Eric Gagne will save 40 games this year

[Gopher74]

I don't blame Yost for bringing in his closer with a 3-1 lead. Yes it was the 4th day in a row, but closers pitch 4, 5, even 6 days in a row ALL THE TIME. Cordero pitched 4 days in a row 3times last year. Turnbow pitched 4 days in a row 2 times the year before. It was the right choice to bring him in to get the bottom 3 guys in the order.

 

First of all, I'd appreciate if you could inform me of more than one pitcher, and closer at that or at least power pitcher, who's pitched 6 days in a row in the past 30 years? Maybe a couple, but it's most definitely not something that happens "all the time". Nor is 5, and while 4 is a little bit more common, it's not common when you're talking about a pitcher who's very name illicits memories of serious injuries that cost him large chunks of his career.

So aside from me not believing that pitchers do this all the time at all, even if I accepted that as fact, I don't think it means anything as Gange's a different situation.

 

The one thing I wish Ned would have done was leave Gagne in to finish the inning. The previous 2 times he blew leads, he buckled down and get them to the 10th inning. I think he would have done the same thing yesterday and gotten them to the 11th.

Except for that 5 pitch walk to the next hitter.

 

 

 

Edit-I see the consecutive days issue has been resolved.

[Gopher74]

Can you back this up without citing Ned Yost's closer usage? Honest question. You yelled this, and then proceeded to produce two examples showing that Yost misused his closers consistently.

And by consistently, you mean pretty much just one time, right?

Using Gange and using Cordero on 4-5 consecutive days are two very different things. Also, I believe that one of Coco's saves last year during that run was a 1 pitch save.

 

But could you back this up citing Ned Yost's closer usage? As I said, I don't agree with this particular time. But I'm not going to make that leap from not agreeing how he did it this one time to me saying that I don't agree with how he's done it "consistently" because of it.

 

[DrWood]

He's giving the team lots of opportunities for late inning comeback wins. This should help the team in this situation later, when he or another pitcher isn't doing it on purpose. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[endaround]

I'm pretty sure Gagne's plan is that since he loves Milwaukee so much he's going to have bunch of blown saves and a high ERA so Milwaukee can afford him again next year!

[BrewCrewForever]

I'm still not giving up on my boy even after the 4th blown save. I know he should not have hit Izturis or given up the hit to who I think is the newest "Brewers Killer" Schumacher but he did strike out Ankiel and get Pujols to ground into that DP ball that Weeks screwed. So although it was a BS, it should have been his 7th save. I hate to say he has had some bad luck, but he really has. Hopefully he can run off like 10 or more in a row starting now and make everyone forget about the blown saves and still end up with 40+ by seasons end.

[Bucky Rules]

In spite of the blown saves, I think he's pitched pretty well with the exception of his first game and then again earlier this week in his 4th game in 4 days. The blown save to Cincy was a pop fly to Patterson that made it into the Mercedes pit. And yesterday was a routine double play ball to get him out of it. He's not the Gagne of old that was simply untouchable, but he's still good enough to be a pretty darn good closer. I think he'll be fine as long as he's mentally tough enough to deal with this rough stretch of bad results. I think he is.

[SeriesFinale]

I'm less concerned about him getting his 40 saves and more concerned about him avoiding double-digit blown saves.

 

Sometimes he's looked great, sometimes he's looked great just after looking terrible in the same inning. I still have some confidence, but I wish my stomach didn't drop every time I see him toeing the rubber in the 9th

[BrewCrewForever]

I'm less concerned about him getting his 40 saves and more concerned about him avoiding double-digit blown saves.

 

Sometimes he's looked great, sometimes he's looked great just after looking terrible in the same inning. I still have some confidence, but I wish my stomach didn't drop every time I see him toeing the rubber in the 9th

I agree, I hope he can keep the blown saves under 10. If he does that he will for sure get 40. And even though he is one of my favorite players I to get a little nervous when he is in because I know although still a very good closer he isn't the Gagne of 2002-2005 that just shut down anyone in his way. But two major surguries will do that to a pitcher and I accept that.

[TooLiveBrew]

And by consistently, you mean pretty much just one time, right?

 

No, I mean consitently. And I have no desire to get into another screaming match with you.

[jazzytrav]

I bet Rollie Fingers was called in to save games after pitching the 3 previous days. FIRE HARVEY KUENN!

Wrong.

