Parra needs to be in the rotation on opening day... Latest: Manny Parra, Cy Young of Spring Training (see reply #99)

[DrWood]

just for my information,

for the people that want to send parra down,

do they consider him one of the three top starters in ability?

If they are like me and think he's no worse than third, and a whole lot better than the fourth, do they still want to send him down?

[1992casey]

For now, yes. If he forces the team's hand with a Gallardoesque Nashville performance, that bridge can be crossed when it happens.

[TooLiveBrew]

For being a doctor, you sure ignore health concerns with Parra. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Manny is the most obvious first choice of someone to go to AAA. He's young, and needs to stay healthy this season - first & foremost. As others mention, his PC can be monitored much better at Nashville. There's simply no reason for him to be asked to be an MLB veteran when he isn't. Your notion that there's simply no way in the universe that he'd pitch more than 165 innings is just a hunch imo. As posed before, what happens if/when he's at 165 IP in mid-September, and is needed for a playoff run? That's of course assuming that he'd be able to make it through 165 MLB IP. Given his injury history, I don't want to roll the dice when his workload can be limited most effectively at AAA, allowing for a fresh-armed Parra callup at the first injury or simply by mid-season if by some fluky reason no SP gets hurt.

 

In terms of ability, I don't think Manny at this point is that much better (if at all) than the grouping of Cap/Bush/Villy. Plus, to go further on the IP/durability concerns, the 132 2/3 IP he mustered in 2007 is his highest IP total since 2003 in low-A ball (138 2/3 IP). Great care needs to be taken with Manny's left arm.

[Ennder]

The track record that has people wanting Capuano in the rotation was compiled in 2005 and half of 2006

 

That of course isn't really true. From August of 2006 until his groin injury in 2007 he had 23 starts with a 4.19 ERA, 6.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and 1.06 HR/9.

 

His career numbers are 4.39 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 3 BB/9, 1.28 HR/9.

 

This notion that he has stunk since the all star break of 2006 is just absurd. He really had issues after the injury last year.

[DrWood]

If Parra's elbow falls off after pitching 30 innings, I'd rather those innings were helping the brewers rather than the sounds.

I think it unlikely he has a severe injury, though.

The 165 innings as a #5 starter isn't just my opinion, it's based on looking at stats for several years.

[TooLiveBrew]

Right, but Parra's never been able to manage anywhere near that total, and then if there's postseason you're talking completely uncharted territory (if you weren't already) for an IP total. Manny hasn't proven that he can handle any of this.

[DrWood]

maybe the rockies will let us use their humidor? we can keep him all dewy fresh in there. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Mr QL]

I don't know why we would start guys that aren't as good just because they've been in the league a bit. I don't think Capuano, Suppan, Vargas, or Bush are as good as Villanueva and maybe and probably Parra. I'd rather take a chance on these young guys than the same ole junk. I could see the justification for Parra being down in Nashville but I think he'd be more valuable here. Only other LH starter is Cappy and he sucks. I just hope it doesn't take as long this season to figure that out.

[mletto157]

I think the major discrepency here is what people consider being skilled or not. I think most people that are advocating for Parra and Villy in the rotation opening day are refering to their skill level more as their potential. And I think we can all agree that the potential of Manny and Villy is definitely greater than that of Vargas, Cappy, Bush most likely. Arguements can be made for Cappy and Bush, but we've seen what they can do... so potential wouldn't be the correct word. In the case of Manny and Villy... neither of them have proven in the major league level that they can handle a full season of innings and perform. We know they can perform at a high level... we've seen that... but no one knows about a full season.

 

So - that being said... I can definitely see a push to have each of them start the season in the minors, get in a regulator rotation and limit their innings. That way when they're needed, they'll be ready immediately when the call is placed. I mean, we haven't even seen if Parra can handle a full season of innings in the minors... so why would we try and test that right away in the majors? The smart thing to do would be to start him in the minors, let him get some starts and get on a good rotation, and bring him up when the need is there later in the season.

 

I just don't see how you can argue against that... proven starters on opening day is the way to go because we know they can handle the grind of a full season. If Ned started both of them on opening day all you would be happy... but then come august when they're both warn out or hurt... you'd be calling for Ned's head saying "you should have had them on an inngs count, you should have started them in AAA, you should have, you should have, you should have..."

[DrWood]

the argument in my mind is that Parra is head and shoulders better. He can excel right now in the majors. He's got the stuff and makeup. He's wasted too much time on minor league DL.

While I think Villanueva can be a very solid middle of the rotation starter for many years, I don't think he represents a significantly better chance to win right now than bush and cappy (and I expect at least one and probably both to bounce back a good bit).

Some people love Villy and will think Ned and Doug are idiots if he isn't in the rotation. They will have a kiniption if he starts at Nashville. While I think he's clearly one of the 12 best pitchers, I wouldn't fret too much if he spent a month in Nashville. One of those older relievers will prove to be useless or get injured soon enough.

So it really all depends on how you rank the 8 starters (I think we can come to a consensus that Sheets and Gallardo are the top two and Vargas is #8). Placing the other 5 is a case of constant argument. An argument that seems to get us nowhere.

[TooLiveBrew]

the argument in my mind is that Parra is head and shoulders better. He can excel right now in the majors. He's got the stuff and makeup. He's wasted too much time on minor league DL.

 

But it's not that he "wasted" time on the DL, it's that he hasn't been able to stay off it. That's part of how 'good'/effective a player is, too. There's just no way Parra is better quite to the extent you're arguing imo, and when you factor injuries/injury history in, he's got to come out at least a step behind Cap/Bush. If you can't stay on the mound, you can't be called "head & shoulders better."

