Parra needs to be in the rotation on opening day... Latest: Manny Parra, Cy Young of Spring Training (see reply #99)

[Milltownhooker]

luke, I can't see Vargas being a brewer past March. He doesn't fit unless the crew have a huge rash of injuries. I'd put Bush in the pen & use him for junk inngs or spot starts strictly.

[rluzinski]

Cappy post all star break 06' (1and 8 w/ a 5.17 ERA), 07 (5 and 12, 5.10). He did have a decent stretch in there, but those are not good national league numbers no matter how you slice it.

 

The point is, it's not fair to say, "If you take out the part of the season in 2006 that Cappy did well, he did poorly." You can't select your endpoints to bolster stastical evidence. And as Ennder pointed out, your claim that Cappy has been consistently bad for a season and a half isn't even true.

[Thurston Fluff]

Ennder I think sometimes you have to take into account the way numbers get built. Cappy put up good numbers in the first half and declined in the second half since he got here . If that happens once or twice it could be considered luck or random but when it happens year after year it's a pattern that will likely repeat itself. I like Cappy and think he's above average but if I had to put my house on his number post allstar break I'd have to take that history into account. Averages don't really take into account repeating patterns very well.

[paul253]

I just want to know, barring a really bad spring, how we can justify throwing Villanueva in the bullpen or Nashville. Last year he easily outperformed Bush, Capuano, and Vargas. I'm sorry, I don't agree with saving him so we can have more depth if ii means starting some pitchers who are inferior. The 2 or 3 game difference in wins we would get from him as opposed to Bush or Vargas may determine whether or not we're in the playoffs. You start your 5 best pitchers period. If injuries come up, you deal with them. I'm not suggesting we trade 3 of our 8 starters to get down to 5. You get rid of one, Vargas, who is the worst of the bunch and shouldn't even be on this roster right now.

[Ennder]

But again it is a tough thing to read. In 2004 his 'bad second half' was just an injury, same with 2007 in my opinion.

 

2006 he was good every other month, bad every other month. Is that really a pitcher who wore down or one that was inconsistent all year? His ERA by month was 2.36, 4.38, 2.57, 5.94, 2.32, 6.39 and his OPS+ against was 40, 116, 78, 153, 53, 140.

 

2005 he did wear down for sure, but again in that season we were starting him extra to try to get him to 20 wins which was a huge mistake by Yost(go figure). First year of pitching 200 IP and Yost decides to go out of his way to push him in September to reach some silly number of wins.

 

I'm much more worried about his career long issue the 3rd time through the order than with the 'fading late thing' which I don't think is even really true. I think Capuano needs to win his spot still but I just think people are really misreading what type of pitcher he has been because they are looking at weird splits instead of actually looking at the body of work.

[lukevan]

2 or 3 game difference in wins we would get from him as opposed to Bush or Vargas may determine whether or not we're in the playoffs.

 

That's highly debatable, however. Bush could be worth 2-3 wins over what Villy gives us this season. Bush & Villy project very similarly.

[JonnyLungs]

Anybody heard how hard Capuano is throwing in Spring Training so far? Keith Law is very down on Capuano because he said he was throwing around 83 MPH last year. That's Brian Shouse territory. A guy like Capuano simply cannot lose velocity and be effective unless he has Jamie Moyer-like control. It could very well have been affected by his labrum injury in the non throwing shoulder.

 

We can look at Capuano's FIP all we want, but if he hasn't regained any velocity, we're not even really looking at the same pitcher anymore. I'm usually a pretty strong stats guy, but something needs to be said about Cappy throwing Brian Shouse fastballs up there.

[BrewCrewForever]

I would like to not see Parra in the pen. I want him to continue to start. If that means in AAA that is fine with me.

[Klements Bratwurst]

Regarding Capuano, is there a website out there that archives the game day info like you get on mlb.com about what kind of pitch was thrown and the speed of the pitch for all the games in a season? I am curious to check these over to see if indeed Capuano was only throwing it up there in the lower 80's as has been suggested in this thread as well as in another thread. I would be curious to see if this is indeed true, as I know some of you have heard that Cappy's velocity was down, but I don't remember Yost, Maddux, Cappy, Uecker, Powell, or anyone else make these comments during the season last year.

 

Does anyone know?

[sweepscc]

Let Cappy get off to a good year as a rotation pitcher and put Parra in a long relief role. Trade Cappy at the All-Star break no matter how good his numbers(the better they are...um, the better for us) for whatever help is needed at time (relief pitching,etc.) and insert Parra into Cappy's spot in the rotation.

