Parra needs to be in the rotation on opening day... Latest: Manny Parra, Cy Young of Spring Training (see reply #99)

[endaround]

We are also concerned with next year and the year after and so on as much as this year.

 

......in his one year he was far more consistent than Bush has ever been.

I'm not sure you understand what that word means.

Pre-All Star Break

60 Innings 55K 24 BB 5 HR 2.83 ERA

 

Post All Star Break:

54.0 Innings 44K 29 BB 11 HR 5.17 ERA

 

[logan82]

paul253 wrote:

If you can honestly say you'd rather have Vargas on the roster than Villanueva than I can honestly say you're nuts!

The role that Vargas and Villanueva will end up fighting over is the long relief role. Why should we put a promissing young pitcher in a position where he pitches once every two weeks. It would be much better to send him to AAA and have him start every 5th day. As others have stated, we are probably going to need one or two extra starters at some point. Leaving him on a regular 5 day rotation in AAA is the best way to keep him ready for that eventuality.

[lukevan]

Moving Villy to AAA and hanging onto Vargas gives the Brewers insurance against catasrophic injury and lets them hold onto Vargas and possibly get something worthwhile in a trade. Vargas would likely only see Dessens type outings anyway, and as we get into the season, teams will need starting pitching.

[bork]

Some article mentioned that Yost is seriously considering a 13 man pitching staff, since the starting position players will be playing so many games (few games for the bench).

 

Could that mean Villy or Parra getting a spot over Dillion?

[TooLiveBrew]

Possibly, but I think Joe's shown what he's fully capable of doing. He's a perfect PH, he can play some IF & OF, I just think he's too versatile to stash in AAA (if he has options left).

[logan82]

Some article mentioned that Yost is seriously considering a 13 man pitching staff, since the starting position players will be playing so many games (few games for the bench).

My guess would be McClung getting the spot as he is also out of options, or Stetter. More likley Stetter as Yost have talked about keeping 2 lefties out of the pen. I think a 2nd LOOGY is a waste of a roster spot, the 1st is somewhat as well as I would reather have a lefty who can also face righties but I digress.

[paul253]

Why should we put a promissing young pitcher in a position where he pitches once every two weeks.

 

Why should we put him in the minors when he's already had success at the major league level?

 

Vargas is the 8th best starter. Yes, if 3 starters go down at the same time, we're going to need him but is it really worth keeping him on the MLB roster just in case 3 starters get hurt at the same time? Plus, if all he is going to be pitching are the Dessens type innings, then does it really make a difference if it is him or someone else, say Zach Jackson? Dessens last year is what Vargas is this year..a waste of space who should only pitch if they are down by 7 in the 3rd inning.

 

Villanueva, overall, put up very good numbers last season. He pitched a lot early on last season out of the bullpen, so its not surprising he wore down after awhile. However, he put up tremendous at the end of the season when he started. I think its a bad idea not to use your five best starters and Villanueva is one of the five best.

[logan82]

paul253 wrote:

Why should we put him in the minors when he's already had success at the major league level?

I guess I am just of the opinion that we should keep players who have a shot at helping us in the future playing regular time so they stay sharp and letting a less talented pitcher sit and warm the bench.

[fondybrewfan]

I am not a huge fan of the article in the Journal Sentinel this morning. Yost said it would be very hard to supplant the guys who have a history with the Brewers (Most notably Cappy, Bush, and Vargas). He insists its an open competition but it seems to me that it clearly isnt. Yost and/or Melvin are clearly favoring guys with track records all be it very mediocre track records over our un proven young guys like Parra and Villenueva (How exactly is he unproven anyways?). He said Suppan and Sheets are locks and whenever Gallardo gets back hell be a lock as well. I just don't like how crappy Bush has pitched so far in spring training, if he continues to pitch like this I really dont understand the logic behinf putting him in the rotation if the Brewers really are in "Win Now" Mode. I think I would be fine with Parra in AAA for a couple weeks but having Villy down there would be unacceptable. As of opening day the rotation should be Sheets, Suppan, Villenueva, Capuano, and Vargas/Bush in the 5 spot until Gallardo comes back. Then hopefully a pitcher gets hurt on another team and we can ship off one of Bush, Vargas, or Capuano, then we can bring Parra up and have a rotation of Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Villenueva, and Parra with ther SP losers in the bullpen

[Ennder]

I guess I'm just not sold on Villanueva just yet that I think he is one of the best 5 starters on the team. 4.2 BB/9 last year and a 47 FB% could lead to a pretty pedestrian stat line if he repeats it. His xERA was 4.50 last year and a lot of that work was in the bullpen. It was only 4.13 in the first half before he supposedly got tired. His ERA has been driven by BABIP and LOB% and that just really scares me until he proves he can do that long term because it is extremely rare for a pitcher to be able to keep up those numbers outside of a great defensive team or an extreme pitchers park. He certainly could be one of the best 5 starters, I just don't think it is a sure thing at all.

