Parra needs to be in the rotation on opening day... Latest: Manny Parra, Cy Young of Spring Training (see reply #99)

[bullox]

I looked at stats across MLB this spring, and when you consider guys that have gotten a lot of work (10+ innings) and strikeouts (neighborhood of 1 per inning) and high K/BB ratio (over 3) and low whip (under 1.00) and low ERA (under 2), I think that Parra is the only one to qualify in all of those areas. So, he isn't only doing well for the brewers, he's doing better than just about everyone. Of course, some of the guys that are performing about as good as him aren't exactly Cy Young Candidates (Chan-ho Park, anyone?), but I think it still suggests he doesn't have anything to work on in AAA.

I think it suggests that he can have a decent half-month against some sub-par competition. Let's face it - not all of the hitters sent out there are going to be major leaguers. In addition, a lot of the hitters are working on hitting to the opposite field or other spots and not necessarily on winning. Granted, Parra has done better than most out there and he does have very good stuff. I almost wish that stats weren't made public for spring games. They are useless.

[homer]

"At some point, production wins out of the peripherals. I mean, what, Bush is a better pitcher than Villanueva despite the fact that when Villanueva pitchers less people score, and we win more often because he allows too many fly balls? Those can be helpful, but it's just so overboard on here at times. Those stats are used above all others. "

 

The point of using those stats is to try to gauge how a guy will do in the future. Villy is bound to regress this year because he stranded a ton of runners last year. Some people would chalk that up to 'gritty battleness' or whatever but I prefer to think the law of averages will catch up with him. It's not unreasonable to expect Villanueva to perform worse than Bush did last year.

[DrWood]

viewing ST stats as useless is a gross overstatement (many young guys make the team by what they do in ST). If a guy is striking guys out, walking few, and giving up few hits, that means something. If someone like Brandon Webb is striking guys out, walking few, and giving up a bunch of hits (which he is) it just means he's been working on getting the ball over the plate, no need to worry. My point was, Parra is doing great compared to ALL pitchers in spring training, not just the brewers' guys. My eye suggests Parra can be a dominant pitcher for numerous years (not just 1/2 month in ST). Performance helps validate my "eye".

[twobrewers]

I would just like to say - since it seems lot of people ignore this - Parra is so valuable that he should not be in the opening day rotation.

 

I would rather see him pitching for the Brewers in September & October than have to shut him down at the end of August because he has reached his innings limit.

 

I don't think anyone honestly believes Parra needs more AAA seasoning. The question is how to make the most use of the innings he is able to pitch.

[homer]

Agreed Two Brewers. Not to mention that I would rather see the Nasvhille bullpen burned during Parra's short outings in April/May than the Brewer bullpen.

[don1481]

I don't think anyone honestly believes Parra needs more AAA seasoning. The question is how to make the most use of the innings he is able to pitch.

This is exactly how I feel about Parra. I'd rather have him available down the stretch and in the playoffs rather than Liriano'd because he's been subjected to a workload far greater than what he's ever experienced and lost for not just the remainder of this season, but also 2009. I don't mean to use such an extreme example but given Parra's injury-riddled past, having him go out there from day 1 and average 6+ IP/start would most likely produce this sort of result. And as pointed out elsewhere in this thread, having Parra go on strict pitch counts and inning limits is a great way for the Brewers to burn out their bullpen, just like last year. Especially if certain other pitchers that generally can't go more than 5-and-change IP/start (*cough* Vargas *cough*) happen to also be in the rotation.

[Ennder]

Parra should start the year in the majors in the rotation. You can limit his innings in the majors and still start him as long as you know about it ahead of time. The Yankees are doing the same with Hughes, the Red Sox with Buchholz etc. It will take some work and some creativity but they can do it. Every inning he throws in the minors this year is a waste of talent and when the division is likely to come down to just a couple of games again this season it could be the difference between making and missing the playoffs.

 

I still think he starts in AAA but to me this is very different than Villanueva because of just how good a pitcher Parra is.

[Roscoe Chill]

Every inning he throws in the minors this year is a waste of talent and when the division is likely to come down to just a couple of games again this season it could be the difference between making and missing the playoffs.

 

Exactly. It's now to the point where the team needs to have the best possible roster in Milwaukee. I know the other factors at play, but it will be very frustrating if Parra doesn't break camp in the big leagues.

[don1481]

You can limit his innings in the majors and still start him as long as you know about it ahead of time. The Yankees are doing the same with Hughes, the Red Sox with Buchholz etc. It will take some work and some creativity but they can do it. Every inning he throws in the minors this year is a waste of talent and when the division is likely to come down to just a couple of games again this season it could be the difference between making and missing the playoffs.

