Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events

[rluzinski]

I have a theory that fans have a tendency to value offensive events closer to their relative entertainment value, rather than their actual run value. Its certainly not unreasonable to want batters to do the things that are more fun to watch, so I don't blame any fan for doing it. I thought it would be interesting to test that theory and see how people would weight steals, walks, singles, doubles, triples and HRs, relative to each other in two ways:

 

* Entertainment

* What they think their relative run value actually is

 

Keep in mind, we are talking about the average, relative run value. If a batter always came up to bat with no one on, a walk and single would be worth exactly the same. Common sense tells us that a single is worth more, however, since their will often be base runners on that will be advanced more efficiently with a single than with a walk. So, try to think of the average situation and how the various events would effect how many runs a team will score and how fun it would be to see the batter performance the event.

 

Now, anyone who wants to cheat and find their relative run values could simply google it (it's pretty straight forward to calculate) to find the answer but I ask to resist the urge. And for anyone who already knows, just post your excitement weights if you'd like.

 

Finally, If I didn't already know the answer , I don't think my guess would be anywhere close to right, so I don't think the correct answers are easy to estimate. Perhaps the average guess might do a pretty good job, though and my theory will be proven wrong. It will be interesting to see.

 

Here's my entertainment estimate, to illustrate what I'm looking for. I'll use a 1 through 10 scale, using whole numbers:

 

10 home run

8 triple

5 double

3 single

2 steal

1 walk

[Ennder]

For entertainment value only.

 

Inside the park HR = 10

Triple - 8

Home Run -7

Double - 5

Steal - 3

Single - 2

Walk - 2

 

The Walk number might be weird but I love watching a hitter work the count.

[logan82]

Entertainment

 

10 - triple

 

8 - home run

 

5 - double

 

3 - single

 

2 - walk

 

2 - steal

 

I think a triple is more exciting because there is a buildup as the runner gets to second. Steals don't get me to excited unless they happen in a big spot in a game.

[sbrylski]

I'm guessing you got the inspiration for this from the same article I read the other day. In fact, I had to go find a proverb and change my sig, because I put the rounded relative weights down there. Luckily, I haven't posted on BF.net in two days...

 

 

 

In terms of just excitement, for me I'd say:

 

 

 

Walk - 1

 

Single - 3

 

Steal - 4

 

Double - 5

 

Home Run - 8

 

Triple - 10

[DuWayne Steurer]

10 Triple

 

9 Homer

 

6 Double

 

4 Single

 

3 Steal

 

1 Walk

 

 

 

Knowing the numerical values of each doesn't really affect being able to weigh the "excitement" factor involved in each type of event. And of course, the excitement of any event can change, contextually speaking. A steal in the 9th when you're down a run is far more exciting than a steal in the 4th of a game you're up 3 runs. Mathematically speaking of course, they mean the same, but the context is important when considering the "human" factor.

[lukevan]

Home Run 10

 

Triple 9

 

Double 7

 

Single 4

 

Walk 2

 

Steal 2

[Robideaux]

Relative run value:

 

HR:10

 

Triple: 8

 

double:6

 

single:4

 

walk: 3

 

steal: 1

 

 

 

By the way: can you really do a relative offensive value for a successful stolen base without somehow taking into account the risk of getting caught stealing?

 

 

 

Entertainment:

 

Inside the park home run: 10

 

home run: 9

 

triple: 8

 

double: 6

 

steal: 4

 

single: 3

 

walk: 2

[InsomniacInkRoss]

Without ranking them all, I will just say my favorite/most exciting event in baseball is a 3 run bases loaded double with a throw to the plate.

[Tbadder]

my personal entertainment value:

 

 

 

Triple 10

 

Home run 7

 

double 5

 

walk 3

 

HBP 2

 

steal 2

 

single1

 

 

 

inside the park homer 8

 

stealing home 9

[rluzinski]

By the way: can you really do a relative offensive value for a successful stolen base without somehow taking into account the risk of getting caught stealing?

 

 

 

I just wanted the value of a successful steal. You are correct that what's generally of more importance is the value of a stolen base attempt, which has to factor in CS.

