Fire Joe Morgan takes apart not-so-smart column about Moneyball/Jeremy Brown

[RyDogg66]

The wonderful blog "Fire Joe Morgan" addressed the retirement of A's prospect Jeremy Brown, the fat-kid catcher who was made famous by Michael Lewis's book, Moneyball about Billy Beane and the Oakland A's front office.

 

The blog entry is specifically about a column written by MSNBC sports writer Gary Peterson about how Brown's retirement signals the end of the Moneyball Era. It's as if the guy didnt even read the book.

 

My favorite excerpt of the article and FJM response:

 

Because of the book, Brown gained notoriety he neither sought nor welcomed. Now he has called it quits at the precise point at which Beane's Moneyball model appears to have run its course.

 

The Moneyball model has not "run its course." The Moneyball model is: find inefficiencies in the market and exploit them in order to compete with rivals who have more assets at their disposal. Apple competes with Microsoft through state-of-the-art industrial design and exemplary niche marketing. Whole Foods competes with Ralphs and Vons and Safeway by selling organic twig-based $9/box cereals that suckers like me buy because they contain flax seed. This is not a "theory" that "runs a course." This is a theory that people in all businesses have been using for centuries in order to keep up with better-funded competitors.

[trwi7]

The only certainties are that this season figures to be a competitive wash, and that Jeremy Brown will have nothing to do with it.

Connect those dots as you see fit.

Tried. Turns out those are the only two dots in this dimension that do not create a line.

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

[Oldcity]

Not only have writers/announcers made grossly incorrect statements about moneyball (written by Beane), but they continually make others, such as stating that Moneyball was all about the value of OBP when it is in fact about finding what's undervalued in the free market. OBP is far more valued now than it was when Moneyball was written.

[Jopal78]

Regardless of the tone of the original article Brown is just another in a line of First Round Pick busts. The FJM author indicates Brown retired for personal reasons but when you cannot beat out such catching heavy weights as Jason Kendall, Adam Melhuse, it is indicative of a problem despite what his minor league number say. Also, with Kurt Suzuki and Rob Bowen (!?!) ahead of him in Oakland, and Anthony Recker and Landon Powell coming up right behind him in Sacramento the writing was probably on the wall as a 29 year old soon to be six year minor leaguer. He was drafted for sign-ability reasons and was a bust...big deal. (Chad Green anyone??)

 

On a larger note, I don't think Beane has fallen off as a GM, he is going through a lean period where he had to ship off his homegrown talent, and the prospects he received and other minor league talent in house hasn't stepped up as expected, leaving the small market A's with some big holes on their roster. It very well could be a foreshadowing of the 2012 and 2013 Brewers, (lean years after some very big winning seasons)

[crewcrazy]

The MLB draft is the world's biggest crapshoot. In any other sport, you're hoping your first round pick becomes a star someday. In baseball, you just pray that your first round pick can make some kind of contribution at the major league level. I have a hard time blasting Billy Beane for his draft choices when the MLB draft is such a crapshoot and when he has often had to find guys who will sign for slot money. If anything, the decline of the A's can be blamed on the MLB Draft being broken in that teams like the Tigers can go into the draft every year and pay over the slot amounts with no penalty -- they really have no business having guys like Verlander, Andrew Miller (spun for Miguel Cabrera), and Rick Porcello. If Beane/Melvin/Any other small market GM didn't have to worry about guys refusing to sign for slot money, I think they'd have more success in picking players.

[RyDogg66]

In reality, Brown would be classified as one of the more successful players selected in the late first round of the MLB draft. Playing at AAA and even getting a callup while maintaining a .370 OBP in the minors is pretty decent. A lot of guys drafted in the mid 30s never even make it to AAA.

[joepepsi]

For a catcher he put up pretty solid offense numbers in the minors: 268/.367/.439. I don't quite understand what took him so long to get to the majors. Maybe he was terrible behind the plate. Still, if he could come have come close to those numbers in the majors he'd have had a fine career as a backup at the very least.

[rluzinski]

It's pretty silly to call Brown a first round bust anyway. He might have been drafted in the first round but everyone knew he wasn't a real first rounder. Bean didn't want to pay for one.

[RyDogg66]

It's pretty silly to call Brown a first round bust anyway. He might have been drafted in the first round but everyone knew he wasn't a real first rounder. Bean didn't want to pay for one.

