Brewer PECOTA stats

[Ennder]

Ryan Braun - .300/.367/575, 6.1 WARP

Corey Hart - .288/.358/.528, 5.9 WARP

Prince Fielder - .287/.384/.560, 5.5 WARP

JJ Hardy - .273/.329/.441, 4.4 WARP

Mike Cameron - .269/.356/.493, 4.4 WARP

Rickie Weeks - .265/.368/.454, 3.5 WARP

Bill Hall - .267/.335/.482, 3.5 WARP

Jason Kendall - .255/.324/.321, 1.7 WARP

 

Yovani Gallardo - 3.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4.8 WARP

Ben Sheets - 3.93 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 3.9 WARP

Eric Gagne - 3.38 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 3.9 WARP

Dave Bush - 4.31 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.7 WARP

Chris Capuano - 4.51 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.9 WARP

Jeff Suppan - 4.84 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 2.4 WARP

David Riske - 3.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 1.7 WARP

Carlos Villanueva - 4.72 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 1.4 WARP

Saloman Torres - 4.29 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 1.4 WARP

Derrick Turnbow - 4.56 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 1.2 WARP

Brian Shouse - 4.12 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1.0 WARP

 

I'll take those hitting numbers, the pitching looks pretty ugly so I'm hoping it is assuming last years defense and not this years.

[Ennder]

And now for the Cubs.

Aramis Ramirez - .301/.363/.536, 5.8 WARP
Derrek Lee - .296/.381/.517, 5.4 WARP
Alfosnso Soriano - .278/.336/.544, 4.9 WARP
Geovany Soto - .273/.352/.470, 4.7 WARP
Kosuke Fukudome - .289/.401/.504, 4.4 WARP
Felix Pie - .284/.339/.470, 3.7 WARP
Mark DeRosa - .286, .360, .439, 3.3 WARP
Ryan Theriot - .270/.330/.347, 3.1 WARP

Carlos Zambrano - 3.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.7 WARP
Rich Hill - 4.02 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.7 WARP
Ted Lilly - 4.25 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.7 WARP
Bob Howry - 3.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.2 WARP
Michael Wuertz - 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 1.9 WARP
Carlos Marmol - 4.06 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 1.9 WARP
Sean Marshal - 4.74 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 1.8 WARP
Ryan Dempster - 4.24 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.8 WARP
Jason Marquis - 5.04 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.7 WARP
Jon Lieber - 4.62 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 1.5 WARP
Kerry Wood - 4.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1.0 WARP

 

The Brewers had a 35 WARP out of the every day hitters, the Cubs a 35.3. Brewers a 28.3 out of rotation and top 6 RP, Cubs a 26.9.

So basically PECOTA thinks the teams are even, heh.

[DrWood]

actually, I thought the hitting numbers were a little low for most players, and the pitching more on target, with a few exceptions.

I'll take those numbers for Cameron, though.

[PKBadger]

Just looking at the OPS projections makes me want to drool (aside from Kendall). Imagine this lineup:

 

Weeks - .822

Cameron - .849

Fielder - .944

Braun - .942

Hart - .886

Hall - .817

Hardy - .770

Kendall - .645 (blah)

 

Try pitching to that!

[Ennder]

I sure hope that Fukudome projection isn't accurate, it didn't project him for full time play because of his injury history or he'd be up at Braun levels of value.

[MoneyballMan]

Are these 2008 projected PECOTA numbers? I still don't see updated PECOTA cards at BP.com. Are they all in one place until they update each player's individual card?

[Ennder]

These are from the weighted mean spreadsheet which came out today. The Cards will be coming out soon.

[DrWood]

Just looking at the OPS projections makes me want to drool (aside from Kendall). Imagine this lineup:

 

Weeks - .822

Cameron - .849

Fielder - .944

Braun - .942

Hart - .886

Hall - .817

Hardy - .770

Kendall - .645 (blah)

 

Try pitching to that!

considering the projections either represent a drop-off from last season, or a minor improvement, even for very young players, it is pretty pessimistic except for Cameron (which must be due to change in ballparks) and Hall (they are expecting a fair bounce-back). Last year: Weeks, .807; Cameron, .759, Braun, 1.004; Fielder 1.013; Hart, .892; Hall, .740; Hardy .786; Kendall .610.

 

Those 2008 projections DO NOT represent a division-winner in my opinion.

[Ennder]

I'd still be very happy with that offensive output, especially the OBP's considering how weak ours was last year as a team.

 

Ryan Braun - .300/.367/575 (.324/.370/.634 last year)

Corey Hart - .288/.358/.528 (.295/.353/.539)

Prince Fielder - .287/.384/.560 (.288/.395/.618)

JJ Hardy - .273/.329/.441 (.277/.323/.463)

Mike Cameron - .269/.356/.493 (.261/.318/.453, LF last year)

Rickie Weeks - .265/.368/.454 (.235/.374/.433)

Bill Hall - .267/.335/.482 (.254/.315/.425)

Jason Kendall - .255/.324/.321 (.278/.296/.403 Estrada last year)

 

I guess looking at the stats the big upgrade is just Cameron over the crap we got out of left field last year and Hall improving on last years numbers. The best part of these numbers are they look conservative to me for the Brewers other than Cameron, these are not levels that our players will have huge problems reaching. The Cubs have Soto and Fukudome who could easily fall short of those projections given the lack of experience. If one or both of those guys really struggle to reach those numbers we should have better hitting and pitching than the Cubs.

