he's not doing much right in the field

No kidding..Watching the game today, Weeks is just not a good fielder.

 

[logan82]

lcbj68c wrote:

Where's that rant thread?

Not meaning to be rude, but just answering your question. I believe the vent thread is down a few pages.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm so concerned about Rickie's defense, I'd be half tempted at a trade and let Irriberean (spelling) get up here. I always was higher on Callix Crabbe then I was Weeks and the errors this spring have about let me reach the end of my rope when it comes to rooting for Rickie Weeks to succeed. Power or not, the defense is killing this team. We have lots of power, so let's find a 2b than can field his position or get Herman up here. Where's that rant thread?

Crabbe's having a great spring for Padres and oh my gosh, he's playing SS too. All we used to hear was that he couldn't play SS which is why he had no value as utility player.

[Fatter than Joey]

No kidding..Watching the game today, Weeks is just not a good fielder.

 

Not to pile on, but I was not impressed with either Hardy or Weeks (especially Weeks) -- I realize that Munson isn't going to get a lot of starts at 1b, but they sure didn't help out Sheets at all yesterday.

 

I'm afraid Weeks will HAVE to put up crazy OPS numbers to justify his position in the field -- at least 2b, -- I'd be willing to see how he does in the OF if a spot cleared up.

[lukevan]

I'd be willing to see how he does in the OF if a spot cleared up.

 

me too FTJ. I was on the Weeks to CF bandwagon from a few seasons ago and I still think he could be quite good out there.