He wasnt a real first rounder in the sense nobody else was going to take him, but that is true of many players. Fact is, he was a first rounder, and he played as well as if not better than most who are drafted in a similar spot. He validated Beane's belief in his major league abilities, IMO.

 

[Jopal78]

Sure the draft is a crap shoot but the fact of the matter is Beane took Brown #35 overall and regardless you expect at least some major league production out of drafting someone #35. The fact that they got zip from Brown at the major league level is proof that it was a wasted draft choice. They could have literally "passed" on that draft choice, picked up an organizational soldier to play C in the minors, and probably come out ahead from a financial perspective and broke even from a major league contribution standpoint.

[TooLiveBrew]

The fact that they got zip from Brown at the major league level is proof that it was a wasted draft choice.

Or, the fact that you & I & most others have literally zero insight as to why he retired might be relevant. To call what he's done in the minors 'a waste' is totally incorrect.

[RightFieldCoder]

Let's review who they "passed" on in that draft to take Brown.

 

#36 Chadd Blasko - Released right before the 2007 season.

#37 Steve Obenchain - Now plays in the Independent league

#38 Matt Clanton - Released in early 2005

#39 Mark Teahen - Has played in 3 Major League seasons with a career 100 OPS+. Average ML player.

#40 Mark Schramek - Has played 42 games in AA

#41 Micah Schilling - Still hasn't gotten out of A ball

 

It doesn't look like Brown at #35 was that bad of a choice.

[danzig6767]

The MLB draft is the world's biggest crapshoot. In any other sport, you're hoping your first round pick becomes a star someday. In baseball, you just pray that your first round pick can make some kind of contribution at the major league level. I have a hard time blasting Billy Beane for his draft choices when the MLB draft is such a crapshoot and when he has often had to find guys who will sign for slot money.

First of all, i think it should be obvious that Beane is a fine GM

With that said, i do think a GM should get some flack if quite a few high draft picks produce little or nothing in the bigs. To just say, well the draft is a crapshoot, that absolves the GM of blame for failure or strips away them deserving credit if a player/players do well.

 

The backbone of those good teams under Beane were Zito/Mulder/Hudson. Beane got credit in bringing in those three top notch pitchers, but if the draft is just a crapshoot, he then shouldn't have deserved any credit for the great drafting. It can't be that he deserved great credit for all the fine drafting the A's did for a number of those years and now that the A's drafting hasn't been good as of late, just say oh well it's not his fault since the draft is only a crapshoot.

 

That line of thinking also means guys like Gallardo/Hart/Hardy etc should be taken off Jack Z's resume because it had to be mostly luck because the draft is mainly a crapshoot. For me, i'd just say Beane and his staff of scouts have done a poor job of drafting lately compared to years in the past.

[Kurt]

The only mistake Beane made in that draft was to say that Prince Fielder was too fat even for the A's. I respect Beane and Moneyball but it sure was great to see Prince become THE YOUNGEST EVER TO HIT 50 HOME RUNS after getting dissed like he did in moneyball.

[Kurt]

and if you really want to see how much of a crapshoots drafts are, look no further then the history of the Brewer's first round drafts. Between 1991 and 2001, Only three quality mlb players came out of those 16 picks. Geoff Jenkins, Jeff D'Amico and Ben Sheets. (and i'm stretching it a bit including D'Amico on that list.)

[trwi7]

Let's review who they "passed" on in that draft to take Brown.

 

#36 Chadd Blasko - Released right before the 2007 season.

#37 Steve Obenchain - Now plays in the Independent league

#38 Matt Clanton - Released in early 2005

#39 Mark Teahen - Has played in 3 Major League seasons with a career 100 OPS+. Average ML player.

#40 Mark Schramek - Has played 42 games in AA

#41 Micah Schilling - Still hasn't gotten out of A ball

 

It doesn't look like Brown at #35 was that bad of a choice.

Yep the draft is a total crapshoot. Look at other players from that draft.

• #44 Joey Votto
• #50 Micah Owings
• #54 Dave Bush
• #57 Jon Lester
• #60 Jonathan Broxton
• #64 Brian McCann
• #68 Chris Snyder
• #74 Elijah Dukes
• #80 Curtis Granderson
• #112 Rich Hill
• #136 Hayden Penn
• #166 John Maine
• #173 Scott Olsen
• #182 Pat Neshek
• #193 Matt Capps
• #294 Howie Kendrick

And that's just from the first 10 rounds of that one draft.

[logan82]

crewcrazy[/b]]The MLB draft is the world's biggest crapshoot.

