Brewer Closer after 2008

[Prince James]

With the astronomical costs for a decent closer nowadays, I was thinking beyond the 2008 season and what the Brewers might have in mind. I don't believe we have any closer-style of pitcher in the minors at the moment who we could expect to be here in the next 2 years, so it would seem we need to keep signing guys, or hope to sign/trade to get a non-closer and develop him into a decent closer. That said, I wanted Rafael Soriano so bad before the Braves got him in the 06-07 offseason and I think a guy like him could have very well served as our closer for 2-3 years.

I just shudder to think about wasting these years with this potentially great offense by putting out a sub-par closer (i.e. Cincy Reds). I like what the Crew did this year and they did not mortgage their future doing it. However, we and they know that it will all start over again next year with filling the closer role. Gagne won't be here no matter what in 2009. Turnbow might be the best option with his contract, but I don't expect him to regain that status. I don't know much about Riske, but the little I do know tells me that he is not the long term option at that role. Maybe a guy like McClung will emerge, but that is unlikely. I have nothing to back my thoughts up here other than feelings.

What I want to know most is if there are any closer options ascending in the minors? (if, in fact, closers are developed in the minors...) If nobody is ready for next year, then do you think we start 2009 with another slew of 1 year contracts or do we look to make a big time signing of a proven closer or a reliable setup man who could be easily converted to closer?

It is this issue which has me most worried about the upcoming years more than anything else. I like our plan for 2008 and I bet it will work out, but I am not certain that we could land so many relatively proven pitchers for 1 year deals as we have this year. Please tell me that we won't waste the upcoming years after 2008 we have with these guys by throwing out a cruddy bullpen, or lose most of them by signing some closer for a monstrous multi-year salary.

Note - Whay do I always start looking beyond the current season right before it is about to start?

[Time for a Miller]

I think Turnbow is probably our best option. I'm guessing he saves a few games this year actually. If Gagne gets hurt we might see Turnbow return to rockstar status in 2008. The casual fans really treat him unfairly and have probably cost us any possibility of a home town discount. This is to bad since he is really a quality pitcher. He did cause me to break my phone during his meltdown time after the all-star game, but I'm forgiving and his numbers are always there. It was the bobble-head that cursed Mungo.

[BrewCrewForever]

I would hope that if Gagne has a nice season that DM would try to sign him to a new deal.

 

If not, Turnbow would be my choice. He has had his stuggles but gets a bad rap, he actually had a very nice season last year.

[logan82]

Turnbow

I don't like slotting the best reliever on the team into the closer's role. I think Turnbow is a very good reliever, but with his history of giving up walks, he is best brought in at the start of innings or with very few men on. I would rather free up the best relievers to come in whenever needed. Of course that isn't how things get done at the MLB level

[Time for a Miller]

If Gagne is our best reliever he should be used in the highest leverage situation which is often times not the start of the ninth inning with 3-runs or less. I think Turnbow should be the closer this year. It should be his bread and butter. Coming in with the bases empty and either shutting the other team down or blowing up seems to fit Turnbow's style of pitching to the letter.

[razzzorsharp]

Riske. I think he will be very,very good and go into that roll next year.

 

A darkhouse pick would be drafting a polished college arm with one of our many picks ala H. Street.

[Fatter than Joey]

I don't like slotting the best reliever on the team into the closer's role.

 

I agree 100% -- For the sake of this argument -- let's use the term "bullpen stud", and assume that each team needs to have a good one to be competitive.

 

The casual fans really treat him unfairly and have probably cost us any possibility of a home town discount. This is to bad since he is really a quality pitcher.

 

I am not sure what you mean by quality pitcher. If you mean "bullpen stud" -- I would disagree. If you mean "middle reliever" -- I would be ok with that.

 

As far as a home town discount goes, I believe that Turnbow has damaged his value himself -- Frankly, I think if he had any tangible value, he'd have been traded by now.

 

If not, Turnbow would be my choice. He has had his stuggles but gets a bad rap, he actually had a very nice season last year.

 

I think 2007 was pretty bad for Turnbow (again with regard to Turnbow being a high quality BP pitcher).

 

I hope we can agree that 2005 was awesome, 2006 sucked... Let's look at 2007

 

BB/9

2005 -- .36

2006 -- .69

2007 -- .68

 

K/9

2005 -- .95

2006 -- 1.2

2007 -- 1.2

 

K/BB

2005 -- 2.7

2006 -- 1.8

2007 -- 1.8

 

BF/IP

2005 -- 4.0

2006 -- 4.7

2007 -- 4.3

 

BAbip

2005 -- .249

2006 -- .333

2007 -- .258.

 

It seems to me that 2007 was more like 2006 than 2005. I think the difference in 2007, was that Turnbow spent the entire 2007 being backed up by CoCo and others.

 

Here is a Turnbow gamelog that I put together... Here is a recap of Yost calling for the fans to give Turnbow a break...

[brewjihad]

I don't believe we have any closer-style of pitcher in the minors at the moment who we could expect to be here in the next 2 years.

Luis Pena may not be the next great closer, but he definitely has potential as a late-inninngs guy. It'll be interesting to see how he fares closing at AAA this year because he could be a legitimate candidate for a major bullpen role in '09.

