BP Top 15 Systems

[TooLiveBrew]

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March 5, 2008

Future Shock

Organizational Rankings, Part 2

by Kevin Goldstein

1. Tampa Bay Rays Last Year's Ranking: 1 Why They're Unchanged: Evan Longoria's full-season debut went even better than expected, and they added No. 1 overall pick David Price to the system. Strengths: Yes. There are just tons of prospects everywhere, as 20 of MLB's 30 teams don't have one prospect ranked higher than Tampa's fifth-rated player. Weaknesses: It's hard to figure out what to do with all of this talent. Seriously, they're not just No. 1, they're No. 1 by a mile. Outlook for 2009 Ranking: Unchanged. Even with Longoria in the big leagues, the Rays have more than enough talent to remain at the top, and once again, they have the first overall pick in June. 2. Oakland Athletics Last Year's Ranking: 23 Why They're Up: Their rebuilding process got off to excellent start, as the Dan Haren and Nick Swisher deals brought in a bevy of excellent prospects to restock the system. Strengths: Their High-A rotation will have three Top 100 prospects, and there are more arms worth noting at nearly every level in the system; Daric Barton is ready to step in at first base; Carlos Gonzalez is nearly ready as a five-tool outfielder. Weaknesses: Infielders. Outlook for 2009 Ranking: It's hard to go up, but most of their talent, especially the pitching, has a maturation date of 2009 and beyond. 3. Texas Rangers Last Year's Ranking: 22 Why They're Up: Deadline deals filled the system with prospects, as six of Top 11 weren't with the organization at the beginning of year; Chris Davis turned into legitimate power-hitting prospect. Strengths: Young power arms; high-tools prospects; catching. Weaknesses: Left-handed pitching; outfielders. Outlook for 2009 Ranking: Holding the line, if not going up, as only Eric Hurley might lose eligibility. 4. Boston Red Sox Last Year's Ranking: 11 Why They're Up: Clay Buchholz became the top pitching prospect in the game, Jacoby Ellsbury grabbed the center field job, and they had a strong '07 draft. Strengths: Right-handed pitching; toolsy outfielders. Weaknesses: Catching; pure power prospects. Outlook for 2009 Ranking: Down significantly, as Buchholz and Ellsbury move to the majors and leave no elite prospects in their wake. 5. Los Angeles Dodgers Last Year's Ranking: 5 Why They're Unchanged: Clayton Kershaw became the top lefty prospect in the game, and the '07 draft added even more pitching depth; Chin-Lung Hu added an offensive game to supplement his already Gold Glove-caliber defense. Strengths: Andy LaRoche and Hu make one of the top left sides in the minors, and there are more third basemen and shortstops to brag about beyond them; power arms. Weaknesses: Outfield prospects; catchers; right-side infielders. Outlook for 2009 Ranking: Little movement, but possibly down if the Dodgers do the right thing and make LaRoche their everyday third baseman this year. 6. New York Yankees Last Year's Ranking: 3 Why They're Down: The performances of Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy, along with Austin Jackson's breakout, were offset by Philip Hughes' graduation to the majors and injuries to Humberto Sanchez and Dellin Betances. Strengths: Pitching, pitching, and more pitching; high-ceiling outfielders; big investments in Latin America. Weaknesses: Infielders and catchers. Outlook for 2009 Ranking: Down a bit, as Joba and possibly some others will lose eligibility. 7. Cincinnati Reds Last Year's Ranking: 10 Why They're Up: Jay Bruce went from an excellent prospect to the best in baseball; Johnny Cueto proved that his '06 breakout was for real; their '07 draft added much-needed depth. Strengths: Two top ten overall prospects and four in the Top 41; the system has at least one decent prospect at every position. Weaknesses: The overall quality in the organization drops off significantly after the top four; they have few power arms after Homer Bailey and Cueto. Outlook for 2009 Ranking: A downward slide is inevitable, as Bruce and Bailey move up to the big leagues. 8. Atlanta Braves Last Year's Ranking: 14 Why They're Up: Jordan Schafer's big step forward; the trade of Edgar Renteria added two Top 100 prospects; their 2006-07 drafts look strong. Strengths: Tons of interesting young pitching; multi-faceted outfielders. Weaknesses: Catching and infielders. Outlook for 2009 Ranking: They shouldn't be down, as few of their top prospects will reach the major leagues this year, and some of these pitchers might end up as even better than advertised. 