[DrWood]

I'd still be very happy with that offensive output, especially the OBP's considering how weak ours was last year as a team.

considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections.

[Ennder]

I'd still be very happy with that offensive output, especially the OBP's considering how weak ours was last year as a team.

considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections.

The extra month of Braun easily covers the 0.003 drop in OBP. Fielders OBP is offset by the gains of Hart and Hardy. Weeks playing full time would again more than cover that OBP drop. That leaves Hall, Kendall and Cameron as pure profit in OBP. The team OBP should go up a good amount to at least league average.

[TooLiveBrew]

considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections

 

Well, the drop for Weeks doesn't make much sense. His BB rate will be stronger in 2008 than the offseason models are anticipating imo. How you can project a .368 OBP with a .265 BA for a guy who was .374/.235 last year is beyond me... probably due to looking at 2006 & '05 as well.

 

Why so pessimistic on these projections? They've probably got Weeks well below what he'll produce, and...

 

The best part of these numbers are they look conservative to me for the Brewers other than Cameron, these are not levels that our players will have huge problems reaching. The Cubs have Soto and Fukudome who could easily fall short of those projections given the lack of experience. If one or both of those guys really struggle to reach those numbers we should have better hitting and pitching than the Cubs.

 

The Cubs numbers look more optimistic than pessimistic, and the Brewers' numbers look more pessimistic than optimistic. I'll take the latter any time - like Ennd said, it means your guys won't have much trouble reaching the projection levels.

 

Oh, and a sidenote -

 

Felix Pie - .284/.339/.470, 3.7 WARP

 

this is the first projection system I've seen on Pie that I think paints an accurate picture of what he can do. I really am not looking forward to facing that guy a bunch in the next ten years.

[BuckyTuba]

Why don't you nerds back it up to the statistical analysis board?

 

Great stuff as usual. Some of the numbers are projecting a little low (braun/fielder) but it's interesting to see them predict Capuano making a solid turnaround.

[pete]

Didn't Felix Pie bat something like .215 in the majors and .350 at Iowa? I wonder how that leads to a projection of .289? Averaging?

 

Lee is a year post wrist injury. I wonder what the algorithm is for that.

[TooLiveBrew]

With a young player (Felix only had 177 MLB AB in 2007), it's more about talent & ML-equivalent-izing, unless I'm making a huge error. Pie is the real deal imo... not a super-slugger, but he profiles very similarly to Soriano (but probably has better plate discipline).

[MJLiverock]

I too was a little surprised that Pie is expected to SLG for more than Weeks.

[TooLiveBrew]

Now that's where you can see the three-year (or however many PECOTA uses) weighting. Weeks will SLG better than Pie, and post a better overall OPS.

[Ennder]

Those 2008 projections DO NOT represent a division-winner in my opinion.

Those projections are slightly better than the Cubs so unless you think the Reds explode on the scene I don't know what else they could point to. That would be an above average rotation and a top end offense.

 

I also might have screwed up by using WARP to compare the teams since I think I might have counted defense twice. I'm not exactly sure how WARP works for pitchers, if it removes defense and park or not. If it doesn't remove defense then I just counted defense twice in the comparison.

[TooLiveBrew]

That would be an above average rotation and a top end offense.

 

This seems to be Melvin's m.o. as a GM, doesn't it?

[MoneyballMan]

These are from the weighted mean spreadsheet which came out today. The Cards will be coming out soon.

Thanks much - actually had just answered my question with their email update I received this afternoon that indicated the spreadsheet was available today.

[PKBadger]

DrWood wrote:

considering the projections either represent a drop-off from last season, or a minor improvement, even for very young players, it is pretty pessimistic except for Cameron (which must be due to change in ballparks) and Hall (they are expecting a fair bounce-back). Last year: Weeks, .807; Cameron, .759, Braun, 1.004; Fielder 1.013; Hart, .892; Hall, .740; Hardy .786; Kendall .610.

 

Those 2008 projections DO NOT represent a division-winner in my opinion.

 

To clarify (and in part to cover my own ass because I didn't look at last year's numbers http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif), I was more excited about the balance of the lineup if Cameron and Hall live up to their PECOTA numbers. I didn't think JJ's power numbers last year were sustainable so his slight decrease doesn't worry me. Not sure that I agree with PECOTA about Fielder, but I could see Braun taking a dip in his sophomore season if pitchers are able to study him more and exploit his weaknesses.

[Scooter1027]

A couple other projections I found noteworthy:

 

Gabe Gross -- 239 PA, .267/.366/.467 (.833), 8 HR

Joe Dillon -- 467 PA, .286/.376/.501 (.877), 18 HR

 

I think they're overestimating Dillon's playing time a bit with 467 PA (I think Gross' is about right). But man, if we could get that kind of lefty/righty production out of our bench that would be huge. An .877 OPS with 18 HR...that would be bigtime stuff.

[tomwopat]

That 30.3 VORP for Joe Dillon has to be a mistake?

[joshjs]

Mark DiFelice's projection is surprising and intriguing: 3.85 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 2.5 WARP. What's this guy's story? Is he gonna be invited to camp?

[joshjs]

Oop. Looks like he is. Nice.