Parra needs to be in the rotation on opening day... Latest: Manny Parra, Cy Young of Spring Training (see reply #99)

[DonMoney4Mgr]

Yes, we have depth in our starting pitching. But, I don't consider having three 5's in the starting 5 (Bush, Sup, Cappy) good enough to make a playoff push. There is a bigger upside to Villanueva, and of coarse, Parra. They both have good enough stuff to have sub 4 era's, and with that the Brewers could have a quality 3 and 4. Not to mention Parra can hit. Please note; this is not a knee-jerk reaction to Parra's strong start this spring along with Bush's futility. I just don't think Bush can be any better than 12 win/ 5 era guy, Suppan 14 win/ 4.5, and Cappy Who knows?

[SZBrewerFan]

DonMoney I couldn't agree more. There was a post prior to pitchers/catchers reporting regarding Parra (I think it was a prospect ranking thread) where I made an argument for this kid to be ranked higher than he is by most scouts. All this kid has done when healthy is put up great numbers at each level. He has great stuff and is left handed to boot. I understand that their are others who are being paid more, we have depth, etc. etc. but I just don't see how you can say we are in a win now mode without this kid and Carlos V. in the rotation. There is no way anyone can tell me that running out Bush and Capuano (and not to mention Vargas) gives this team a better chance at winning games than Manny and Carlos do. I realize there is no chance, but when Yo is healthy come mid-april, I would love to see a rotation of Sheets, Yo, Parra, Carlos and Soup. That is the rotation that gives us the best chance at the playoffs. At the same time I am not sure where Manny is in terms of inning projection this year....but if they are trying to limit him 160-180 I could definitely understand him being stashed in the bullpen for a month or two. Sending him down to AAA makes little or no sense to me at all though. He will still tack the innings on his arm and I don't think he has much more to prove at that level.

[pogokat]

he's never pitched more than 140 innings...askin g him to throw 180-200 is asking a lot...expecting him to do so would be taking a huge risk...

 

but the upside is definitely there...

 

he's got options, however, so he's the most logical choice to head down...

[Ennder]

I'm not sure I buy that Villanueva is anything but a 4.50 ERA pitcher, too many flyballs and too many BB's. He certainly has more upside eventually though. I think you are exaggerating calling those guys #5's especially Capuano. If you look at what Capuano did the past 2 years and before his groin injury last year he has 81 starts with 7.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 3.98 ERA. Not sure what about that screams #5 starter in your book. As usual people believe in what have you done for me lately and will judge a guy on a bad 13 starts(which followed an injury of course) instead of the previous good 81 starts.

[logan82]

While he may be better than most of our pitchers, he does not have the experience that they do. There has been talk of Villanueve being one of our best 5 starters, but he is probably also headed down. We really should get used to having guys in AAA who probably deserve a shot at the MLB roster, but will end up in AAA because they have options left. Agree or not, like it or not, Melvin and Yost have shown in the past that they will go with experience over raw talent when it comes to roster choices. The options of Parra and Villanueva allow us to keep them without giving up anybody. To me it is looking towards the future when guys like that end up going down.

[TerraceReserved]

I respectfully disagree.

I just don't think Bush can be any better than 12 win/ 5 era guy,

Interesting. He has a career 4.53 ERA, with two seasons being in the American League. He also has a career 4.42 FIP.

There is no way anyone can tell me that running out Bush and Capuano (and not to mention Vargas) gives this team a better chance at winning games than Manny and Carlos do.

I for one am not convinced that Villanueva is better than Capuano and Bush. Vargas is a different story. Here are the career FIP's for those 3.
Villy: 4.67
Bush: 4.42
Cappy: 4.58

Both of them are projected to have a better FIP's next year than Villy. I like the kid a lot, he's got a good stuff, but his periphial numbers don't scream sub 4 ERA. Meanwhile, Bush and Cappy pitched fine last year, but were hit with bad luck and horrible defense. And there is no way Parra should be in the rotation at the start of the year, simply due to his innings limit. As for what Manny can contirbute, there's no doubt he could be above average, even well above average in the future, but rotation on opening day? No.

[twobrewers]

he's never pitched more than 140 innings...askin g him to throw 180-200 is asking a lot

Agreed. I think Parra might be the 3rd most talented pitcher on our squad. But he can't pitch 200 innings this year. It would be irresponsible.

 

If he pitched 150 innings - I would like to see at least 125 of them with the major league club.