9. Colorado Rockies Last Year's Ranking: 2 Why They're Down: For all the right reasons, as Troy Tulowitzki and other rookies took Colorado to its first World Series. Strengths: Pitching depth; infield prospects. Weaknesses: Outfielders; left-handed pitchers after Franklin Morales. Outlook for 2009 Ranking: They could be drop down even more as more players move to be big leagues, and the talent coming from the lower levels fails to offer the same potential. 10. Baltimore Orioles Last Year's Ranking: 18 Why They're Up: They drafted the best college position player in Matt Wieters, and added a ton of talent in the Erik Bedard trade. Strengths: Right-handers who throw hard; power prospects; just on his own, Wieters makes catching a strength. Weaknesses: Athletic position players, especially in the middle infield and center field. Outlook for 2009 Ranking: They could be up if third baseman Billy Rowell and right-hander Brandon Erbe can return to previous form. 11. Los Angeles Angels Last Year's Ranking: 3 Why They're Down: No one big thing, as their stock of prospects Brandon Wood, Nick Adenhart, Sean Rodriguez and Hank Conger is all good it's just not as good as it was last year. Strengths: Infielders with power; right-handed starting pitching. Weaknesses: Very few outfield prospects; there's a bit of a gap between talent nearly ready for the big leagues and young players who will take a while. Outlook for 2009 Ranking: They could slip down further if Brandon Wood and Nick Adenhart lose their eligibility--otherwise, they'll likely remain unchanged here. 12. San Diego Padres Last Year's Ranking: 29 Why They're Up: Matt Antonelli and Chase Headley both exploded onto prospect lists; the team invested seven figures to add Matt Latos as a draft-and-follow; the windfall of '07 draft picks added much-needed depth. Strengths: Right-handed pitching, of both the power and finesse type; advanced hitters with on-base and power skills. Weaknesses: Left-handed arms, upper-level pitching. Outlook for 2009 Ranking: Down. Headley or Antonelli, and maybe both, will reach the big leagues this year, and it's doubtful that the system will find that kind of lightning in a bottle (twice) for a second consecutive season. 13. Milwaukee Brewers Last Year's Ranking: 7 Why They're Down: When you add players like Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo to the big leagues, you're allowed to be drop down a bit. Strengths: More of a well-rounded system than one that is overloaded in any one spot; top two prospects (Matt LaPorta and Manny Parra) should both be helping in the big leagues in short order. Weaknesses: After Jeremy Jeffress, there aren't a lot of power arms; after Matt LaPorta, there aren't a lot of power bats. Outlook for 2009 Ranking: Down a bit. The Brewers have turned themselves into a competitive team through scouting and player development, but the well might finally be running a bit dry. 14. Washington Nationals Last Year's Ranking: 30 Why They're Up: Chris Marrero is one of the better young sluggers around; the only thing better than having a ton of draft picks is knowing what to do with them, as the Nats used the 2007 draft to load up the system with a potential front-line starter in Ross Detwiler and another outstanding young masher in Michael Burgess. Strengths: Young power hitters; many good arms at the lower levels. Weaknesses: No position players that are close to big-league ready; short in infielders and catchers. Outlook for 2009 Ranking: Looking good. While Detwiler could lose eligibility as early as this year, there's still a lot of young talent here that could potentially step up and take his place in next year's Top 100. 15. St. Louis Cardinals Last Year's Ranking: 27 Why They're Up: Colby Rasmus emerged as one of the top power/speed prospects in the game; 2006 draftees Chris Perez and Adam Ottavino shone in their full-season debuts; catcher Bryan Anderson raked at Double-A as a 20-year-old; older prospects like Joe Mather and Jarrett Hoffpauir took big steps forward. Strengths: More up-the-middle prospects than most, with Rasmus, Anderson, and middle infielders like Jose Martinez and '07 first-round pick Peter Kozma; a good number of quality arms at Double-A or higher. Weaknesses: Their pitching has depth but lacks a high-ceiling starter; not much speed and athleticism after Rasmus. Outlook for 2009 Ranking: It depends. If Rasmus gets enough big-league playing time to lose eligibility, their ranking will go down because there's no other elite prospect in the system, nor a player capable of making a step forward into the Top 10. Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.