 

Having said that Bush was really pretty bad in the 2nd half last year, his first half was luck based but the second half all of his peripherals slipped. He hasn't looked very good this spring yet so I don't think he should be handed a rotation spot either.

[Tbadder]

I think it's relatively simple. Villy starts. Parra needs to have one more excellent 1/2 season at AAA. If that happens then he goes into the rotation. Bush, Cappy, and Vargas--if any two of those are long term starters then I don't believe the Brewers are very serious about winning the division.

 

Putting Villy in the pen is a recipe for disaster I think. I believe it's harder on a young guy's arm and the less predictable innings don't allow a pitcher to build up muscle memory, etc.. Given a solid routinue I think that starters can build up their arms and protect them better than in an overused bullpen. In an underutilized pen I don't know if the same could be said. An excessive amount of warming up (especially in a Yost-coached team) is a real detriment.

[Fatter than Joey]

Yost and/or Melvin are clearly favoring guys with track records all be it very mediocre track records over our un proven young guys like Parra and Villenueva

 

I think the idea here, is that they are going to make decisions based on a larger sample of work than a handful of innings in Arizona. Dave Bush is not going to lose his job, if Zach Jackson pitches 30 IP and gives up 2 ER. (or whoever) -- plus guys like Mota, Torres etc. that they are paying $3M for are going to automatically get a chance to fail in the regular season regardless of their performance in ST (unless they are hurt).

 

I think a misconception is that jobs are won and lost at ST. I think perhaps Bush could lose a job to Vargas, or Gross could lose a job to Kapler, but not to someone that isn't an "established" MLB pitcher.

[giffted1]

I think I would be fine with Parra in AAA for a couple weeks but having Villy down there would be unacceptable.

Those are my thoughts as well. I'm not sure if there's anything more Villy can do to show he deserves a spot in the rotation. He's pitched well when he's gotten a chance to start and is doing well this spring. If Claudio Vargas makes this team and Villy is sent to AAA I'll be sick. I know it's smart to try to prepare for the worst and stockpile as much pitching as you can in your system. I also think you try to put your best guys on the big league team. Putting two promising starters in AAA, and having two guys in the rotation who are hoping to bounce back after rough seasons just doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I would like to keep Bush and Capuano (one in the pen, one in the rotation), but I see no reason why Vargas should break camp with the team unless another starter is traded or injured. He isn't good, and we shouldn't be sending better pitchers to AAA to keep him.

[DrWood]

A 5th starter will usually have under 30 starts and 160 innings. I don't think there is any reason to worry about him going over 165 innings, unless he is putting up ROY numbers, and if he is, don't you want him to be doing that in MIL rather than NASH? They can always close him down for a start or two.

Let's just say for a second that the Brewers win the division and Parra is on a hot streak through August and September, and hits 165 innings before the playoffs start. Then what do you do?

 

Simply put, the season is a marathon rather than a sprint.

 

That sums it up very well. Parra will be a major contributor this year- just maybe not until July or so.

 

 

simply put, there is no better place to limit Parra's innings than in Milwaukee. As a 5th starter he just IS NOT going to surpass 165 innings (also the reason why Buchholz is going to be the 5th guy in BOS) UNLESS he is just outstanding (ROY, All-star), and you CAN NOT say you wouldn't want that production in milwaukee. Plenty of guys have been closed down during a pennant chase, if you have to do it.

 

Granted, it depends on how you value the other starters. I happen to think that Sheets, Gallardo and Parra are far above everyone else. Then comes Suppan, just because you can count on the innings from him. Then comes Bush, Capuano and Villanueva. Then comes Vargas who won't give you a lot of innings nor will he give you great production.

[JJHardy7]

simply put, there is no better place to limit Parra's innings than in Milwaukee.

 

It's not just limiting his innings. In Nashville, Parra can get regular work if the Brewers are looking for it and there is a better place to limit the innings -- the minor leagues. Nashville can take him out after 5 innings if the game is tied or if they're up by 5 runs.

 

I'm really high on Parra, but it's not the end of the world if he starts in the minors or CV even too. I think a lot of this is just positioning the Brewers to trade one of the veterans. If they came out and said, Sheets, Suppan, Yo, CV, and Parra are in the rotation all of a sudden Bush, Vargas, and Cappy lose some trade value. There simply isn't room to keep all three on the 25 man if they're not starters and teams know they could get one of them for nothing if the Brewers DFA one of them.

[endaround]

They don't need to be DFA'd. Again the only one out of options is Vargas. Capuano and Bush can be optioned down. The only difference is they will still make $3.75 and $2.5 million in AAA and you'll have them spending a year of their prime in Nashville

[JJHardy7]

They don't need to be DFA'd. Again the only one out of options is Vargas. Capuano and Bush can be optioned down. The only difference is they will still make $3.75 and $2.5 million in AAA and you'll have them spending a year of their prime in Nashville

 

Isn't that essentially the same thing though (I know not literally, but in the sense that they probably won't be in the minors)? I don't think there's anyway they send Cappy and/or Bush to the minors and the Brewers are just trying to keep their value high in regards to letting them go for next to nothing.