[brewjihad]

I understand your opinion entirely, but disagree with one point- I don't think Parra needs to be in the rotation on opening day. The baseball season is six months long, and there will be plenty of time for Parra to make starts in the majors and be effective.

 

I think we all agree that there is no way Parra could be expected to make 30+ major league starts this year and still be counted on as a rotation member in October (knock on wood).

 

The point is that Parra will have a huge impact on the Brewers this season. But I'd rather see that impact occuring in July, August, September, and October than in April, May, and June.

[paul253]

I don't know where all this negative talk about Villanueva is coming from. There is absolutely no reason to start him in AAA. Three is no way Vargas and Bush are both better than him. I think Parra needs to be in AAA to limit his innings. The rotation should be Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Capuano and Villanueva. Bush is too inconsistent to rely on. He should be the long guy and Vargas should be gone, with Parra and Zach Jackson being called up in case of injury.

[DonMoney4Mgr]

Compare apples to apples. Villy's major league stats: 3.86 ERA, 168 IP/144 H, leagues batting .230 against. Cappy had a poor 2nd half in 06, and was a bust in 07. The league hit close to .300 against him with an ERA over 5. That is not a blip in the radar, but a trend. As for Bush, he seems to be getting worse each year. 07 186 IP/217 H, .290 against. He's a soft tosser that has to be perfect to be effective. There's a big difference between throwing 88-89 and 92-93. I will say, however, that I wasn't aware of Parra's inning's limit. How old is he? 26 (oh, forgive me I'm rather new. What is FIP?)

[trwi7]

He's a soft tosser that has to be perfect to be effective.

 

So is Villanueva but according to you he absolutely has to be in the rotation.

[logan82]

I don't know where all this negative talk about Villanueva is coming from. There is absolutely no reason to start him in AAA.

He has an option and we want to keep our depth. He is pretty much the same type pitcher as Capuano, Bush, and Suppan. By that I mean they are all control pitchers with average stuff.

 

I will say, however, that I wasn't aware of Parra's inning's limit.

 

It isn't his age so much as the fact that he only pitched 133 innings last year. It is generally accepted that you don't want to increase a pitcher's innings much more than 30 innings a year. That would put him around 160-170 innings this year.

[1992casey]

FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching. A flaw in ERA is that it can be affected by things a pitcher can't control: mainly the defense behind him and to a degree, luck. A pitcher can control BBs and Ks, though. FIP concentrates on those, then assigns a number using ERA's familiar scale.

 

You can find FIP by going to the Hardball Times stat page, then choosing THT Pitching from either the American League or National League popups. You can sort further by playing with the form on the top of the page that comes up, then hitting Submit. Here are the 2007 Brewers THT Pitching Stats. And here's the FIP entry in Hardball Times' stats glossary.

 

I believe FIP is also available on a couple of other sites.

[TooLiveBrew]

Not to be confused with FIB, FIP can tell you something useful. Parra's upside is higher than most of the SP who'll break camp with the big club. However, since he has options & others don't, he'll be best used at AAA imo.

[paul253]

He has an option and we want to keep our depth.

what an absolute horrible reason to start him in Nashville. Seriously...let's put him in Nashville because we can??? I'd rather dump Vargas and hope to avoid injuries than have him in the rotation and Villanueva in the minors waiting for someone to get hurt. Villanueva has had nothing but success in the majors, so lets stop predicting what he's supposed to do based on what scouts say about him and let him pitch until he proves he is no good.

[sheetswannabe]

Paul, while I too would rather have Villy then Vargas, I agree with the fact stated above that we need to keep this depth. We have bad luck with injuries.. Gallardos out for now, I dont want to mention another player who is injury prone, and you just dont know. I would say, trade one of the pitchers, maybe two by June, not now its just spring training get their value up.

[Ennder]

Cappy had a poor 2nd half in 06, and was a bust in 07. The league hit close to .300 against him with an ERA over 5. That is not a blip in the radar, but a trend

 

No it is a misuse of splits. For 22 starts between the beginning of august of 2006 and going on the DL in 2007 Capuano had an ERA right around 4 with good peripherals. So calling it a trend when there is a huge chunk of effectiveness in the middle of it is a mistake.

[DonMoney4Mgr]

No it is a misuse of splits. For 22 starts between the beginning of august of 2006 and going on the DL in 2007 Capuano had an ERA right around 4 with good peripherals. So calling it a trend when there is a huge chunk of effectiveness in the middle of it is a mistake.