[DrWood]

hard for me to put much credibility into this when so many teams jump 10 or more places in one year. It suggests the brewers will fall next year, but doesn't consider the suppl. picks they will have.

[splitterpfj]

When I read the comment about the well finally beginning to run dry for the Brewers, I wondered if the author was aware of the extra picks the team will have this year. The guys who built the system are still in place, and they're well-armed for June....RAIN...THE CROPS ARE SAVED!

 

Totally agree on the Devil Rays though, the countless high draft choices have them overloaded with potential. I'm rooting hard for the day when this team makes a real move in their division.

[TooLiveBrew]

For the Rays, I'd bet that move takes place in less than 5 years. Both the Yanks & BoSux are getting pretty old, but have solid young talent coming along, too... just not the dearth of it that TB has. By 2010, I'd fully expect the Rays to be at least competing for the AL WC.

 

Holy crap, did I just type that? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[mls4]

Where are the Twins? Usually I expect to see them in the top half of MLB in minor-league rankings.

 

Edit: Using some research, I see they are 18th. No idea if the rankings are accurate or not, but it does surprise me.

[sheetskout]

I think the Brewers would be bumped on this list once Gamel/Gillespie/Salome get their cred. Gamel and Gillespie should both show improved power this season getting out of the FSL....

[PeaveyFury]

It suggests the brewers will fall next year, but doesn't consider the suppl. picks they will have.

 

Yeah, it's odd that they praise LaPorta as one of our top prospects, without acknowledging that he wasn't even in the system last year at this time, so we could potentially add 3-6 more high rated guys in this years' draft with the 6 picks we have in the top 2 rounds.

[ILuvDaBush]

Well the author does praisxe the overall depth of our system, inferring that there is a great amount of potential within the organization. If Braddock comes out firing and one of our many outfielders were to take the next step, we shouldn't be too bad off. Seriously, while we don't have the top 100-type prospects, we don't lack high ceilings. There is another thread where I argue that the Grand Salome could bust out and be a top 3 prospect in baseball by the end of the year. Honestly, between Jeffress/Salome/Brewer/Rogers/Ford, you have some of the higher CEILINGS in baseball. Jeffress' ceiling is obviously one of the highest in all of baseball. Brewer and Salome (I LOVE the kid's howitzer, even if it's more shotgun than rifle) have obvious defensive deficiencies but their offense plays sick for the position. Rogers is a great deal removed from the majors, but his ceiling is unquestionable. When Yo was bursting onto the national prospect scene, it was Rogers and Yo who were one and two in K's in the minors. Then...his wheels fell off and Yo went Segway. And Ford is arguably the fastest player in the minors. If only baseball were played on a track.

Thus, with a bit of maturation from our high-ceiling prospects, and a bit of luck with our newfound plethora of picks, we could easily be a top seven organization next year. Then again, if we went cheap on the picks and Rogers' arm falls off, and Jeffress has a chance meeting with Ricky Williams, and the Grand Salome can't stick behind the plate, and Ford marries Marion Jones, and Brewer is enticed by Bobby Bowden to lace up the cleats, and Braddock takes up prize fighting...well we would still have Prince, Weeks, Hart, Hardy, Braun, Yo, Parra, LaPorta, and Ned.

[pogokat]

i don't know that the brewers should be in the bottom half of the rankings right now, but i understand why the writer thinks that things might take a few years to level out...

 

the brewers, after this year's draft, should have a ton of talent in the low minors and a few good, but flawed prospects in the high minors....

 

when the brewers were at the top, they had guys like fielder, hardy, weeks, braun, hart, gallardo, etc... at the top of the chain...

 

now, the top of the chain is a slugger who is inexperienced and old, a 25 year collapse risk and a pothead (i'm being overly negative to reflect the views of a non-brewerfan)

 

to be a top ranked team, you've got to have that jay bruce...that clayton kershaw...tht evan longoria...even an adam jones...preferably a few of those guys...right now the brewers have nada ranked that high...

 

of course, tht could change...but just from a scouts point of view, the brewers are at a low point...and it may be a season or two before they are out of it...

 

of course, my take is that its pretty nice that the crew can be at a low point and still be in the middle range of farm systems

[jimmyjeromehardy7]

of course, my take is that its pretty nice that the crew can be at a low point and still be in the middle range of farm systems

that makes one believe the Brewers will be in contention for the long haul. Their system is set to reload if needed in a couple years.