Is Rickie's Production A Concern?

[bobskube]

Simple answer is "no."

[ozzybourne]

weeks is due. too good a hitter in college that has taken a bit longer to get adjusted--on another team he would be an up and coming stud. ala bj upton. stay healthy and he is a top 5 2nd baseman.

[TooLiveBrew]

Can Rickie put together a year close to his performance after he was called up? I sure hope so, but he was sent down to AAA to work on some bad habits. Hopefully those habits won't come back once the games count.

 

But it wasn't that he figured out any 'bad habits' as much as it was his wrist healed... right on schedule. If these 'bad habits' manifest themselves as they did once his wrist was cleared up, then I hope Rickie keeps every last bad habit. He's healthy, and honestly doesn't have many bad habits offensively.

[RyGuy671]

weeks is due. too good a hitter in college that has taken a bit longer to get adjusted--on another team he would be an up and coming stud. ala bj upton. stay healthy and he is a top 5 2nd baseman.

I was actually thinking about that today. Doesn't he hold the all-time NCAA record for season batting average, or did he just win a couple of batting titles?

 

Either way, yeah, he was a heckuva college (and minors) player. I'm just anxious to see what he'll do now that he's healthy. And you have to give him major props for adjusting his game to the leadoff position, one he wasn't really suited to coming up (more a #3). The guy is an OBP machine!

[danzig6767]

I have little to no doubt that Rickie will get on base well this year, the thing i don't know what to expect is the number of extra base hits he'll rack up.

 

I expected Weeks to become a guy who on a yearly basis hit 20-30 homers with lots of doubles and triples, along with having great eye at the plate. Hopefully the wrist issues were the biggest reason that Weeks hasn't been able to rip laser beams all over the diamond like i had expected.

[TheBrewer]

Though it's grown on me him batting leadoff, at the same time when Yost first started doing it I was never a fan of it, and I still question it a hint today as during all the time Weeks has spent outside of the Brewers under Yost he's batted anywhere from #2 - #5 in the lineup, and he's PRODUCED BIG. Does that MAYBE mean that Weeks just isn't a leadoff type hitter?

I also did get scared in Sept. he hit like .247 but with the power OBP yet, while in August he hit .311? or so.. I really hope he breaks out this year, and I was thinking about his ST appearances too, but it is too early to worry yet.. If he's stil struggling in say May with a .230BA little power alot of K's then I'd worry about the future of 2B..

He could go anywhere IMO during his PRIME of being a .320/40HR/40SB hitter to where the best he does in his prime is .275/22HR/32SB... and he's clearly not near his prime yet about 3-4 years down the line at this point yet, but whether or not his prime will be in the majors or minors at that point will be a valid question.

[RightFieldCoder]

Here's the problem I have. Rickie should not change his approach hitting first than if he was hitting in the #2-#5 hole. The only difference is that you would end up taking the first pitch a lot more in your first at bat and there will be less people on base when you hit. But if no one's on base when he hits that means there is no one in front of him when he gets his motor going.

[GoudaBrew]

Anybody know where Weeks hit in the lineup in college? How many pitches per PA he took in college? Was he always groomed to be a lead off hitter in the minors?

 

I ask these questions because Rickie's plate discipline almost seems forced at some times. Maybe he's taking on the lead off hitter's mentality--trying to get onto first base anyway he can.

 

Since Weeks is a good fastball hitter, and we have a legit lead off hitter in Cameron, could we see a lineup change if Rickie struggles after the first month?

[Gobias Industries]

FIB4Brew[/b]]Maybe he's taking on the lead off hitter's mentality--trying to get onto first base anyway he can.

 

He said these exact words in a McCalvy article this spring. He could care less how he gets on. It wouldn't hurt him to be a little less patient at the plate when he's not leading off an inning, kind of like how Braun goes up there and swings at that first pitch a lot if he likes it. When Rickie gets his pitch he crushes it, which we saw in August and September. None of those homers the last two months were cheap.

 

Rickie will be fine. He's probably gonna fall short of the really optimistic people on this site and Keith Law who predicted something along the lines of .400/.500 for him this year. I just don't think he'll have that high of a slugging percentage. On-base is definitely achievable which is the main thing for this team IMO.

