Turnbow looking really good [bad]

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

He made a change to his grip and he's been getting more movement on his fastball. I think he's going to have a great year this year because we won't have to depend on him so much. Torres, Riske, and Mota can give him days off. I blame Turnbow's bad stretch at the end of 2007 on being over worked.

 

Turnbow getting attention

 

 

EDIT: Updated title - b19

[sheetswannabe]

I love it.. Turnbows gettin better, Torres says "I am feeling better than ever", Mota looks sharp, and Gagne is doing good.. Love the bullpen

[Ennder]

Movement doesn't excite me, control does. If he can throw strikes he'll be fine, unfortunately he has only been able to throw strikes for half a year at a time.

[pitchleague]

if this were the Cubs, we'd know they were setting themselves up to fail.

[Ennder]

if this were the Cubs, we'd know they were setting themselves up to fail.

 

I personally think Marmol = Turnbow, he had a very luck based season with terrible control in the second half last year.

[ELCABALLO45]

It also says in that story Gallardo threw off the mound alread http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[BrewCrewForever]

I love it.. Turnbows gettin better, Torres says "I am feeling better than ever", Mota looks sharp, and Gagne is doing good.. Love the bullpen

If these guys can all hold up and pitch well through the season that could be the difference in us getting to the postseason this year as opposed to last when the bullpen flamed out.

 

[JohnBriggs12]

"Turnbow gettin better"

 

Great. See what you can get for him. I still don't trust him in August and September.

[TerraceReserved]

"Turnbow gettin better"

 

Great. See what you can get for him. I still don't trust him in August and September.

 

In the 07 and 06, Turnbow has ERA's of 5.57 in 21 IP and 9.42 in 14 IP in Aug. and Sept.

 

In '05, he had an ERA of 1.17 in those months in 23 IP, and in '03 he had a 0.00 ERA in 13 IP.

 

In 2005 he pitched 44 innings in the first 4 months of the season, in 2006 42 innings, and 2007 47 innings. So in 2 of 3 years he was bad in the last two months and 1 year he was excellent, and he had almost exactly the same IP in all 3 years. I'm not ready to label him as a guy that will stink in Aug. and Sept. based on such a small sample of innings over the past two years, eccspecially when his past performance at that time of the year was excellent.

[BrewCrewForever]

I wouldn't trade Turnbow. I think like every pitcher he has his bad days. I think a lot of that has to do with Yost leaving him in to long sometimes and bringing him in with men on base. He has to start innings period. I think the combo of him in the 8th and Gagne in the 9th will be deadly this season, it's a gut feeling.

[lukevan]

There's no point in having any hope for Turnbow. He obviously stinks and will always stink. Let's bring someone else in that we can hate for being an above average RP.

[bjkrautk]

I'm glad to hear that D-Bow has greater control and movement on the fastball. That said, most of his problems last year started from his inability to throw his breaking pitch for strikes....forcing him to rely only on the heater.

 

It's the secondary pitch that Derrick needs to work on, IMO.

[jazzytrav]

Movement doesn't excite me, control does. If he can throw strikes he'll be fine, unfortunately he has only been able to throw strikes for half a year at a time.

As bjkrautk said, it's really his slider that he needs to be able to control. He normally has no problem throwing strikes, it's just that most hitters don't have any problem hitting a high 90's fastball right down the middle. At that point he doesn't trust his slider, and he's trying to catch the corners with a hard fastball. Without that slider, he's either giving up home runs or walks.

[logan82]

Turnbow was great at stranding inherited runners up until last year. I see no reason that he couldn't be good at stranding runners again.

[datrain711]

turnbow's problem is confidence. Just like last year, he'll be successful this year until he has a few bad outings in a row. Once that happens, he stops throwing his breaking stuff effectively because he doesn't think he can throw strikes. He sure doesn't seem to ever get hit hard.

[BrewCrewForever]

turnbow's problem is confidence.

 

Agreed. If he can have consistent confidence he can be lights out. He has to trust his stuff.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

At least we know we have options if Gagne gets hurt at closer.

[Gopher74]

There's no point in having any hope for Turnbow. He obviously stinks and will always stink. Let's bring someone else in that we can hate for being an above average RP.