 

 

 

Come on people, I need more guesses on actual relative run values.

[DrWood]

This is a complete guess on relative values, and I haven't put much thought into it either--just off the top of my head. I'll use 10=HR

 

 

 

HR=10.

 

3b=7.0

 

2b=4.5

 

1b=2.0

 

BB=1.5

 

Steal=1.0

[Fatter than Joey]

Here are my values as a fan.

 

 

 

Triple -- 10

 

Double -- 7

 

Home Run -- 6

 

Steal -- 5

 

Single -- 4

 

Walk -- 3

 

 

 

I think a Single/Walk + Steal >Double -- again as what I would rather watch.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Come on people, I need more guesses on actual relative run values.

 

I know this one (I have 2 hardcover copies of Total Baseball), but I won't spoil your fun!

 

There's a lot of great stuff in that book, if you're into real dry, fact based stuff. I have the 2001 and 2004 copies, and there's a pretty extensive section on this stuff you're talking about right here.

 

[Phenomenal Smith]

Entertainment

 

Triple - 10

 

Double -8

 

HR - 7

 

Steal - 6

 

Single - 5

 

Walk - 3

 

 

 

A lot of home runs are actually boring, IMHO.

 

 

 

Run value

 

Home Run - 10

 

Triple - 9

 

Double - 7

 

Single - 4

 

Walk - 3

 

Steal - 2

[Oldcity]

Here's my guess at run value, off the top of my head:

 

HR- 10

Triple- 7

Double- 6

Single-4

Walk- 3

Steal- 1

[pmg4]

Relative run value (a guess):

multiply by 5 to get 10-pt scale

HR: 2

3B: 1.8

2B: 1.5

1B: 0.8

BB: 0.5

Steal: 0.1

 

Entertain me!:

3B: 10

2B: 8

HR: 8

Steal: 5

1B: 2

BB: 1

[logan82]

Relative value

HR - 10

3B - 9

2B - 7

single - 4

walk - 3

steal - 1

[SupraJohnson]

Relative Value

 

HR-10

 

3B-7

 

2B-5

 

single-3

 

walk-2

 

steal-1

 

 

 

Entertainment

 

HR-10

 

3B-10

 

2B-8

 

single-5

 

walk-3

 

steal-3

[Jimbo]

Relative value:

HR = 10

3B = 7

2B = 5.5

1B = 3

BB = 2

SB = 2

[TooLiveBrew]

Entertainment value

 

BB - 3

SB - 5

1B - 4

2B - 6

3B - 9

HR - 10

[Oldcity]

So did you draw any conclusion from this Russ?

[rluzinski]

I'll take a look at this today. Thanks for the reminder.

 

EDIT: Only 8 people took a stab at guessing average relative values. Not going to be able to draw any conclusions from that. Only takes 5 minutes!

[rluzinski]

	Robieaux	DrWood	Ph Smith	Stevo	pmg4	logan	Johnson	Jimbo	AVE		Linear Weights
HR	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10.00		3	10.50
3B	8	7	9	7	9	9	7	7	7.88		2.2	7.70
2B	6	4.5	7	6	7.5	7	5	5.5	6.06		1.6	5.60
1B	4	2	4	4	4	4	3	3	3.50		1	3.50
BB	3	1.5	3	3	2.5	3	2	2	2.50		0.7	2.45
SB	1	1	2	1	0.5	1	1	2	1.19		0.4	1.40

Not sure what this tells us, other than those 8 did a pretty darn good job of guessing the realtive run values. The first "Linear Weights" column shows the relative run value of each event with a single set to 1; the second colum shows the relative values after setting the value of a single equal to the group's collective guess (3.5). HRs and SB were actually slightly undervalued by the group, which tells us that either the 8 participants are smarter than the average fan or my theory is completely wrong. I've read that even ML GMs appear to over value HRs, though, so maybe brewerfan.net just raises the bar!

[lukevan]

Rluz, you can include my estimations if you'd like to increase your sample size slightly, my guesses were estimations of what I thought was actual value.

[Oldcity]

Good stuff. Too bad we didn't have more than eight responses.