Per Rotoworld:

 

The Red Sox plan on limiting Clay Buchholz to to 180-190 innings this season.

The Red Sox hope that some of those innings will come during the playoffs. While he will probably break camp as the team's fifth starter, there's a chance he could begin the season in Triple-A, where he could be held to a stricter innings limit. In that case, Julian Tavarez would slide in the final spot in the rotation.

Keep in mind also, though, that Buchholz pitched 119 and 148 IP over the past two seasons.

 

As far as Hughes is concerned...

 

Per Yahoo!:

 

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, and New York Daily News baseball columnist Bill Madden, there has never been a World Series team with two rookies making a minimum of just 25 starts apiece, let alone 30-34! When that number is scaled back to 20, only four teams have reached the World Series. Madden reported the Yankees are hoping for 25-30 starts from Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes.

...

"Because of the pitch-count issue, I really can't put a number on how many starts (Hughes and Kennedy) will make," said Yankee manager Joe Girardi.

Assuming 6 IP/start, those numbers are still lower (150 for 25 and 180 for 30) than what the Sox want to do with Buchholz. Hughes has pitched 146 and 110 IP the past two seasons. And if the Yankees are intending on pitching those two for less than a full season in the rotation, they're going to have to get starts from other pitchers as well, outside of their 1, 2, and 3 spots. Plus... the Yankees actually have enough pitchers capable of consistently going six-plus in the 1,2, and 3 spots that the bullpen shouldn't be run into the ground.

 

Basically, that's the approach the Brewers should be taking IMO with Parra. Get him 20-25 starts (including playoffs) so in 2009 he can contribute fully. "Win now" doesn't mean "sacrifice the future for the present." Such myopic stances usually do not end well for teams.

[brewjihad]

Parra is so valuable that he should not be in the opening day rotation.

 

I just did a fist pump when I read that. Perfect line.

 

It will take some work and some creativity but they can do it.

 

I don't trust Ned Yost to limit Manny's innings. I'd be way too afraid that he'd find out how good he is- and then wreck him with long starts in May, June, and July.

 

The Yankees are doing the same with Hughes, the Red Sox with Buchholz

 

Hughes pitched quite a bit in the majors last year. The Red Sox have Terry Francona- who, unlike Yost, I would trust with a young pitcher.

[homer]

Nice post, Don. It's a difficult situation to be certain. Parra is definitely one of the best 5 starters the Brewers have right now and I kind of want to see what he can do for the big league team, but there are a lot of different factors at stake here. Tough decision any way you slice it.

[Roscoe Chill]

Well of course, the idea behind starting Parra at AAA and having him ready for the playoffs is under the assumption that the Brewers actually make the playoffs. You don't trust Ned Yost to limit Parra's innings. I don't trust Ned Yost to know when to say when on Chris Capuano's miserable outings if it happens that way. You don't have to sacrifice the future for the present by having your best players play on the major league team. I think FORTUNATELY, Parra is making it impossible to justify having him start at AAA at age 25. No disrespect, but tons of guys around here said there was absolutely no way Gallardo would be pitching as deep in to last season as well. Frankly, they wouldn't have been even close to playoff contention without Gallardo's contributions PAST the time when a lot of you had him shut down. The same could go for Parra as well. If Ned Yost can't comprehend overworking guys, then maybe Ted Simmons can.

 

On the flip side, I'll trade Parra starting at AAA, Capuano stinking up the joint every time out, and the Brewers getting off to just a slow enough start where Yost gets sacrificed.

[Ennder]

Basically, that's the approach the Brewers should be taking IMO with Parra. Get him 20-25 starts (including playoffs) so in 2009 he can contribute fully. "Win now" doesn't mean "sacrifice the future for the present." Such myopic stances usually do not end well for teams.

 

I agree, but those 20-25 starts should all be in the majors, they do no good in the minors. If that means making him the #5 and skipping starts occassionally or putting him on a strict pitch count every game and carrying an extra long RP to make up for it, whatever. There are ways to limit his innings and keep him in the majors as long as you are planning for it.

 

People are also correct that he is fragile, if you want to just play the odds most likely he'll be hurt before he reaches his innings limit. I'd rather use up those innings in the majors than the minors.

 

At the very least he should cover for Gallardo until he comes back, then if they are completely intent of putting him in the minors he can go down when we have our #2 back.

[homer]

Comparing Gallardo to Parra is apples to oranges. Gallardo didn't have an injury history.