[1992casey]

It wouldn't hurt him to be a little less patient at the plate when he's not leading off an inning, kind of like how Braun goes up there and swings at that first pitch a lot if he likes it. When Rickie gets his pitch he crushes it...

Wouldn't crushing those pitches be a direct result of his patience? Studies show that higher contact rates generally mean more weak contact, and that higher OBPs and SLG pcts. tend to result in lower contact rates.

[Gobias Industries]

Wouldn't crushing those pitches be a direct result of his patience? Studies show that higher contact rates generally mean more weak contact, and that higher OBPs and SLG pcts. tend to result in lower contact rates.

I'm on board with being very patient at the plate. When Weeks has a runner on though, he tends to let the best pitch in the at bat go by; first pitch fastball right down the heart of the plate. I'm sure opposing managers/scouts have the knowledge that he's prone to taking the first pitch in almost every one of his at bats, and are able to get ahead of him a majority of the time.

 

Not to get too off-topic, but while watching the playoffs this last year, I noticed truly great hitters like Manny and Ortiz do this almost everytime, especially Manny. Runner(s) in scoring position; Manny was swinging first pitch fastball everytime. If he didn't crush that pitch, he would get down in the count because he would sometimes foul it off. But being the great hitter he is, he would then work the count full or in his favor and then take the walk or finally get another pitch to hit which he would then crush. To a lesser degree, Braun and Fielder did this last year too. Weeks is too good of a hitter to let that pitch go by, especially being a great fastball hitter.

[Loopee]

I don't think the stats mean a whole lot right now, but I would be interested in any observations from video/people in AZ about what Rickie's approach is currently like. I wonder if he is trying to work on power game or some other mechanical issue and having adjustment problems. If he's focused on OBP right now, the 10 Ks to 1 BB could indicate a problem with plate discipline.

[LUKE232323]

I was actually thinking about that today. Doesn't he hold the all-time NCAA record for season batting average, or did he just win a couple of batting titles?

Weeks did indeed have the highest batting average in college history, finish his career at .473.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1653022

 

As a college sophomore at Southern University in 2002, Rickie Weeks hit .495 with 20 homers, winning the NCAA Division I batting title, and putting him into contention as a first-round pick for the '03 draft. He followed that up by hitting .479 with 16 homers in 2003, winning his second straight batting title and finishing his college career with the highest batting average in NCAA history (.473).

 

 

(pared back nested quote --1992)

[7rebmun]

That's the thing really, we have no idea what Rickie is working on at the plate.

 

As someone suggested, perhaps he's trying to work the count in meaningless Spring Training games. Hitting from behind in the count is difficult and tough to work on or simulate once games have started. At that point you're focused soley on winning ball games. Again, I have no idea if that's what he's doing, maybe he's just having a crappy spring.

 

Bring on the Cubs!

[sheethead]

I love all the Rickie Weeks optimism here, but I think he strikes out too much - especially for a leadoff hitter without consistent power. In his career 1289 PA he has K'ed 310 times, or about 24% of the time. I believe his plate approach/timing method leaves him susceptible to more strikeouts than walks (149) every year. Personally, I think he strikes out too often for a leadoff guy, and my expectations of his overall production year over year have lowered dramatically since he was drafted. Who cares what he did in college, he is facing major league pitching everyday now. Its barely even the same game!!

[strawbossisevil]

As long as he gets on base at a good clip, the strikeouts matter very very little. Especially in the lead off position, where he'll have runners on much less than someone later in the order. His job is to "set the plate" for the sluggers behind him. So I'd say strike outs should be the least of our concerns with Rickie.

 

He could K 200 times a season and still be a great lead off hitter if he managed to keep his OBP around .400.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think he strikes out too much - especially for a leadoff hitter without consistent power.

The wrist injury/ies were playing too large a role in his power in years past to provide what he can do. In all honesty & objectivity, Rickie's Aug-Sept. 2007 power numbers are much closer to his 'norm' than what he did playing through pain in the wrist.

 

my expectations of his overall production year over year have lowered dramatically since he was drafted.

