How does Japanese baseball transfer to MLB?

[BREWCREW5]

I was wondering at what level does Japanese ball transfer to MLB? Would it be considered like triple A level or right at the major league level? I dont want to make this into a Fukudome thread.

 

Major league baseball is supposed to be the best players and most difficult baseball in the world. I guess I am wondering how Fukudome, someone who is a career .305 hitter and has averaged 29 home runs from 03-06 is going to translate to the majors.

 

I am predicting .260's and 15-20 home runs.

[Ennder]

There is no easy answer. OBP seems to transfer better than SLG. Fielding transfers better than offense. Top end players seem to transfer better than simply good players.

[Weirdos19]

192 HR in 9 seasons? Aren't the Japanese stadiums much smaller that American stadiums? If I remember right, Matsui hit over 50 home runs in one season over there. I would guess most of those HR turn into warning track fly balls.

 

Prediction: .280/15/80 with 20-30 SB

 

Corey Hart light.

[ccbrew]

There's not really a formula or conversion that can be used across the board. It really has to be taken on a case-by-case basis. The different style of play makes the comparison difficult.

 

Players have been surprisingly good - Tomo Ohka was nothing special in the NPB, signed a minor league free agent contract and actually was a serviceable MLB starter.

Players have been surprisingly bad - Kaz Matsui was a gold-glove fielder, had good power, and a lot of speed. Hasn't exactly worked out for him. His numbers in Colorado last season are deceiving - check out his splits. Ugh.

Players have been predictably good - Needless to say, Ichiro's skills transferred well to MLB-play.

Player have been predictably bad - Masumi Kuwata had a lot of success in Japan, but was clearly washed up when he signed a minor league deal here. Brewers fans should remember him well. Nori Nakamura was a power hitter in Japan but even my amateur scouting eyes could see that his swing was way too loopy to have any success here - cut after Spring Training with the Dodgers.

 

The unpredictability goes the other way around as well. There are plenty of fringe MLB, AAAA-type players that are lured to Japan by bigger contracts every year. Some end up having great success while other fall flat on their face. Joe Dillon struggled so much (both at the plate and defensively) that he was sent down to the Japanese minors for most of the 2006 season, only to find himself on a big league roster the following year. One-time Brewer Angel Echevarria played himself out of MLB but hit 30+ home runs in his first year in Japan.

[RoseBowlMtg]

Amazing how the powers of Japanese baseball get a boatload of money for their players. I wonder if the powers of Latin America ball is saying "How'd they do that?"

[craigharmann]

Don't forget to add So (Taguchi) in your comparisions. That dude could rake. Flat out awesome!

[ShinyaSS]

Hideki Matsui's homeground, Tokyo Dome Stadium, is a hitter's park. We often see strange HRs called Dome-run. But Fukudome's Nagoya Dome is one of the biggest stadiums in Japan. So it is difficult to compare their stats. Generally, Japanese funs predict Fukudome will produce AVG 260-310, OBP 320-380, HR 10-20 if he is healthy.

Last year, Fukudome reveived about 3.5m. This was the 3rd highest salary in NPB. No team can pay 48m/4...

[dadofandrew]

His SLG will drop off a cliff, but the rest will probably fall about 10%. He'll be a solid player.

 

Dave Pinto discussed this as well.

[TooLiveBrew]

To the statheads out there...

 

I agree with doa on his SLG% - so isn't the OBP supposed to follow? Not meaning that it too would 'fall off a cliff', but if the SLG is expected to dip quite a bit, shouldn't the OBP be expected to drop more than appx. 10%?

[Brewtacular]

I will use this thread to plug a couple of great books on Japanese baseball. They give a great insight into the game over there, and here, and along the way explain the cultural differences we have. Great books!

 

The author of both is Robert Whiting

 

You Gotta have Wa....based in the late 80s early 90s......more about Japanese baseball and some of its early issues with MLB

 

The Meaning of Ichiro...Not just about Ichiro...chpaters about Nomo and the maverick he was for coming here(made me love him) Hideki Matsui, Bobby V before he returned, This book is more relevant for us.

 

Also he did 4 columns for the Japan Times on how MLB is effecting NPB....good reads on how the old boys club that runs NPB

 

 

I lived over there and have a great interest in NPB..hence my avatar.

[dadofandrew]

To be very simplistic, SLG drops so much because Japan's parks are so tiny. OBP falls because the quality of play is so much better.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks, doa - that I actually am aware of. I mean specifically the correlation between SLG%/ISO & OBP. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[AmyintheSouth]

One thing to be considered regarding transfer of production is the difference in number of games played and travel involved. I just read an interesting interview with Hideki Okajima where he talked about just praying he wouldn't get called up to pitch near the end of the season because he was so tired and how flying for so long to the west coast made him dizzy and gave him headaches. There also more off days in the Japanese schedule. So for the first year at least, it would be probably like transitioning from the shorter season in AAA to the majors, where you would probably start seeing a dropoff in August or September.

[TerraceReserved]

Nate Silver has a post on this at the Unfiltered blog over at BP.

 

http://baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=699

 

 

PECOTA has Fukodome with a pretty impressive line. As far as I know thats the only projection system thats tried Fukodome.

 

PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG EqA VORP WARP

465 80 30 4 15 58 70 94 9 3 . 289 .401 .504 .303 29.2 4.4

[Klements Bratwurst]

Dave Pinto discussed this as well

I kind of came back off the cliff when I read this at his blog. He said Fukudome is Torii Hunter without the bang, but better at getting on base.

 

The .360/.450 line that he mentions is something that Corey Hart has already blown past already at a much younger age. For sure, he will bring great defense to right field, but what if his surgery on his elbow, hampers his throwing (was it his throwing arm?) or for that matter his hitting???

 

He is also replacing Cliff Floyd (.373/.422) in 282 AB's and Jacque Jones (.335/.400) in 453 AB's. Jones certainly provided good defense, and Floyd some great OBP. If you believe the .360/.450 line from Dave Pinto's blog, the improvement over Floyd and Jones isn't that great. Also, a good portion of the Cubs games in April and May are played at a freezing and wind blown Wrigley Field, so I would think this would greatly hamper Fukudome's slugging number. It seemed that this past year, nary a Cub could hit one out of Wrigley early in the season (except Prince on that cold April extra inning game!)

 

I think it is a good signing for them, but I don't see him being Ichiro.

[TooLiveBrew]

The .360/.450 line that he mentions...

 

That sounds much more accurate. I'd think .375/.450 is plausible (that .360 seems a tad low/cautious). I think a good way for Brewers fans to think about this signing is our of Kendall (disclaimer: I am neither asserting that Kendall is as good or better, nor comparing the two head-to-head). Fukudome fills a specific need/needs for the Cubs, so the fact that he probably won't be a (super)star isn't really a big deal. I'd be ecstatic to add a .360+ OBP at either 3B or LF to our squad.

[Klements Bratwurst]

I'd be ecstatic to add a .360+ OBP at either 3B or LF to our squad.

I certainly agree that this is what Doug needs to do. As discussed a million times, adding Scott Rolen to third base would certainly help us negate this pickup of Fukudome for the Cubs. I think Fukudome would be slightly better than the .360 too, but I don't anticipate a .900+ OPS out of him.

 

I can just see Northsidebaseball.com now. They probably already figure on a World Series win in 2008. Not a sure thing in my book, as there is so much more offseason to go and of course there is this thing called a season that has to be played. I would rather go to war with the Brewers youthful studs than the Cubs studs who are all at their peak or starting to move past it.

 

Who could see an major injury to Aram or Soriano again in 2008? Something about Zambrano also screams an injury too.