[don1481]

You don't have to sacrifice the future for the present by having your best players play on the major league team. I think FORTUNATELY, Parra is making it impossible to justify having him start at AAA at age 25. No disrespect, but tons of guys around here said there was absolutely no way Gallardo would be pitching as deep in to last season as well. Frankly, they wouldn't have been even close to playoff contention without Gallardo's contributions PAST the time when a lot of you had him shut down. The same could go for Parra as well. If Ned Yost can't comprehend overworking guys, then maybe Ted Simmons can.

Here's the thing with Gallardo's past few years:

2005: 121 IP

2006: 155 IP

2007: 188 IP

188 IP was what a lot of us were saying would be around his "absolute safe max" IP last year, so honestly... I'm not terribly surprised he pitched that much.

Manny Parra over the same timespan:

2005: 91 IP

2006: 86 IP

2007: 133 IP

 

Realistically, Parra should be around 160 IP total, especially given his injury past plus the significant jump in 2007 versus 2005-2006. Let's say, for the sake of argument, Parra's limited to 4 IP/start through May in AAA, making 5 starts in April and 4 in May. The last two starts in May are 5 and 6 IP, to finish "stretching him out." That burns through 20 in April and 27 in May, giving him 113 to get through the rest of the season. Let's say Parra manages to average 6.1 IP/start over the remainder of the season. That gives him about 18 starts as the #5 starter. By comparison, Gallardo got 17 starts (in 20 appearances) beginning on 6/18, throwing 108.2 IP for the Brewers. Gallardo pitched 100 IP as a starter for the Brewers last year in those 17 starts, averaging 5.88 IP/start, so maybe I'm being a tad optimistic with Parra averaging 6.1 IP/start but it still shows how the Brewers could "save" Parra for the stretch run.

 

On the flip side, I'll trade Parra starting at AAA, Capuano stinking up the joint every time out, and the Brewers getting off to just a slow enough start where Yost gets sacrificed.

As much as I dislike The Over-Caffeinated One, I think the only way he gets fired is if the Brewers are all but out of it come the All Star Break. Like it or not, we're stuck with him for probably this season; I don't see the Brewers making an in-season switch if they're staying within striking distance. But this is a discussion for another thread, so I'll stop here.

[TooLiveBrew]

With the depth of the 'pen, Manny could be limited better than Villavueva was last season. He wouldn't be the first-best option there like Carlos became. Have him in as a LOOGY or mop-up role, then stretch him out in AAA, and call him back up for the rotation.

[don1481]

Have him in as a LOOGY or mop-up role, then stretch him out in AAA, and call him back up for the rotation.

I can see him in a mop-up role to begin the season but... as a LOOGY, I was under the impression from other discussions here that Parra needed longer to warm up in part because of his injury history. In general, if that's true about Parra needing longer to warm up, I'd shy away from any bullpen spot that requires him needing to get ready in a hurry.

 

[TheCrew07]

LOOGY? Seriously? I'm on the record numerous times that I view the LOOGY as the most useless pitcher in the bullpen. How do you get value at 1/3 of an inning at a time when most players get themselves out 70% of the time?

 

He's a starting pitcher but they could limit his innings as a LOOGY? Sorry to crack on you TLB but that's such an incredible waste of his talent I'm really surprised it was posted. I have no issues with him in the bullpen early in the year to cut down the innings, but if Parra stays healthy he's a SP at the MLB level, how do you ever stretch him out for the rotation as a LOOGY?

 

As long as it came up, I truly hope the Brewers don't waste a roster spot on a LOOGY this year.

[lukevan]

They've already got Shouse as a LOOGY and having a second one would've come in handy at times in 2007. Still, I see Parra in either the AAA rotation or MLB starting rotation.

[TooLiveBrew]

Shouse got plenty of work last year, and I said he could be used as a LOOGY and a mop-up role.

[don1481]

Shouse got plenty of work last year, and I said he could be used as a LOOGY and a mop-up role.

Having Parra in a LOOGY role could seriously tax his arm. See also: Villanueva, Carlos as Ned's "bail-me-out" pick out of the 'pen last year. That put a ton of strain on his arm that was different than the strain of starting. Hence his rather sudden ineffectiveness as a reliever.

I'd rather not put Parra in any sort of situation where the risk of him having his arm blow up yet again is significantly increased.

[Time for a Miller]

I think it's pretty evident that Parra is one of the top five SP the Brewers have. However, he has options so put him in AAA. The drop off won't be that great and we will need him soon enough anyways. There will probably be an injury to one of the pitchers in the starting rotation before Mid-May. I was wondering if anybody knows how late into the year the Brewers and other teams have stuck with their original five starters and when the last time a team made it all year with the same 5 guys.