I'm hoping that the hunch that Rickie will 'break out' in 2008 will skew your forecasting! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Ennder]

I'll never understand the strikes out too much for a leadoff hitter. If any single player in my team is going to strike out I'd think the leadoff hitter would be the one I would want to. He gets the least AB with runners on out of your good hitters and the only bad thing about a strikeout is it cannot move a runner.

 

Now it of course hurts his AVG but the BB/HBP more than make up for it and leaves him as one of the best OBP guys on the team.

[sheethead]

He could K 200 times a season and still be a great lead off hitter if he managed to keep his OBP around .400.

 

Rickie's OBP has never been around .400, much what been able to keep it there. If he K'ed 200 times a season he would be a great leadoff hitter IF he walked a decent amount to make up for it OR hit for a much better average than the .249 career clip he's sporting now.

 

 

I'm hoping that the hunch that Rickie will 'break out' in 2008 will skew your forecasting! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I hope so too!! He pretty much needs to to it this year for Rickie, and obviously the Brewers would benefit from it as well. I am not expecting it though, as he hasn't shown me any indication he will. Going into 2008 I have Rickie in the bottom third of all leadoff hitters as well as 2B. His game (and radical swing) just hasn't translated well at the mlb level. Maybe the way he hurt his wrist was an omen.

[Gopher74]

. But it looks like he's made the team and sent super prospect Stewart back to the minors.

Stewart is actually considered a disappointment and is likely a Four A ballplayer.

 

By who? Jeez, it's early to give up on Weeks, but it's NOT to early to call a top 50 prospect a "disappointment and a FourA player"? For the record, I think it's far too early to give up on either.

 

[dadofandrew]

Stewart may not be a top 10 prospect in the game, but he's a good one. The Rockies might just be using his time to delay his free agency...smart business if you have a veteran stopgap.

[Gopher74]

I hope so too!! He pretty much needs to to it this year for Rickie, and obviously the Brewers would benefit from it as well. I am not expecting it though, as he hasn't shown me any indication he will. Going into 2008 I have Rickie in the bottom third of all leadoff hitters as well as 2B.

I don't get it, where people just NOT paying attention last year? The fact that his OBP was over .400 after he came back up isn't "any indication"? The fact that he was top 5 in MANY of the key statistical area's after coming back up of all leadoff hitters, hell, even for the entire year means that he's a bottom 3rd leadoff hitter? Based on what? He was a top 3rd leadoff hitter with a bad wrist that badly hampered his game last year. Now healthy, he's bottom 3rd?

 

[strawbossisevil]

Sheethead: "Rickie's OBP has never been around .400."

 

After returning from AAA, last season Rickie put up the following OBP:

In August .500 (no, that is no typo)

In September .409

 

While repeating his August numbers may be a bit of a stretch. His September line of .245 .409 .571 he should be able to repeat. I should point out additionally, he has never come close to 200ks either. But my point doesn't change. As long as Rickie gets on base at a high clip, he can K all he wants and it won't seriously hurt our offensive production. Ks out of the lead off spot are much less harmful than in places in the lineup where runners are on base.

 

I still am amazed at how much weight people put on the strike out stat, like it is the worst thing possible for a player to have. I'd rather have a K, than a 4-6-3 grounder any day of the week.

[TooLiveBrew]

Rickie's OBP has never been around .400

2007: .374
2d half, 2007: .422
August 2007: .500
Sept. 2007: .409

Rickie's OBP in the first half last year was .328, and he still managed to work it up to .374.

[logan82]

He could K 200 times a season and still be a great lead off hitter if he managed to keep his OBP around .400.

 

Rickie's OBP has never been around .400, much what been able to keep it there. If he K'ed 200 times a season he would be a great leadoff hitter IF he walked a decent amount to make up for it OR hit for a much better average than the .249 career clip he's sporting now.

He did have a .373 OBP last year. He has a .357 OBP for his career. That .357 is better than most of our current players have ever put up in any single year. His OPS was #10 among all 2B. His OBP #8. He had a .385 OBP as a leadoff hitter last year. That ranked #4 among guys with at least 325 PA as a leadoff hitter. Just forget about looking at his BA and you might actually like the guy.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?sort=onBasePct&split=109&league=mlb&season=2007&seasonType=2&type=reg&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&minpa=325&hand=a&pos=all