Cappy post all star break 06' (1and 8 w/ a 5.17 ERA), 07 (5 and 12, 5.10). He did have a decent stretch in there, but those are not good national league numbers no matter how you slice it.

 

 

(pared back nested quote --1992)

[Klements Bratwurst]

Regarding Parra and his limited innings that he has thrown on the higher levels of baseball, I believe he is a candidate for starting the season in AAA as discussed to keep his arm stretched out for a month or so, but not too long down in Nashville. I would think he could throw maybe 165-170 innings max this year, so hopefully he doesn't burn 100+ down in Nashville.

When they call him up they could put him in the bullpen as a long man, again getting him into some action, but not too much, until they decide mid season to throw him in the rotation permanently, thus injecting a live arm into the rotation in the heart of the race. They did this to Yo last season, when they called him up and rested him in the bullpen for a short while. You just can't run Parra out there in April every 5 days and "Dusty Baker" Parra's arm like Kerry Wood, specifically if Yo and Parra are the future stoppers of the rotation if indeed Sheets leaves in the near future.

[JohnBriggs12]

DonMoney4Mgr,

 

Where you been? You're right on the money (pun intended)! I've been making this case it seems forever. Trust me though, there's a lot of guys out there that will argue.

 

trwi,

 

Villanueva is not a soft tosser. His fastball is consistently in the 89-92 range which is major league average. Capuano throws 85-87. Villanueva has 4 major league quality pitches and he uses all 4. Capuano uses 2 most of the time. The times Villanueva gets into trouble are when he doesn't have command of his fastball. When he's able to spot it where he wants which is most of the time, he's very, very tough.

 

As for the Parra innings debate, don't innings pitched at Nashville count? They can control his innings (to the degree they need to) just as easily in Milwaukee. People seem to equate Parra, who will turn 26 in October, with 21 and 22 year old guys. He's not a kid. Yes he had surgery, but that was in 2004.

[Ennder]

Cappy post all star break 06' (1and 8 w/ a 5.17 ERA), 07 (5 and 12, 5.10). He did have a decent stretch in there, but those are not good national league numbers no matter how you slice it.

No they aren't, but I can pull any mediocre starter out and go from a cold month through another cold month and make them look bad. My point was when he has 2/3rds of a season of good starts in the middle of the range you pulled out and obviously struggled after an injury that the numbers are misleading. Then when you dig deeper and see that a large part of the problem was BABIP (bad defense) and the bullpen letting in 64% of the runners he left on... well you get the point. You have to look deeper than just spitting out some arbitrary splits and heavily team influenced stats to judge a pitcher.

 

 

(pared back long nested quote --1992)

[Milltownhooker]

Easy way to keep that depth would be to have a rotation of Sheets, Yo, Parra or Villy, Suppan, Capuano with Villy or Parra in AAA & Bush in the pen

[lukevan]

You'd need to release or trade Vargas under that scenario, as well.

 

Parra is not starting the year in the rotation, and since we don't have room for him in the bullpen either, he will be in AAA to start the year. Villy could be also, but I think the Brewers unload Vargas to make sure he's on the ML roster (or stash Varg on DL). Then the question becomes which of Villy or Bush do you use out of the pen? At least Villy has been a reliever, whereas Bush has been knocked around in his few bullpen outings. I'm pretty sure we're going to see:

 

Sheets

Suppan

Villanueva

Capuano

Bush

 

 

to start the season, and then replace Villy with Yo when he comes back, sending Villy to the pen. I'm not saying I would take Bush over Villy in the rotation, but that's how I see it shaking out.

[jhart05]

Put Parra in the rotation at the beginning of the year? That's insane. The kid will wear down by August.

 

Let him start the year in AAA, have them limit his innings, or keep him in the pen for long relief, then when he's needed due to injury, put him in the rotation after the break.

 

Much like Villy last year.

[jhart05]

Now here is some sanity...

You'd need to release or trade Vargas under that scenario, as well.

 

Parra is not starting the year in the rotation, and since we don't have room for him in the bullpen either, he will be in AAA to start the year. ... I'm pretty sure we're going to see:

 

Sheets

Suppan

Villanueva

Capuano

Bush

 

 

to start the season, and then replace Villy with Yo when he comes back, sending Villy to the pen. I'm not saying I would take Bush over Villy in the rotation, but that's how I see it shaking out.

(pared back quote, but please try to add substance to a post rather than quoting a whole message and simply saying, "I agree." --1992)