BPro projected records (Latest: THT predicts Brewers finish 1st)

[Ennder]

Thought people might be interested in this.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

 

EDIT: Removed subscriber-only material - b19

 

Keep in mind PECOTA is very high on Fukudome, Pie and Soto. If even one of those guys flames out I think we are the 'favorites' by their system.

 

 

EDIT: Updated title - 1992

[logan82]

Yeah 2 wins is almost nothing as we know from last year(walk off by A-Ram being the difference last year), specially given we play head to head so much

[sheetswannabe]

Ill take the WC.

[pebadger]

Well, if this means the Crew gets the wildcard, I guess I'd take it, as much as it would suck to finish behind 'them'.

[RickieDROPSbombs]

Only 86 wins for the Diamondbacks with all of their pitching?

[pebadger]

Looking closer, I note that there are only three projected 90+ win teams.

 

Could be right, but I don't remember the last time there were fewer than 5 or 6 90-win teams. I can remember a few years when there were 8 or more. Maybe everyone will just be more competitive and records will be pulled to the middle, but I'm guessing things will just happen that are unanticipated and we'll see at least 5 again.

[Ennder]

Nah, these are all regressed towards the mean and don't include injuries, breakouts etc. A few of those 86 projections will be 90+ and a few will end up around 81.

 

I actually don't expect the Diamondbacks to make that 86 win projection so not surprised by it. I think that team last year wasn't as good as the Cardinals world series team personally. They are better this year but in that division I don't think they stand out.

[logan82]

I wouldn't mind the WC as it usually means you are the 2nd best team in the league, next to the team that wins your division. A WC team has made the WS every year except once since the WC has been introduced.

[pitchleague]

I'm actually surprised that they have the Rays as a winning team, despite the 2nd lowest team BA in the AL.

 

Heck, take away that stat and I'm STILL surprised that they have them as a winning team.

[RickieDROPSbombs]

But still I'd be happy with a wild card projection if we were behind anyone but the Cubs.

[crewcrazy]

I'm actually surprised that they have the Rays as a winning team, despite the 2nd lowest team BA in the AL.

 

Heck, take away that stat and I'm STILL surprised that they have them as a winning team.

I'm not all that surprised -- that rotation might actually be one of the best in the division with Kazmir-Shields-Garza at the top, and they have a lot of good young hitters (even if they did trade away Delmon Young). Their success will probably come down to their bullpen, as it has the past couple years. The story of the Rays franchise has been something like "Kazmir strikes out 13 in 6 innings with 120 pitches, leaves the game with a 1-run lead, bullpen gives up 6 runs, Rays lose." They've gone to great lengths to attempt to improve that bullpen...I wouldn't be surprised to see them put up the first winning season in franchise history. Outside of Boston/New York, it looks like it'll be a down year for the AL East with Baltimore playing for draft position and Toronto just hanging around the .500 mark with some injury questions.

What I find interesting is the Mariners' projection for last place in the AL West -- I don't know if these projections were made pre-Bedard trade or not, but I've heard a lot of people saying the Mariners will push the Angels for the AL West crown. That's not something I really bought, though, since they had some pretty big offensive issues last year and didn't do their offense any favors this year by trading away Adam Jones. I thought it was really interesting that the Mariners and the Giants are the only two teams with projected SLG's under .400.

As for the Brewers, I'd take a 4-game improvement over last year if it meant a wildcard berth. Finishing 2 games behind the division leader again would be a tough pill to swallow, but like everyone else has said, a 2-game swing isn't all that much and could be decided by any number of things. Things could be worse -- the Brewers could be projected 10 games behind the division leader like the Braves are behind the Mets (I realize that Santana in the NL projects to some crazy numbers, but the rest of their rotation is kind of iffy and they're coming off the biggest chokejob in the history of the league).

[rluzinski]

What I find interesting is the Mariners' projection for last place in the AL West -- I don't know if these projections were made pre-Bedard trade or not, but I've heard a lot of people saying the Mariners will push the Angels for the AL West crown.

 

It's hard to ignore that, despite their 88 win finish, they were actually outscored over the length of the season, 794 to 813. I don't think Vegas is very high on Seattle either.

[Ennder]

They are also a pretty old team and they lost their 2nd best RP and one of their best hitters and didn't replace them with anything. Their depth chart doesn't include Bedard and there is no #1 starter listed so I think their standings might be messed up as well.

[Leinie Lodge]

Central	W	L	RS	RA	AVG	OBP	SLG
Chicago Cubs	89	73	845	759	.274	.343	.452

So.....the BP model predicts Cubs go from .422 SLG in '07 to scorch a .452 SLG, which will top NYY, CLE, DET, MKE, PHL, CIN and everyone else. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/ohwell.gif How does this work???