 

1981

1982

 

Rollie Fingers had zero instances of pitching 4 straight games in '81 and '82. He rarely even pitched for 3 consecutive games in '81, and it was even more rare in '82.

[Bucky Rules]

Rollie often times pitched more than one inning in a game. Probably not the best guy for comparison's sake.

[jazzytrav]

I agree. I was just pointing out a flaw in the statement.

 

Also, when looking at the game logs, it appears that when he was in there for longer stints, he had several days off before and several off after.

[Robideaux]

Should Gagne have pitched X number of games in a row? No.

 

But, in my opinion, Gagne's problem is not that his arm is overtaxed, it's that he just isn't good anymore.

 

I was having a conversation with my boss, who is a big Gagne fan (why?), who was trying to defend him by saying that Gagne only pitches bad when it is wet/raining. I had to do everything in my power to bite my tongue so I didn't respond with "Gagne only pitches bad when he's breathing."

 

Gagne's failings are not on Ned Yost, they rest squarely on the shoulders of Doug Melvin.

 

Just for the record, I was totally in the "sign Gagne" camp this offseason. I thought, looking at his numbers, that the Red Sox thing was just a blip--small sample size, etc.--but I, like Doug Melvin, was wrong. Gagne totally blows (saves).

 

The sooner we cut our losses and install Riske, Mota, or whomever else as our closer, the better our chances of making the playoffs.

[TooLiveBrew]

I thought, looking at his numbers, that the Red Sox thing was just a blip--small sample size, etc.

 

Why account for small sample then but not now?

[GormanHarvey]

Robideaux wrote:

The sooner we cut our losses and install Riske, Mota, or whomever else as our closer, the better our chances of making the playoffs

I am pulling for Gagne and I do think he is going to end up doing a good job for us overall, but I can't say that I disagree with people that don't like him or those that think he has lost it...BUT....when I got to the part of your post where you talked about installing Riske as the closer being an option I just about fell out of my chair. Like I said, I'm not entirely sure that Gagne will be as effective as I hope, but have you seen Riske throw a pitch this year that actually looked like something that should get people out? Stuff wise Gagne and Riske aren't even in the same league. Plus, for a control guy Riske's command has been awful

[Robideaux]

2LiveBrew,

 

Good point. I think 2 reasons:

 

1. At a certain point a series of small sample sizes becomes a trend. I think we are heading in that direction.

2. I am a stats guy, but I don't discount purely emperical data. Prior to this season, I had to rely solely on stats and scouts. Now I've watched him pitch this season, and I am no scout, but his fastball is average at best. I hope I'm wrong, but he looks like he doesn't have IT anymore.

[TooLiveBrew]

Well you're right that he doesn't have 'IT'/his stuff from his prime in LA. However, I disagree with you that he has an average FB -- can't just grade a FB on velocity imo (perhaps that's not what you were doing). He's still a good reliever, and we signed him to a really low-risk deal.

 

At a certain point a series of small sample sizes becomes a trend. I think we are heading in that direction.

 

Gagne certainly could be 'heading in that direction', but I don't think there's anything to indicate so just yet. You're talking just 8 2/3 IP, with 6 'stellar/good' appearances and 4 'poor/bad' appearances. I know it can be hard to be patient once the season starts, but people are just making too much of Gagne imo. When he throws a brilliant inning, it's 'He's supposed to do that', and when he gets touched, it's, 'He's supposed to never do that!'.

 

As a throw-in, the HR he gave up to Bako in CIN (game-tying) would have been a lazy flyball out in the majority of MLB parks.

[mikerollins]

So you are fully aware that between Fukodome's HR on opening day and Encarnacian's HR 9 appearances later that Gagne gave up

 

3 hits and a lone solo HR to Corey Patterson that landed in the picnic area instead of Corey Hart's glove because it's 10 feet shorter than it used to be.

 

In those 8 innings, he saved 6 games. Gave up 3 hits (one of them a solo HR).

 

I will look at the outing against the Cubs when Fukodome hit one out and the outing the other day when he gave up the back to back HR's as the abberation, while the other 8 outings the norm.

 

He pitched great against the Cards yesterday. He struck out the lead-off hitter on a changeup that didn't get called strike 3. They he hits the guy in the elbow. He gives up a single just out of the reach of JJ Hardy, then proceeds to strike out Ankiel and get Pujols to ground into a game ending double play.