I was going to disagree with this at first as the draft in any sport is a crapshoot. I think something like 50% of first round picks in the NFL draft never turn out. Of course when we are talking about the MLB draft we are looking at a large pool of players playing against varying degrees of talent. At least in the NBA, NFL and to some extent the NHL(hockey club teams) they have all played at a level beyond high school and the worst players are already taken out. We are also talking about 18 year olds who have not yet reached their full maturity physically. We talk about a player's peak being at 28 years old so basically the MLB is trying to project what a kid is going to be like a decade in advance. The advantage that the MLB does have is the minor league system. It allows you to have bad drafts where you may miss on 75% of your picks and still put together a pretty solid team through the draft. Basically you have to have quite a few years where you draft absolutely nobody to completely deplete your minor league system. Teams can keep control of their players for a minimum of 12 1/2 years if they want to.

[Bikeage77]

The only guy from those next few picks that got to the bigs was Mark Teahan I believe as a 3rd baseman), and the A's drafted him before shipping him to the Royals, correct?

[RyDogg66]

The only guy from those next few picks that got to the bigs was Mark Teahan I believe as a 3rd baseman), and the A's drafted him before shipping him to the Royals, correct?

June 4, 2002: Drafted by the Oakland Athletics in the 1st round (39th pick) of the 2002 amateur draft. Player signed June 9, 2002.

June 24, 2004: Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Oakland Athletics with Mike Wood to the Kansas City Royals. The Houston Astros sent Octavio Dotel to the Oakland Athletics. The Houston Astros sent John Buck and cash to the Kansas City Royals. The Kansas City Royals sent Carlos Beltran to the Houston Astros.

 

 

[Brewguru2]

Fact is, he was a first rounder, and he played as well as if not better than most who are drafted in a similar spot. He validated Beane's belief in his major league abilities, IMO.

 

 

Major league abilities? He played 10 games in the majors!!! What major league abilities??

 

I read the FJM column yesterday and he mentioned that Brown was "not a failure" and "had a good career". He did? The object of drafting players is to get them to the major leagues. The goal of every player in the minor leagues is to be a successful major leaguer. Brown was a bust, plain and simple.

 

And the fact he retired for "personal reasons" doesn't matter. He wasn't any closer at 28 from reaching the majors as he was 3 years ago.

[RyDogg66]

So what are you saying? I am saying that he had a good minor league career and made it to the Majors, albeit for just 10 games. I'd call that successful on the continuum of a MLB draft pick's career. He certainly has to be better than guys like Tyrone Hill, Kenny Henderson, JM Gold, Chad Green, etc.

[Brewguru2]

I'm saying I don't care if he was Crash Davis. He wasn't in the Show, so he wasn't successful. He was a bust.

[TooLiveBrew]

Major league abilities? He played 10 games in the majors!!! What major league abilities??

 

Go search for C that had the sustained success he did in the minors. You won't find many.

 

 

I'm saying I don't care if he was Crash Davis. He wasn't in the Show, so he wasn't successful. He was a bust

 

Glad you're here to clear these things up

[Oldcity]

The only mistake Beane made in that draft was to say that Prince Fielder was too fat even for the A's. I respect Beane and Moneyball but it sure was great to see Prince become THE YOUNGEST EVER TO HIT 50 HOME RUNS after getting dissed like he did in moneyball.

Again, this is possibly another misconception. Beane is never quoted as saying that. Michael Lewis stated it without quoting anyone in the organization. Also, if you recall the brief moment during the draft where the A's thought Nick Swisher would not be available to them, one of the scouts suggested Fielder, so that would at least imply that Beane hadn't sworn him off as a pick.

[Oldcity]

Yep the draft is a total crapshoot. Look at other players from that draft.

• #44 Joey Votto
• #50 Micah Owings
• #54 Dave Bush
• #57 Jon Lester
• #60 Jonathan Broxton
• #64 Brian McCann
• #68 Chris Snyder
• #74 Elijah Dukes
• #80 Curtis Granderson
• #112 Rich Hill
• #136 Hayden Penn
• #166 John Maine
• #173 Scott Olsen
• #182 Pat Neshek
• #193 Matt Capps
• #294 Howie Kendrick

And that's just from the first 10 rounds of that one draft.

Not sure if you're using this as evidence that the draft is or isn't a crapshoot. But in the case that you were trying to say it's not, that list actually proves that it is, indeed, a crapshoot. The fact that some of the best players out of the draft fell that far (which happens every year) should prove that point.