 

 

[Ennder]

They are really high on Soto, Fukudome and Pie.

 

Soriano - .544

Theriot - .347

Lee - .527

Aramis - .536

Fukudome - .504

DeRosa - .439

Soto - .470

Pie - .479

Murton - .462

Ward - 459

 

Now I agree with you, I think BPro is just too optimistic on the Cubs hitting but I do expect their hitting to be better than last year still.

[Leinie Lodge]

Thanks for the BP numbers Ennder, great stuff.

 

After seeing aggregate team numbers, I'm wondering if the BP staff goes back to question PECOTA assumptions.

Cubs team SLG really seems skewed high compared to fully-loaded AL lineups.

But hey, if the model requires the Cubs top the majors in Slugging in order to win NL Central, I love OUR chances more!http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[razzzorsharp]

Things that stand out to me: 1) Rays, like already mentioned, having a winning record in the toughest division (in my mind) in baseball. 2) Phillies behind Braves (albeit 2 games). Howard, Rollins, and Utley are three MVP canidates, that should account for more in my mind. 3) I think this is the big rebuilding year for the A's. I think less than 70 wins is a real possibility. 4) Besides the NL race, being the Brewer fan I am, the other race I am excited to see is the Indians/Tigers. I really want to see how this Tiger lineup gells together. 5) I think the Cardinals will be in the race again. I don't know how, I don't know why, but I fear them. When is Carpenter expected back?

[SoCalBrewfan]

Thanks for posting those numbers...

 

They project the Cubs to score 845 runs? Wow. That's up from 751 last year, and would make them basically the best offense in the league...not sure I see that offense as a hundred runs better.

 

It's also interesting to see the Brewers going from 779 runs allowed to 765. With the defensive changes I would be tempted to expect more of an improvement...

 

I'd take 87 wins and a playoff berth, though. Yeah, I'd take that.

[twobrewers]

Looking at these projections, and reading other Brewer related articles - Am I the only one getting sick of the NL Central always being called the weakest division?

I don't expect too much from the Astros or the Pirates. But I think the Reds, Cubs and Brewers all have a good shot at 85 wins.

Everyone seems to be overlooking the Reds - but they actually have a ton of talent over there. Harang and Arroyo give them a good 1/2 punch. (They might add Blanton) Homer Bailey was projected to be better than Yovanni. Cordero vastly improved their bullpen.

Votto is a pretty highly regarded prospect at 1B. Phillips is fantastic at 2B. Encarnacion is a pretty solid 3B. And an outfield of Dunn, Griffey and Jay Bruce might be the best in all of baseball.

(The Reds scare me)

For a frame of reference, Jim Callis the past two weeks has been asked questions about Jay Bruce. Callis loves Ryan Braun. He also loves Prince Fielder. Callis said he would take Bruce over either of them. That is some pretty high praise!

[Leinie Lodge]

SoCal...Cubs projected to add nearly 100 more runs in '08, netting a higher run total than BOS, CLE or DET, and Slug better than every team period, all without benefit of a DH.

 

BP runs their projections at the Cubby Bear?http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

[Ennder]

Well they project Fukudome to have a .400 OBP and .900 SLG and Soto to be one of the best C's in the NL. I don't think either of those will actually happen.

 

twobrewers, I agree with you but it is really a new thing. This division has been terrible for a while now but it has added some of the best young talent in the game in it over the last few years and has some of the best young talent still coming. These things go in cycles and I think the NL Central is on the upswing right now.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ennder meant a .900 OPS for Fukudome, obv. not SLG.

 

The things I think will happen IRL and not the way it went in the sim for Cubs/Brewers: Milwaukee's BA & OBP will be hard pressed to be as poor as they're projected... CHN will have a really hard time SLG the ball that much better, and in general, improving the offense by ~ 100 runs (as mentioned already).

[trwi7]

Well they project Fukudome to have a .400 OBP and .900 SLG

1.300 OPS? We're screwed. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Ennder]

Oops, yeah I meant .900 OPS. heh.

[ozzybourne]

i agree with his these projections for AL west and NL west only.

 

AL east goes to boston with superior pitching in the toughest division in baseball. bos-98 wins ny-91 tor-88 tb-80

AL central to detroit in a runaway. det-100 cle-88

NL east- philly is for real. mets-96 phi-92 atl-84

NL central-most improved record by division in all of MLB (reds and pirates less boring than last year) AND no wild card from this division.

brewers- 88 cubs-84 astros-82 cinncy- 81 pitts-79 cards-68

 

so--put it in stone, this a guaranteed lock--mortgage the farm. the brewers are 'flying high again'.

 

now for postseason projections.............