[endaround]

Turnbow can't go back to back days, likely because in order to maintain any control he no longer has much of a windup. This likely leads to more strain on certain muscles. All that means is that he shouldn't close. Risek isn't much better than Turnbow as a pitcher though he can likely go moee days in a row.

[splitterpfj]

There are many possibilities. First off, almost none of the current relievers are signed beyond this year, a fresh batch of one-year veterans is always possible. I also think Pena will at least get a shot at 8th innings if he has a solid season in AAA.

 

With so many draft picks this year, it makes sense to me to take a shot at a college closer, some of them move very quickly, as in Chad Cordero and Huston Street.

 

One other possibility would be jumping into the bidding war for Joe Nathan. Nathan wants to allow his family to stay where they are in Minnesota, which would probably be possible if he signed with the Brewers. Forget what you knew about payroll limits in Milwaukee, until Mr Attanasio stops spending, none of us knows what he's willing to pay for players.

[JohnBriggs12]

Keep an eye on D-Back's Juan Cruz. Has closer stuff and will be a FA.

[Ennder]

I'm semi worried that almost our entire bullpen walks after this year, but on the other hand I think we have some talent in the minors that could be viable and I'm sure we can sign a guy or two next year so I'm not going to lose sleep over it. Closer is not one of the more important players on the team, but a deep bullpen is very important.

[trouty42]

I don't believe we have any closer-style of pitcher in the minors at the moment who we could expect to be here in the next 2 years.

Luis Pena may not be the next great closer, but he definitely has potential as a late-inninngs guy. It'll be interesting to see how he fares closing at AAA this year because he could be a legitimate candidate for a major bullpen role in '09.

 

Jeffress has also been mentioned as a possible future closer type guy, just because of his ++ fastball. But I think he's going to be given every opportunity to start first, and his arrival in the majors is probably 2 to 3 years away. As long as he can stay away from the reefer.

[RayKingsForemanGrill]

Prince James:

 

I can't tell you how happy it makes me to see that a poorly created Microsoft Paint Bill Hall homage I made almost two years ago is your avatar.

 

Well done sir... I went and revisited that old Bill Hall thread... classic... I'm mostly a lurker here, I think that's where about half of my posts came from...

 

(Re: topic - it doesn't matter - we'll either a) groom someone from within the ranks who will be stellar at first, make the all star team and then fade away... or b) Melvin will just make a trade with Texas, or sign someone who was once undervalued in Texas... this is how these things go...

[Prince James]

Luis Pena may not be the next great closer, but he definitely has potential as a late-inninngs guy. It'll be interesting to see how he fares closing at AAA this year because he could be a legitimate candidate for a major bullpen role in '09.

Yeah, Pena. I completely forgot about him. It makes me feel a little better knowing that there is at least one guy coming through our system who might be of service as a closer or late inning guy.

 

RayKingsForemanGrill. I like your tag name and I appreciate you supporting the fact that I stole the Bill Hall Godfather picture from you. That Bill Hall thread is my all time favorite thread. Not to change the topic, but I was also the guy who was calling down to Nettleton, Mississippi, to find out if there was an official Bill Hall Day.

 

Wait, can Bill Hall close games?

[brettac1]

I could see it being Riske. I wouldn't expect it to be Gagne, for sure.

 

Most likely someone who isn't on the roster right now, probably acquired via trade next offseason.

[GAME05]

no way I see Gagne as a closer again in 09 no matter how well he pitches, because he'd be worth a couple picks if he becomes a Class A FA.

 

to me, Riske seems the clear favourite to take over. I'd tell Turnbow he's too good in the 8th inning to take over the closer's role again.

[Time for a Miller]

Frankly, I think if he had any tangible value, he'd have been traded by now.

 

I guess I do not understand what you mean by tangible value since the price we are paying for Turnbow is reasonable for what he gave us in 2006 and 2007 and cheap for his pre bobble-head numbers. He can be a bullpen stud when "he is right." It is just weird for a pitcher (not as much for a relief pitcher I suppose) to be so good at times, and then really bad in other outings. That would seem to indicate to me that he is tired or something else is going on. I'm still a fan of Turnbow and think he can get his k/bb ratio back to a dominating position.

[Fatter than Joey]

I guess I do not understand what you mean by tangible value

 

Trade value.

 

That would seem to indicate to me that he is tired or something else is going on.

 

I think it is as simple is that he can't locate his pitches. If he can't locate his breaking pitches, he gets crushed, as his fastball is rather mediocre.

[BrewCrewForever]

no way I see Gagne as a closer again in 09 no matter how well he pitches, because he'd be worth a couple picks if he becomes a Class A FA.

 

to me, Riske seems the clear favourite to take over. I'd tell Turnbow he's too good in the 8th inning to take over the closer's role again.

I see your point, but if Gagne has a good year why let him walk? We keep developing good closers and then let them walk away. Why not bring some stability to the role? Look at Rivera how long has he been in NY?

 

[endaround]

Because old closers stink in general. Stability is highly overrated.

[Tbadder]

I don't see anyone on the horizon. That's why I'm predicting that the Brewers draft the best college closer available in June. They'll go thru a series of stop-gap measures and then in three years have a more permanent solution.

[recte44]

I could easily see Luismar Pena emerge and take this on in a cheap way, ala Manny Corpas.