[1992casey]

Bush and Capuano are in an unusual group that fall under an obscure rule: they can be optioned provided they clear revocable waivers.

[JohnBriggs12]

The track record that has people wanting Capuano in the rotation was compiled in 2005 and half of 2006. The theory being, he was a pretty good starter not too long ago so he's capable of being that again. But do you want him there even if he's shown no signs of having regained that form to this point? And can't he work on things in Nashville too? So he's paid a lot, isn't it better he finds himself in the minors than he struggles more in the majors?

 

As for Bush and Vargas, has either shown he is any better than a decent 5th starter or a bad 4th starter? Both have logged a fair number of major league starts and are in their late 20's beyond where any improvement is likely. Yet Parra (based primarily on stuff) and Villanueva (based on perfomance as a starter in 12 starts over 2 seasons) show every indication that they can perform at the level of a solid number 3. And really though he's guaranteed a spot because of his contract, does anyone think Suppan is any better than a reliable 4th starter?

 

Depth is nice to have but no team can win divisions if their two top starters don't stay healthy for most of a season anyway no matter how many 5th starters you have. Depth can keep you around .500 but isn't that no longer the goal? To be big winners, the Brewers need to think on the scale that they can take risks. They should go for 90 something wins and risk losing a few more than go for 86 wins but assure themselves of 80.

 

Finally about Villanueva's stuff. He's got 4 major league pitches. His fastball is average, but when he spots it, it sets up all 3 of his other pitches. Because he has 4 pitches, he's much better suited to start.

[TooLiveBrew]

The track record that has people wanting Capuano in the rotation was compiled in 2005 and half of 2006.

 

Wow. How many times do you want to have the Capuano argument? Each time it's like you've never encountered the counter-argument. You've made this statement so many times, just to have it refuted... yet here it is again. Defense has no impact on pitching! Bullpen support has nothing to do with Cappy's WOAHs from 2007! Bad luck means a pitcher is no longer skillful!

 

Bush is definitely better than "a bad 4th starter", but you've had that argument before, too. Do you make these comments to instigate?

 

Man, you've had the Parra & Villy arugments before, too. Villy definitely does not have 4 plus pitches. He has an average FB, a plus CU, and some so-so breaking stuff. Villy is no better suited than Bush or Cappy, but what's the use - you've been told this before.

[TerraceReserved]

As for Bush and Vargas, has either shown he is any better than a decent 5th starter or a bad 4th starter?

 

Yes. Bush is colossally better than Vargas, and has 3rd starter capabilities. Vargas on the other hand is nothing more than a 5th starter. I think full potential for Bush is a sub-4 ERA, and Vargas right around 5, or high 4 ERA.

[JonnyLungs]

To me, Vargas is nothing more than a reliever. First, he's not that good. Second, he rarely gets past the 5th or 6th inning.

 

I wish he'd just be converted to relief.... for somebody else. I'm fairly confident somebody else could step into the 8th starter role just fine. And for cheaper.

[bjkrautk]

simply put, there is no better place to limit Parra's innings than in Milwaukee. As a 5th starter he just IS NOT going to surpass 165 innings (also the reason why Buchholz is going to be the 5th guy in BOS) UNLESS he is just outstanding (ROY, All-star), and you CAN NOT say you wouldn't want that production in milwaukee. Plenty of guys have been closed down during a pennant chase, if you have to do it.

 

Granted, it depends on how you value the other starters. I happen to think that Sheets, Gallardo and Parra are far above everyone else. Then comes Suppan, just because you can count on the innings from him. Then comes Bush, Capuano and Villanueva. Then comes Vargas who won't give you a lot of innings nor will he give you great production.

I understand your general point, but the number of innings is only half of the problem. You're not taking pitch count into consideration. If Parra is limited to 90-100 pitches per appearance....and has to burn through those pitches in 5 innings, it puts additional stress on the bullpen.

 

Granted, guys like Bush and Vargas have had their share of short starts, but a manager is much more likely to leave a veteran in there to 'take one for the team' than a younger player with upside whose confidence is more likely to be shaken by getting cuffed around.

[homer]

re: Parra's innings

 

Two things:

 

1) I'd like to see his innings controlled so he can be as strong in August as he is in May. He's never been stretched out over a whole season and fatigue may factor in.

2) I'd rather his innings be controlled in the minors so the Brewers aren't forced to use up more bullpen innings early in the year.

[hauser42]

Villy is a nice pitcher, but I'm not has high on him as most. He had a good bit of luck last year whan he was a starter. He gave up a good number of baserunners that happen to not score. He starts letting those runners cross the plates and he is just a normal player. Vill is getting a lot of glory for a little success he has had.

 

Parra should start the season in the minors so he can get some experience and innings under his belt. There is no need to rush him to fulltime starter at the majors. Team has a group of starters close to his talent and without options like stated before no reason to give up the pitching depth this team has by having to move a guy when we have options to keep all of them.