Yea, this is your sarcasm, but , there are plenty of people who actually hate Turnbow for almost no reason. The guy's great the vast majority of the time, but because Yost is the only human being on the face of the Earth(and for the most part, I'm a Yost defender) who doesn't realize when he's losing it.

 

Most pitchers have bad games. It's just when he has one, it's absolutely terrible, but again, he's also very good more often than the most pitchers.

[RyGuy671]

As has been pointed out, when he's bad, he's REALLY bad. But the guy was like 3rd in the majors in holds last year, and it seems like he might actually be improving so far this spring with his mechanical adjustment. I think a lot of it is Ned knowing when to pull him. As soon as he walks a guy to start an inning, I believe you gotta yank him. Of course, then you're messing with his confidence, which is the worst thing to do with T-bow.

[Fatter than Joey]

there are plenty of people who actually hate Turnbow for almost no reason.

 

I don't know if "hate" is the right word. Turnbow's inability to locate breaking pitches is maddening though.

 

It's just when he has one, it's absolutely terrible, but again, he's also very good more often than the most pitchers.

 

He's better than the Seth McClung's and Elmer Dessens's -- but he had a lot of bad games last year.

[clancyphile]

Movement doesn't excite me, control does. If he can throw strikes he'll be fine, unfortunately he has only been able to throw strikes for half a year at a time.

A better fastball is nothing to complain about, IMHO.

 

[Ennder]

Well no I won't complain about it, but if he cannot locate his pitches he will continue to be frustrating to watch and only marginally valuable in a setup role.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

" "Turnbow gettin better"

 

Great. See what you can get for him. I still don't trust him in August and September."

 

Since luck is the overriding factor in Marmol's success, and since he's the equal of DT, then let's make that deal. Only I'm sure no one in the Cub front office, or anywhere else in the majors, would make that trade.

 

Marmol's 5 years younger, makes $3 million less, has no steroid convictions, and turned in a 1.43 ERA last year (as opposed to DT's 4.48!). CM's WHIP was 1.09 vs. DT's 1.32.

 

And when you're a reliever, it's VERY possible that you may be asked to enter a game to relieve the last pitcher...with men on base, many times with them in scoring position. With men on? CM: .472 OPS-allowed, DT: 166 points higher, at .638. with RISP? CM: .414! DT: More than DOUBLE, at .842.

 

I won't start focusing on other arcane stats to support my assertion here, because then I'd be guilty of cherry-picking. I just see a reliever, and HOPE he shuts the door, cleaning up the mess the last pitcher left him, and the comparison between these 2, is laughable. Sure, if you set up Turnbow perfectly, and have him only enter games with bases empty, then yeah, he thrives. But that's like babying Geoff Jenkins by hiding him from those nasty lefties. Only problem is, you're paying him as if he's a dependable, all-situations reliever.

 

Give me Marmol, any day!

[homer]

Yeah, based on stuff alone I'd take Marmol - age clinches the decision.

[Ennder]

Marmol's stat line doesn't look much different than Turnbows in 05 did.

Turnbow - 67.1 IP, 49 H, 64 K, 24 BB, 1.74 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.1 K/G, 3.4 BB/G, 88.1% LOB, 10.4% HR/FB, 3.32 xFIP
Marmol - 69.1 IP, 41 H, 96 K, 35 BB, 1.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 13.1 K/G, 4.8 BB/G, 91% LOB, 4.3% HR/FB, 3.63 xFIP

Marmol showed decent control in the first half of 2007 for the first time in his career. His BB/9 was a disaster in the second half. His ERA and WHIP were driven by an obscenely high LOB%, obscenely high DER(.742) and obscenely low HR/FB. None of these things are likely to repeat at the extremes of last year. Marmol is most likely going to see a 3.50+ ERA this season and it won't surprise me to see it over 4. He is an extreme flyball pitcher with poor control and as soon as people make him throw strikes his ERA is going to balloon just like it did with Turnbow in 2006/2007.

So while yeah I'd rather have him than Turnbow too my point was more that he is a Turnbow type pitcher and not the next Broxton in my opinion. Most of that ERA/WHIP last year was a mirage.