The Book: below average starting pitchers should never hit

[logan82]

Just to try fanning the flames a bit with regards to lineup discussion, The Book's last way to optimize a lineup involves your starting rotation. They say that a below average starter should never hit. It says you should have a rotation of

#1 starter

#2 starter

#4 starter/#5starter/ Long reliever

#3 starter

#5 starter/#4 starter/ Long reliever

where on the 3rd and 5th days you should have your pitcher pinch hit for at every at bat. While I agree with the theory behind this I am not sure how well this would work in practice. Maybe you could do it in September after callups.

[Tbadder]

I completely agree with this approach, and I think it would really help a team like the Brewers who can't trust any starters afte Yo and Benny. However, it's not perfect, nothing ever is. And baseball is such a conservative sport that thinking outside the box is pretty frowned upon, so I can't see it happening any time soon.

 

It would doubly work for the Crew because of their plethora of number 4 and 5 pitchers. If Vargas and Cappy and Bush and even Soup and Manny only had to go 3 innings at a time I believe they would maximize thier strengths.

 

Of course there's the problem of getting blown out in the first inning. That would necessitate a bullpen with lots of pitchers that could go 2 innings. Then again that describes the Brewer's pen this year as well.

[Ennder]

Pitchers on average tend to be at their worst in the 1st inning and then the 3rd time through the order. Not sure this is a good idea at all. Having a very short leash with marginal pitchers after the 2nd time through the order is a good idea. Yanking them in the 2nd or 3rd inning probably is a bad idea.

[rluzinski]

Pitchers on average tend to be at their worst in the 1st inning and then the 3rd time through the order.

 

I thought that was mostly a result of having to face the top of the order. Anyone have "The Book" handy? That obviously wouldn't apply here.

[DrWood]

The biggest problem is that the 4th and 5th starters would pitch in about 60 games, getting about 2 innings per game (really, less than that if they NEVER hit). when is the last time a guy pitched 120 innings in 60 games? Probably at least 20 years ago.

 

OK, you could have more than 2 guys take those roles, so that they pitch less than 60 games, but then you need a bigger staff. Even with a 12 man staff, it's hard to have a bench that can supply 4 decent pinch hitters in a game. So basically, I don't think you could make it work outside of September.

 

I do have an idea I think would work, if you could get the pitchers to buy into it. Basically, you'd have the best, sufficiently rested, pitcher pitch at all times, perhaps having a specialist or three to setup, close or face lefties.

Your best pitcher would be always starting, because if he's sufficiently rested, he'd be the first guy to get the ball. You could go with a smaller staff, probably, and shuffle an extra guy onto the 25 if the staff is getting worked hard. The worst pitcher on the staff would get used in blowouts or during a period when other guys are getting worked over.

With a smaller staff, you'd have an extra hitter to get more PH opportunities.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I have a much better option that really clears this debate up:

 

Don't have below average starting pitchers start if you want to consistently win games. If they are that bad and you don't have any alternatives on your roster to pitch instead of them, then it's probably not worth mulling lineup/pitching rotation issues - the team's gonna be bad regardless of what you attempt to do.

 

If there's any team that would possibly entertain this idea, it would have to be the Houston Astros

[DrWood]

I have a much better option that really clears this debate up:

 

Don't have below average starting pitchers start if you want to consistently win games. If they are that bad and you don't have any alternatives on your roster to pitch instead of them, then it's probably not worth mulling lineup/pitching rotation issues - the team's gonna be bad regardless of what you attempt to do.

 

ah, wonderful Lake Woebegon, where all of our children are above average.

Every team has below-average pitchers.

[logan82]

The problem I see is having starters who don't take a innings to get into the groove. I don't see the innings as much of a problem, especially in our case where we have 4-5 starters of about equal quality after out top 3 starters. There isn't a huge drop off after our 5th starter to our 6th or even 7th starter.

 

The other problem I see is that you are going to burn through your entire bench every time through the order you do this.

 

"The Book" says that there is a .42 run per game gain by never letting your pitcher hit. I guess the logic behingd it is that when you have below average pitchers pitching the gain in runs will more than offset the below average pitching.

[DrWood]

do you get the .42 run per game when you have craig counsell doing the PH? That seems higher than the difference between AL and NL ERA, and that includes some PH.

[rluzinski]

ah, wonderful Lake Woebegon, where all of our children are above average.

Every team has below-average pitchers.

 

You obviously aren't willing to do what it takes to win.

[logan82]

You gain .42 for the games you use this strategy I believe. I think the difference between the AL and NL ERA is about .5 so .42 per game doesn't seem to far off really.

[DrWood]

ah, wonderful Lake Woebegon, where all of our children are above average.

Every team has below-average pitchers.

 

You obviously aren't willing to do what it takes to win.

and that would be to defy logic?

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[DrWood]

You gain .42 for the games you use this strategy I believe. I think the difference between the AL and NL ERA is about .5 so .42 per game doesn't seem to far off really.

last three seasons the difference was .08, .13, and .14 between AL and NL ERA.

I had thought it was higher than that.

 

[Biestie1]

The problem that I see, is that it doesn't give any margin for error for three of your five starters. If you're going to you pen, by design, after a few innings in your 3 and 5 spots in the rotation, your 1, 2, and 4 better go deep into games. Your point about doing it after september callups is probably a good one, but I don't think you can carry enough arms in your pen to be effective at this otherwise.

[logan82]

I don't see the pen as the problem really. You are mostly giving extra work to your long man who in general is hardly ever used. Unless our starters would go through a year like last year we would be ok. Add to that the fact that we are doing it on days with the starters who are least likley to give a good outing and it might help the pen a little.

[Baldkin]

The reason the Brewers won't be doing this, is our #4 and #5 guys are *above* average, especially for thier spot in the rotation.