 

Aside from the HR to Fukodome, and the back to back HR's to Encarnaceon and Bako, he's been lights out.

 

I expect him to save 40 games this year. And expect him to continue to look dominant in doing so.

[mikerollins]

I was having a conversation with my boss, who is a big Gagne fan (why?), who was trying to defend him

If you want to look smart in front of your boss, I recommend you agree with him on this one.

 

Anyone who understands baseball sees that Gagne has pitched well, and just been touched be a few HR's and unlucky situations. He's a turned DP from weeks and a picnic area in right field at Miller Park away from leading the league in saves and converting on 8 out of his 10 saves.

 

He's still one of the elite closers in the game and will continue to be this year, despite his early string of bad luck.

 

So, if you want to look smart in front of your boss...I would change your tune on this topic, if I were you.

[Robideaux]

Over his last 42 innings Gagne has an ERA of 6.43. Has any elite closer ever had a similar stretch of "bad luck" for that long and then reverted to elite form?

 

To be fair, he doesn't need to be elite, just good enough for the Brewers to make the playoffs. Has any good closer been that bad for 42 innings and then was good again after?

[logan82]

Robideaux wrote:

The sooner we cut our losses and install Riske, Mota, or whomever else as our closer, the better our chances of making the playoffs.

I don't like wasting a guy who can pitch multiple innings in the closers role.

 

Like it or not, once a guy is named as a closer he becomes a one inning pitcher. This is not a Ned Yost thing either. This is something 80-90% of MLB managers do. I think there are a lot of people who don't understand this. It seems that the popular opinion is that the best reliever needs to be the closer, but then many of those same people get upset with the closer being used wrong. Why then wouldn't you want a lesser reliever in the closers role if you hate how a closer is used?

[TooLiveBrew]

To be fair, he doesn't need to be elite, just good enough for the Brewers to make the playoffs. Has any good closer been that bad for 42 innings and then was good again after?

 

Don't fall into the trap of using ERA to gauge a pitcher, especially a reliever. Your quote says it all -- "42 innings". You can't really get much smaller-sample than that. With Gagne, just watch his stuff & command as he pitches. If his stuff & command matched up with his results (which they most certainly don't thus far in 2008), then I'd definitely share your concern(s). But Eric's looked good so far, and fortunately for him, he's not in a huge city that would have the power of 10,000 Haudricourts screaming that, 'Gagne just can't pitch on the big stage! Hee suckz!'

[curveballinthedirt]

I was in touch with Stats, Inc. and pulled this interesting stat about games won by the team whose closer blew the save: Gagne has a chance to shatter this one: (also found on www.brewtownbeat.blogspot.com)

 

1978

Bruce Sutter, Cubs

8

 

1976

Rollie Fingers, Athletics

7

 

1983

Joey McLaughlin, Blue Jays

7

 

1998

Doug Jones, Brewers

7

 

1969

Frank Linzy, Giants

6

 

1970

Dick Selma, Phillies

6

 

1975

Steve Foucault, Rangers

6

 

1976

Bill Campbell, Twins

6

 

1976

John Hiller, Tigers

6

 

1978

Gary Lavelle, Giants

6

 

1982

Steve Howe, Dodgers

6

 

1983

Dan Quisenberry, Royals

6

 

1984

Lee Smith, Cubs

6

 

1985

Ted Power, Reds

6

 

1986

Greg Harris, Rangers

6

 

1986

Dave Righetti, Yankees

6

 

1987

Dan Plesac, Brewers

6

 

1987

Mark Williamson, Orioles

6

 

1987

John Franco, Reds

6

 

1987

Dave Righetti, Yankees

6

 

1988

Bryan Harvey, Angels

6

 

1989

Tom Gordon, Royals

6

 

1989

Tim Burke, Expos

6

 

1990

Rob Dibble, Reds

6

 

1990

Jay Howell, Dodgers

6

 

1991

Mitch Williams, Phillies

6

 

1992

Jeff Reardon, Braves

6

 

1997

Roberto Hernandez, Giants

6

 

2007

Francisco Rodriguez, Angels

6

[Fatter than Joey]

But Eric's looked good so far,

 

I think he has looked inconsistent.

[SeriesFinale]

Please don't let Gagne come close to that record...

 

At any rate I'm shocked to look back and see that Plesac blew 6 saves that season...I loved Rollie Fingers as a kid but the first "shutdown" Brewers' closer I clearly remember was Plesac.