Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events

[DrWood]

I looked up this issue after I made my guess. What I found is that all that exists out there are educated guesses. Kinda disappointed me, since it seems a fairly easy thing to estimate--at least if you have a graduate degree in Stats or the equivalent.

[sbrylski]

Russ, the scale I like best is:

 

9 - HR

7 - 3B

5 - 2B

3 - 1B

2 - BB

1 - SB

 

(And then -2 for CS, if you wanted.)

 

But that's easiest to remember, IMO - no decimals, and essentially the same scale (~.3 overvalues 3B, ~.2 2B), but nothing too big. 123 then 579.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Interesting chart Russ. I had no thought to ranking the actual run value on a 1-10 scale.

 

Total Baseball has the "actual" run values in the books I have, so I didn't want to guess.

 

The average run value of each event

 

HR - 1.4

3B - .9

2B - .67

1B - .45

BB - .33

 

It goes on to explain that the actual value can vary minutely from year to year, with the biggest variances occurring in run values of homers. I guess it bears noting that it also applied a negative value for outs, usually right around -.2, which includes outs made on base (being thrown out at 3rd going from 1st on a single, for example).

[logan82]

I have to confess that I had previously read something about relative run values, but didn't remember much beyond SB being worth next to nothing.

[rluzinski]

I looked up this issue after I made my guess. What I found is that all that exists out there are educated guesses. Kinda disappointed me, since it seems a fairly easy thing to estimate--at least if you have a graduate degree in Stats or the equivalent.

 

The average run value of each event has been calculated many different ways (multivariable liner regression, simulations, mathematical models, etc...).

Russ, the scale I like best is:

 

Yeh, I say that on Hardballtimes, which is what prompted me to do this in the first place. very handy.

 

It goes on to explain that the actual value can vary minutely from year to year, with the biggest variances occurring in run values of homers.

 

Tango does a nice job illustrating the dependency on event run values on the overall offensive environment:

 

"Have you ever played in a softball league where the typical team scores upwards of 20 runs in a 7-inning game? Such a team will send say 51 batters to the plate, 21 of which will be out, and 20 of the other 30 batters will score. If a runner that gets on base will score two-thirds of the time, how much more valuable is the home run compared to a single? In softball, because the run environment is so high, it is important just to be able to get on base, because you know that you have a good chance at scoring.

 

Take an even more extreme example. Imagine playing in a run environment with 100+ runs scored in every game. 90% of the baserunners end up scoring. In this environment, there is very little difference between a home run and a single. Just by virtue of getting on base, you are bound to score. There is far more value in getting on base, than of moving runners over.

 

Take an extreme example the other way. Pedro Martinez provides his opposition with a very low run environment. Getting on base is not enough. Very few of those runners will end up scoring. However, if you can hit a home run, you will be adding alot of run potential to the runners on base. Not only that, but when you hit a home run, you are always guaranteed 1 run."

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/runscreated.html