The St Louis Cardinals will finish in last place

[splitterpfj]

1. Chris Carpenter isn't back yet, and may never be the same.

2. Mark Mulder isn't back yet, and may never be the same.

3. Albert Pujols already knows he needs reconstructive elbow surgery, postponing it is only impacting the 2009 season.

4. Juan Gonzalez...yes, THAT Juan Gonzalez may see significant at-bats for this team.

5. The farm system does have Colby Rasmus, but it does not have enough MLB-ready talent to plug the gaps.

 

I think they've hit the iceberg, it's time for Pirates fans to actually taunt someone.

[Thurston Fluff]

You might very well be right. They really haven't been great for a couple years. I know they won a WS a couple years ago but that had more to do with a weak division and a hot run in the playoffs than how good that team was IMO. I'm kind of interested in seeing how long LaRussa sticks around. He doesn't seem to be the type to want to go through a rebuild att his point in his career.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think picking the Cardinals for last is going out on a limb.

 

Pittsburgh at least has two very good starters in Snell and Gorzelanny. Houston has an imposing lineup and an ace. I don't think the Cardinals even match up with those two much less the top teams in the division.

[Ennder]

I still think the Cardinals will finish ahead of the Pirates. Snell is a pretty good starter but Gorzelanny is a 4 ERA arm and the backend of the rotation just doesn't excite me. The offense will still be pretty miserable.

 

I'm not a fan of the Cardinals by any means, I like them for 5th place with more of a chance for 6th than for 4th.

[owbc]

If Pujols goes down, this could become a reality.

 

But the Pirates and Astros are also very weak. The Reds have Dusty Baker.

 

I think the key aspect is that the Cardinals were 78-84 last year, and that includes the week of games they lost after Hancock died. So they weren't that far away (record wise) from contending last year. The Pirates were 10 games worse and haven't done anything major to improve. It could be close, but I still see the Cards beating up on Houston and Cincinnati more than the Pirates will.

 

Plus, could we argue the Pirates have the curse of John Kruk?

[rluzinski]

The Cardinals finishing last might be as likely as the Brewers finishing 1st. It might not be probable but it's the next most likely scenario.

[dadofandrew]

I would say 4th, as I don't think much of HOU or PIT, and the Pirates appear to be in salary dump mode, as they should be, several years away in the success cycle.

 

That said, if they lose Pujols, they might lose 100.

[Biestie1]

When haven't the Pirates been in salary dump mode?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

When they had Barry Bonds and Andy Van Slyke.

[Biestie1]

Maybe I should've asked that question differently.

[RedbirdRay]

Not really going out on a limb with that revelation!

 

I actually kind of hope they do, but doubt they finish behind the Pirates. I think a last place finish would be a wake up call for the front office, but then again...I really dont think the new regime is making bad decisions. Our payroll was out of control under Jocketty. There was no fixing this year's team. The new GM resisted any temptation to try to throw money at the problem or trade any of our prospects. No moves out there would have improved us enough to compete with you or the Cubs. The Izturis signing was questoinable, but...one year < 3 million is nothing to get that worked up about. We're all hoping he's DFAd along with Kennedy. I doubt they will cut them both, though.

 

The main reason I hope we finish last would be the draft pick. We pick 13th this year. 3 years ago our farm system was ranked in the bottom 3 depending on who was doing the rating. Now, we are middle of the pack. Not great, but moving in the right direction. Another strong draft or two and it will be something to be proud of. I honestly think if Jocketty were still at the helm we would have traded Rasmus this off-season. Jocketty also yielded to Selig's slotting system. Indications from the Mo are that is a thing of the past. The best player available will be the one taken. Jeff Luhnow seems to have a nice nose for drafting.

 

Our fans are looking for small things to watch for this year...Carpenter's return ( we don't expect much this year from him), whether our Rule 5 pickup will stick and what he will do, whether Ankiel can really hit 30 homers and have an OBP around .300, our army of young RH relievers coming up, and the probably mid-season arrival of the Colby Rasmus era.

 

In regards to all the discussion of Pujols' elbow around the forum lately....well, I don't know how I feel about that. I agree it would be timelier this year. It would be better to be rehabbed and strong in 2009. But, tommy John for position players is about 6 or 7 months. So, I guess he could shut things down after a couple months (when it's obvious even to his stubborn self that we are out of the race) and still be back for next year. Additionally, he injured it in 2003. It's gotten a little worse each year...but, you can't really argue that he's been too awful bad playing injured can you? He's cranked three homers this spring since the "new" reports of his elbow problems came out and doesn't exactly have poor rates so far...or in 2004...or 2005...or 2006...you get what I mean.

 

I'm looking forward to next off-season. I don't think we can completely turn the team around in one winter, but after a year of letting youngsters play we should have a pretty good idea of what we have and what we need. We have a TON of money coming off the books. The free agent crop is better than it has been in a few years. Carpenter should be strong by then and the prognosis for Tommy John patients is pretty nice. Colby should be adjusted. 2009 should be much better.

 

In regards to Juan Gonzalez, I don't think the Cardinals are really serious about him. Pujols and Molina lobbied hard for him and TLR loves him some PED veterans, so I think the minor league contract was a little pacification after the front office slapped down TLRs Barry Bonds request. Today was the first day all spring Juan played the field. Most of the beat writers and fans think that's writing on the wall. Our only fear is TLR will win out and we will lose our Rule 5 (Brian Barton) to create a roster spot for Juan. Since giving him a roster spot will lose the system a player, I don't think the choice will be Tony's though. I would guess either Juan will be traded to an AL team for a low level prospect or he will be allowed to "prove" himself at AAA until some team becomes interested. He can't play center and he won't get playing time over Baby Duncan or Ankiel. I really don't want him on our bench either. Not really because I don't like him, I just don't think he's worth the oppurtunity cost.