[DrWood]

A 5th starter will usually have under 30 starts and 160 innings. I don't think there is any reason to worry about him going over 165 innings, unless he is putting up ROY numbers, and if he is, don't you want him to be doing that in MIL rather than NASH? They can always close him down for a start or two.

[TooLiveBrew]

I am curious to check these over to see if indeed Capuano was only throwing it up there in the lower 80's as has been suggested in this thread as well as in another thread.

He certainly saw his velocity drop, and it coincided right with his injury iirc. Imo his 'normal' range for the FB is 87-91, where the end of last year saw more in the 84-88 range. Until we see that Chris has lost velocity while healthy, I don't think there's much reason to get worried.

[Klements Bratwurst]

CBS Sportsline take on Capuano.

More fodder for what we are talking about.

 

EDIT- Other interesting comments in the article about Suppan, Torres, and Gagne

[1992casey]

KB, I'm not getting your link to work.

[Klements Bratwurst]

http://freemeeting.1.baseball.sportsline.com/news/10686281

 

Here is the actual link for the CBS sportsline article. It was a little slow, but it finally worked.

[1992casey]

I'm still not getting through; it looks like it's Sportsline's problem.

[logan82]

I just want to know, barring a really bad spring, how we can justify throwing Villanueva in the bullpen or Nashville.

Pretty easily actually. We are also concerned with next year and the year after and so on as much as this year. There is no need to get rid of somebody just to make room especially in the case of Villanueve who is very similar to Capuano, Bush, and Suppan. Making moves just to get Villy and Parra on the MLB roster is shortsighted.

[1992casey]

Whether it's Villanueva in Nashville (which I tend to disagree with) or Parra in Nashville (which I do agree with), even though 2009 and beyond is valid, I don't think it's necessary to go there to justify using the minor league option.

 

Simply put, the season is a marathon rather than a sprint. You need to have 30-plus players ready to contribute. That might mean a couple of players from the top 25 starting the year in the minors.

[trwi7]

trwi,

 

Villanueva is not a soft tosser. His fastball is consistently in the 89-92 range which is major league average. Capuano throws 85-87.

That's fine. He wasn't talking about Capuano though, this was his quote.

 

As for Bush, he seems to be getting worse each year. 07 186 IP/217 H, .290 against. He's a soft tosser that has to be perfect to be effective.

Bush sits 89-91 with his fastball as does Capuano and I'm looking at video of Capuano right now from late September and he just hit 89 with his fastball. All of them have average MLB fastballs.

[DrWood]

yeah, you'll probably have 30 guys or more on the roster before callups, but isn't there sense in having the ones you think are the best 25 on the roster?

[1992casey]

It does make sense, DrWood, until you get into the issue of having to trade or release decent players to make room for others, then finding a need for those same decent players a couple of months down the road.

[Baldkin]

When the drop off from our #5 starter to our #8 starter isn't that much, but the drop off from #8 to #9 is huge (Zack Jackson, maybe?), keeping those top 8 guys has to be a priority.

 

This year, our depth in the bullpen and in the rotation is a strong point. Why weaken it just to have the best 5 starters, when odds are we'll need at least 7 of them over the course of the season.

[brewjihad]

A 5th starter will usually have under 30 starts and 160 innings. I don't think there is any reason to worry about him going over 165 innings, unless he is putting up ROY numbers, and if he is, don't you want him to be doing that in MIL rather than NASH? They can always close him down for a start or two.

Let's just say for a second that the Brewers win the division and Parra is on a hot streak through August and September, and hits 165 innings before the playoffs start. Then what do you do?

 

Simply put, the season is a marathon rather than a sprint.

 

That sums it up very well. Parra will be a major contributor this year- just maybe not until July or so.

 

[logan82]

We are gonig yo need as many arms as possible next year as well. Like somebody said, the dropoff from our 8th to 9th starter is huge. If we trade a guy plus lose Sheets suddenly 8 and 9 become 6 and 7. We probably have 15-16 guys right now, but many are on 1 year deals. Without trading anybody we probably only have 10 of those guys under our control for sure next year.

[paul253]

We are also concerned with next year and the year after and so on as much as this year.

 

Give me a break. How is starting Villanueva in Nashville this year going to improve our chances next year? You keep comparing him to Capuano Suppan and Bush......in his one year he was far more consistent than Bush has ever been. I've never advocated getting rid of anyone other than Vargas. If you can honestly say you'd rather have Vargas on the roster than Villanueva than I can honestly say you're nuts! Also, I have never suggested making a move specifically to get him, or Parra, in the rotation. Villanueva is more than good enough to win a spot, especially over Vargas. Parra should be in AAA to limit his innings