[DrWood]

If you have one guy that can make 25 starts and have an era of 3.3

and two other guys that can make 35 starts and have an era of 4.95,

you make sure the first guy gets his 25 starts. Period. It's not like you can't have those other two guys on the roster, or move them up when needed.

[Ennder]

I think Parra is pretty much the 3rd best starter on the team. I don't think they'll actually go with him though.

 

While I'm not all that high on Villanueva, Bush and Capuano both struggled in the 2nd half last year and both have looked pretty miserable so far this spring. I think Villanueva should at least be in the running for the 5th starter spot. We aren't talking about guys that are so good they 'have' to be in the rotation. I just disagree that he is a clearcut step above them. If they turn it around and look good later in spring I won't lose sleep if they start over him this year.

[DrWood]

just wanted to say one more thing. If parra was some fragile thing, more is the reason to make use of him now before he shatters.

 

I happen to believe most of that is behind him. This is not the spring of 2007 which followed a year where he had severe restrictions placed on him. His restrictions last year were minor or nonexistant; he just happened to break a thumb in a freak accident that shut him down.

His restrictions in 2008 are such that he isn't likely to reach them.

[TooLiveBrew]

If you have one guy that can make 25 starts and have an era of 3.3

and two other guys that can make 35 starts and have an era of 4.95,

you make sure the first guy gets his 25 starts. Period. It's not like you can't have those other two guys on the roster, or move them up when needed.

 

I respect what you're saying about Cap/Bush not being lost & gone forever, but I think it's a stretch to say that Parra would be that good over 25 starts (ignoring of course inherent problems with ERA as a pitcher's stat - just a comparative/relative tool here). He just hasn't done enough to indicate that we should expect that from him imo.

 

It's not as cut & dried / black & white. You can't objectively handicap two mid-4 ERA guys as "4.95", and you can't categorize Parra as an ace-in-waiting when he hasn't even been able to stay healthy enough for 150 IP in any of his 6 minor-leauge seasons.

 

 

EDIT: If parra was some fragile thing, more is the reason to make use of him now before he shatters.

If? I understand your point that he appears to be past certain injuries from his past, but to me he's got to prove his ability to stay on the mound before I hand him a serious rotation spot on a contending team. I know the injury last year was fluky, but he's had shoulder trouble, which can always recur. I don't want to throw him to the wolves & hope for the best - we have 2009 & onward to consider, too (as in, post-Sheets)

[markedman5]

Cappy got pounded again today.

 

6 runs all earned in 2 plus innings.

[sgtcluels]

It's just the start of week 2. Before we jump the gun we need a little larger of a sample size.

 

Granted he did hit a wall and got rocked, but Parra in is coming of fairly recent shoulder issues. And stretching him out slowly sounds like a good idea to me.

[Biestie1]

Parra as a 5th starter wouldn't be expected to throw over 200 innings, but even in that 5th spot, if he stays healthy, he'd be in uncharted waters by season's end. I'd be inclined to bring him up later in the year, and still have him for the playoffs.

[logan82]

I can't wait till next year when we are having this same discussion about LaPorta.

[pogokat]

it would be much different with laporta...there's no injury concern with giving a guy ab's

[logan82]

No the discussion will be that we shouldn't pick up Cameron's option so we have a spot for LaPorta. That or we should keep LaPorta as a backup to get him at bats vs we should keep him playing regular in AAA and keep his service time down.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Isn't LaPorta already 24 years old? He's gotta be a Brewer next year to start the season if he's ready defensively.

[logan82]

Isn't LaPorta already 24 years old? He's gotta be a Brewer next year to start the season if he's ready defensively.

See what I mean. LaPorta is going to be ready, but we will have depth enough to justify keeping him in AAA. I think this is a good thing. We are going to start having guys in AAA ready to play in the majors with no place to play them. It is going to start coming down to whether we want to keep guys playing everyday or bring them up to sit the bench and have their arby clocks start. Much like Villanueva this year. Do we want him to be the long guy out of the pen sitting for 9 out of 10 days and doing nothing because he is one of our 12-13 best pitchers, or is it better to leave him in AAA pitching every 5 days? Sorry to sidetrack the thread.

[Gopher74]

what an absolute horrible reason to start him in Nashville. Seriously...let's put him in Nashville because we can??? I'd rather dump Vargas and hope to avoid injuries than have him in the rotation and Villanueva in the minors waiting for someone to get hurt. Villanueva has had nothing but success in the majors, so lets stop predicting what he's supposed to do based on what scouts say about him and let him pitch until he proves he is no good.

Not to mention the fact that I'm pretty sure other starters have options as well.

 

At some point, production wins out of the peripherals. I mean, what, Bush is a better pitcher than Villanueva despite the fact that when Villanueva pitchers less people score, and we win more often because he allows too many fly balls? Those can be helpful, but it's just so overboard on here at times. Those stats are used above all others.

 

I totally agree with you though. He wasn't even in the top 30 in the Brewers list of prospects a couple years ago. So what? Do things like that really mean more than actual quantifiable production? It sure shouldn't.

[DrWood]

I looked at stats across MLB this spring, and when you consider guys that have gotten a lot of work (10+ innings) and strikeouts (neighborhood of 1 per inning) and high K/BB ratio (over 3) and low whip (under 1.00) and low ERA (under 2), I think that Parra is the only one to qualify in all of those areas. So, he isn't only doing well for the brewers, he's doing better than just about everyone. Of course, some of the guys that are performing about as good as him aren't exactly Cy Young Candidates (Chan-ho Park, anyone?), but I think it still suggests he doesn't have anything to work on in AAA.