[Kurt]

I'm still not convinced Rick Ankiel is for real. I kind of see him fizzling out and not even being on the team come late August.

[apirk]

I guess I am in the minority that I think the Cards could as easily finish in 3rd as in last(Note: I do live in STL). I think after the Cubs and Brewers none of th eremaining 4 are that much better then the others: Houston has almost zero pitching, the reds have Dusty Baker, and the Pirates are the Pirates. I am actually kind of looking forward to watching some of these guys who have had limited opportunities in the past play. Their Rule 5 pickup barton has looked real good, I like Ryan at SS or 2B, I think Yadier will continue to improve at the plate, their bullpen is very good and I think LaRussa finds a way to get the best out of the talent he has even if it is limited. Pujols will need sugary sometime but it would be a bad decision to get it done until he completely tears it. Their SP is absolute garbage though and Crpenter won't be back till at the earliest August.

[RedbirdRay]

OT, sorta. Did anyone see this Dusty Baker quote:

 

On Votto: "He needs to swing some more. I talked to him about that. Strikeouts aren't the only criteria. I'd like to see him more aggressive."

 

"A lot of this on-base percentage is taking away the aggressiveness of some young kids. Most of the time you've got to put handcuffs on a young to keep him from swinging."

He talks about Dunn in the link also. I was thinking the Reds could be a darkhorse before I saw that. God help poor Jay Bruce and Joey Votto.

[ozzybourne]

cards in last. only for this year. how the mighty have fallen.

[RyGuy671]

I think if the Pirates had a bit better offense, they might be able to creep out of last place. I still feel that Pujols will be shut down before the All-Star break, and that'll mean season over for the Cards.

 

Brewers

Cubs

Reds

'Stros

Cards

Pirates

is how I see it.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yea, the Bucs certainly have better pitching than the Cards, which will go a long way to determining which one finishes ahead of the other. One semi-major injury to StL's staff, and this 'race' is over.

[logan82]

The Cards will be much better next year after they sign Sheets.

[ILuvDaBush]

So Dusty is telling the kid to be more of a free swinger or he's not going to be replacing Scott Hatteburg...whose one redeeming quality is his ability to take the BB. Hmm, maybe Dusty plans on playing Corey Patterson as an example of how to "Swing Away." Those poor poor Great American BP fans. Their Idea of the Big Red Machine is about to become the Big Red Fan from all the whiffs.

[RedbirdRay]

I don't think a major injury to the Cardinals staff would make them any worse. I mean, they really don't have a staff other than Wainwright. Looper will probably regress. Replacing any of the others with replacement level is well....treading water at the worst. Maybe Reyes will turn out the be the prospect he was thought to be. I hope so, but kinda doubt it. The Pirates have no offense and I think Gorzellany is hurt. He had some problems last year and something looks wrong this spring.

 

It kinda looks like the staff has it's first casualty anyway...Piniero is having shoulder problems. Oh well.

[ILuvDaBush]

What about Clement? He's a few years removed from surgery and he was once one of the better pitchers in the NL Central. It also doesn't hurt that he is a good example of the inefficiency of the Cubs' front office and he allows me to reference the Willis deal at will.

[RedbirdRay]

I am skeptical about Clement. It was a no-harm/no-foul sort of signing...1.25 million plus some stair-step bonuses for innings pitched. They have an option on him next year for around 8 million should he re-prove himself. But, i doubt he will. Nothing against Clement, it's just the success rate of pitchers post-shoulder surgery is pretty darn low. Likewise, I think Mulder's career is probably in the bucket also. One positive about Mulder, he didn't really throw that hard in the first place...so, I guess some lost velocity isn't as big of a deal with him. Carpenter recovering from Tommy John, I have high hopes for...Mulder and Clement, I'm am just happy are off the books by next year. Mulder has an 11 million option, but I have serious doubts he'll be worth picking it up.

 

EDIT: Clement will not be ready at the start of the season. They are projecting just a few weeks behind. The reason is poor arm strength. Also, there are now reports the Cardinals are looking at Kyle Lohse for a one-year deal. I am not sure how I feel about that. I am sure it will be cheap and one year, but still not sure we should be spending money with no chance at a post-season anyway.

 

The rotation right now looks like Wainwright, Looper and Reyes.....with Thompson and Wellermeyer filling in until Mulder, Piniero, Clement ...or long-term Carpenter returns. We have a couple minor leaguers who might get a look but are nothing to get excited about. Still, I'd rather see what they have and give them some experience in a rebuilding year than seek out a one year deal for a stop-gap. Our low-level pitching is looking decent and we don't have enough minor league starting jobs to spread around...seems like a no-brainer to me.

[splitterpfj]

I thought it might be fun to pull this thread up right now, with the Cards in first place.

 

FWIW, I absolutely, positively, do not buy the Cardinals as a contender for the playoffs this season.

[orca1963]

Oh Boy...hopefully this doesn't get me banned from the board...The Cards will not finish in last place because of Larussa. I know he is not very popular around here but the man can manage. There last WS win when they did not have any where near the best team is the most recent evidence. To underestimate him IMO who be a mistake. Having said that...please be gentle http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

[uwisfan]

yeah, no way the Cards under LaRussa will allow this year's team to fall into last.

 

Some interesting thoughts:

In spite of an 11-6 record, the top of the order for the Crew doesnt have a player over .240:

Weeks: .188

Hardy: .200

Braun: .235

Fielder: .237

 

Only 6 teams in MLB have 6 or fewer losses, and 3 of them are in the NL Central.